Long Island is Trump Country, but some Democrats can still win

Long Island’s 2024 election results were a mixed bag for the Democrats, as the party managed to flip a key House seat blue, while losing Nassau County in a presidential race for the first time in decades and watching Suffolk County shift even further to the right.

In the 2022 midterms, Long Island experienced the heralded red wave that didn’t materialize elsewhere in the country, with Republicans picking up two House seats in Nassau County. Both of those are now blue again. 

Rep. Tom Suozzi, who handily won a February special election to replace ousted former congressman George Santos in the 3rd Congressional District, was reelected Tuesday, but by smaller margins than a few months ago. Suozzi beat challenger Michael LiPetri, 51.3% to 48.7% – a narrower win than his defeat of Republican Mazi Pilip in the special election.

In the neighboring 4th Congressional District, Democrat Laura Gillen’s apparent win over Republican Rep. Anthony D’Esposito was another bright spot for Democrats on a tough night for the party. As of Wednesday evening, she led D’Esposito by about 6,000 votes. D’Esposito, a former New York City police officer who was plagued by recent scandals alleging nepotism and campaign finance irregularities, had not conceded the race by Wednesday evening, though Gillen declared victory early Wednesday morning. This was the second time the two faced off, with Gillen losing to D’Esposito in 2022.

“I am so humbled and grateful to have the privilege of serving the people of NY04. I am excited to get to work for all the residents of this wonderful district,” Gillen said in a statement.

But even as Nassau delivered two seats to Democrats, Nassau and Suffolk voters shifted hard toward Trump. The former president won Nassau County by 5 points – a major shift to the right for a county that has supported the Democratic nominee for president since 1992. He won Suffolk County by 11 points, a major jump from 2020 when President Joe Biden lost the county by just 232 votes. In 2016, Trump won Suffolk county by 8 points – which at the time was a shock since the county had voted for Obama in the previous two elections.

Long Island’s rightward move this election was part of a larger shift for Republicans in the state: Trump’s 2024 performance was the best by a Republican presidential candidate in New York since 1992. That mirrored national trends, as Trump improved on his 2020 margins in 90% of American counties that had reported results by Wednesday morning.

Suffolk Republicans celebrated Trump’s victory on Tuesday night at an election party in Patchogue, complete with a big sign that read “Suffolk is Trump Country.”

“Across the nation, there’s a wave going, and you know where that wave started? Right here in Suffolk County,” Suffolk County Republican Chairman Jesse Garcia told a large crowd of supporters.

While Democrats won House races in Nassau County, Republicans easily bested them in Suffolk. In the 1st Congressional District, Republican Rep. Nick LaLota defeated Democrat John Avlon, a first-time candidate and former CNN personality, by 11 points. Just to the west, Republican Rep. Andrew Garbarino won reelection in the 2nd Congressional District over Democratic challenger Rob Lubin, 58% to 41%.

“Suffolk is deep red now,” a Suffolk Republican strategist who asked to remain anonymous told City & State. “Donald Trump won by over 80,000 votes, both congressmen easily defeated their opponents by over 10 points, and we even came within 300 votes of winning the Democratic stronghold of AD11.”

Assembly District 11 is located in historically strongly Democratic parts of the Town of Babylon. It was most recently represented by Democratic Assembly Member Kimberly Jean Pierre, who resigned earlier this year. On Tuesday, Democrat Kwani O’Pharrow narrowly beat Republican Joseph Cardinale to win the seat.

The GOP operative said that even Mike Sapraicone, the Republican candidate who unsuccessfully challenged Democratic U.S. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, had performed relatively well, losing by just 17 points despite his lack of statewide name recognition – which he credited to the state’s general shift to the right.

“Look what Zeldin and Trump did for New York,” he said.