Lawler defeats Jones in NY-17 to win reelection

Rep. Mike Lawler held on to the 17th Congressional District on Tuesday, decisively beating Mondaire Jones. With 60% of precincts reporting, Lawler had 53.34% of the vote compared to Jones’ 41.4%. The Pearl River Republican will return to Congress with his support in the district solidified and his eyes possibly looking toward higher office. Meanwhile, Jones's political future within the Democratic party looks murky after he burned several bridges in his attempt to return to D.C. 

Lawler racked up early leads in places like Putnam and Dutchess Counties, and as the night went on, his advantage extended to Westchester and Rockland Counties, eventually proving insurmountable for Jones. Lawler was confident addressing the New City crowd that assembled for his election night party, preaching unity beyond demographics or ideology and also sharing his to-do list for his second term. 

“We have an affordability crisis. We have a crisis at our southern border. We have international crises around the globe, and here in New York, we have seen disastrous consequences from one-party rule, the cashless bail law that will go down as the single stupidest piece of legislation that was ever enacted into law anywhere in the United States of America,” Lawler said. “Congestion pricing, we lead the nation in outmigration – not because of the weather, it was 71 degrees – but because people cannot afford to live in this state.”

The 2024 election cycle saw an absence of normality for voters in the Lower Hudson Valley district, which includes Rockland, Putnam and parts of Dutchess and Westchester Counties. Revelations that Jones was not kicked out of the district by former Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chair Sean Patrick Maloney but instead chose to run in Manhattan in 2022, shocked some voters. 

And progressives turned their back on Jones after he endorsed Westchester County Executive George Latimer in the 16th Congressional District Democratic primary against Rep. Jamaal Bowman – a move that led the Congressional Progressive Caucus to rescind its endorsement of Jones and the New York Working Families Party to pull ground and financial support for his campaign. Enter Lawler, who helped former registered Republican Anthony Frascone hijack the WFP line, with members of Lawler’s staff registering conservative voters under the progressive third party and his campaign sending out mailers suggesting (falsely) that WFP no longer endorsed Jones. The confusion led to Frascone winning the WFP primary in June and going on to receive over 5,000 votes in the general election. 

Things only got worse for Jones after he indirectly – and possibly inadvertently – referred to Gov. Kathy Hochul, who organized a coordinated campaign with the intent of flipping House seats, as a “little bitch.” Meanwhile, Lawler faced his own controversy when The New York Times reported that he had once worn blackface as part of a Halloween costume in college. 

The tumultuous series of events ended up working in Lawler’s favor as voters appreciated his comparably smoother campaign and bipartisan image, while Jones was unable to shake his progressive label even as he alienated his progressive allies. Jones’ attempts to downplay his previous progressive positions, particularly his support for defunding the police, and portray Lawler as an extreme MAGA Republican were unsuccessful.

Ultimately the victory came down to Lawler’s political prowess. Between his shrwed relationship building with the Orthodox Jewish community, which in 2022 had backed his Democratic opponent, his bipartisan positioning and some electoral skullduggery, he created an uphill battle for any Democratic candidate, let alone one with as many issues as Jones.

Ultimately, Lawler might just be better at politics than Jones. A former consultant and the Republican who dethroned the man in charge of running Democratic campaigns across the country, he understood the task. His own threshold for right-wing politics isn’t obvious, save for a few unfortunate leaks, but he has fashioned himself into a palatable choice for voters who may not adore former President Donald Trump but have lost trust in Democrats.

Some now expect Lawler to run for governor in 2026. 

“I wouldn't be surprised,” Democratic political consultant Jack O’Donnell said. “My understanding is he's told some people that, and he's very interested in that, and I think part of the focus of the state party and the Hochul administration was to cut off that path for him, in addition to just trying to win House seats.”

Lawler hinted at bigger plans for his political career.

“That's something down the road that we were looking at,” Lawler said. “Tonight, right now, I'm focused on the win we had, the big win we had, and obviously awaiting the results, both of Congress and the White House.”