Hochul dominates potential challengers in new Siena poll

Gov. Kathy Hochul would easily win the 2026 Democratic primary for governor if it were held today, according to a new Siena poll released on Monday, which found that the governor would receive 46% of the vote, while potential primary challengers Rep. Ritchie Torres and Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado would only receive 10% and 11%, respectively.

Both Torres, who is exploring a primary challenge against Hochul, and Delgado, who has declined to rule out a run for governor, are relatively unknown to New York state voters. 

Among Democratic voters, 26% have a favorable opinion of Delgado, while 10% have an unfavorable opinion and 64% don’t know about him to have an opinion. As for Torres, 27% of Democrats have a favorable opinion of him, while 14% have an unfavorable opinion and 59% don’t know enough about him. 

But there is one demographic that knows him comparatively well and likes him: Jewish voters. Likely owing to Torres’ staunch support for Israel and frequent criticism of pro-Palestinian protesters, the poll found that 39% of Jewish voters have a favorable opinion of him, while 12% have an unfavorable opinion and 49% have no opinion yet.

The rumored Republican candidates for governor – Rep. Mike Lawler and Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman – also lack statewide name recognition.

According to the poll, just 18% of Republican voters have a favorable opinion of Lawler, while 14% have an unfavorable opinion and 68% don’t know enough about him. Blakeman’s favorability is even worse: 15% of Republicans have a favorable opinion of him, while 16% have an unfavorable opinion and 69% have no opinion yet. 

Unsurprisingly, Lawler would win a hypothetical Republican gubernatorial primary held today, with 25% of the vote to Blakeman’s 13% – though most Republicans (60%) said they were undecided.

This is the first time that Siena has polled a hypothetical 2026 gubernatorial primary. Previous only asked whether voters would support Hochul or “someone else.” The governor’s overall favorability remains underwater, with 40% of New York voters having a favorable opinion of her and 50% having an unfavorable opinion. Her job approval ratings are slightly better: 46% of New York voters approve of the job she’s doing, while 48% disapprove.

Voters give Hochul positive marks when it comes to ensuring New Yorkers have access to affordable health care (55% approve, 35% disapprove) and protecting New Yorkers’ constitutional rights (58% approve, 35% disapprove) but they’re split when it comes to how she’s addressed the corruption allegations against New York City Mayor Eric Adams (40% approve, 44% disapprove) and they are very critical of her handling of the ongoing corrections officer strike (33% approve, 42% disapprove).

And then there’s congestion pricing. The much-maligned tolling scheme has never garnered support from a majority of New York voters. Last April, a Siena poll found that 63% of New York voters – including about two-thirds of New York City voters – opposed congestion pricing. When Hochul abruptly stopped the program from going into effect in June, a Siena poll found that 45% of voters agreed with the governor’s decision to pause the program and just 23% opposed it. A Siena poll in September found that 59% of voters wanted to see the program scrapped entirely, and one in December found that 51% of voters – including 56% of New York City voters – opposed the plan.

Congestion pricing has now been in effect for about two months, and the latest Siena poll found that a slight plurality of New York voters still oppose the program, with 40% saying it should be eliminated, 33% saying it should remain and 16% falling somewhere in the middle. But in New York City, the program is relatively popular: 42% of city voters said it should continue, while just 35% said it should be eliminated.

Looking ahead to 2026, only 34% of New York voters said they planned to vote for Hochul’s reelection, while 56% said they would prefer to vote for “someone else.” Looking even further ahead, 60% of New York voters think it is likely that the United States will still be a democratic republic in five years, while 26% of voters think that is unlikely.