New York Gubernatorial Debate 2014: Five Takeaways

Wednesday night’s debate between the four candidates appearing on the ballot for governor of New York State left much to be desired as far as giving voters a nuanced understanding of the candidates' positions and separating fact from fantasy. The hour-long format divided into equal time for all four candidates meant that each of them had relatively little time to answer questions (Gov. Andrew Cuomo only spoke for 11:48 in total) and minimized the opportunities for drama, despite the vigorous efforts of the underdogs, particularly Westchester County Executive Rob Astorino and Green Party nominee Howie Hawkins, to use their sole opportunity to confront the governor directly on television to gain significant ground on the heavily favored incumbent, who is currently leading by more than 20 points according to the latest Siena poll of the race, with a mere 13 days to go before the election. 

Here are five takeaways from the debate, which took place at WNED and WBFO studios in Buffalo.

1. Gov. Cuomo is poised to win re-election.

Frontrunners tend not to like debates because there is generally no upside for them. They are the political equivalent of walking through a minefield: success is not blowing up—not because there are the largest number of voters tuned in of any part of the campaign, but because any misstep will be reported and replayed ad nauseum until Election Day. Thursday night Cuomo was able to tiptoe his way through the minefield. As the Democratic nominee in a heavily Democratic state with a huge edge in the polls and a much bigger war chest than Astorino, his nearest competitor, it's pretty clear now that Cuomo has made his way over this last major hurdle that only a catastrophe on the level of a criminal indictment or an epic gaffe could derail his reelection bid.

2. Cuomo is not as bad a debater as the experts say.

The general sentiment among politicos and reporters is that Cuomo isn’t comfortable in debates and doesn’t like doing them, which is why he agreed to do only one televised debate and insisted on the third party candidates participating to diffuse his Republican opponent's attacks against him, just like he did in the 2010 race. Maybe that is true, but tonight he seemed calm, comfortable and throughly prepared for the litany of attacks Astorino launched at him. Rather than playing defense, the governor was aggressive, steering the conversation to the racial discrimination suit brought by the Department of Housing and Urban Development against Astorino over a zoning battle in Westchester, a topic that ended up dominating the second half hour of the debate when Astorino, sucking up the time Astorino could have used to hammer away at Cuomo's vulnerabilities, like the ongoing federal probe of the disbanding of the Moreland Commission.

3. Moreland was a blow, but not a knockout.

The Cuomo campaign was certainly holding its breath when the topic of ethics and the Moreland Commission came up. Fortunately for the governor, the stage layout helped him. He deflected the criticism by thanking Juan Gonzalez of the Daily News for the question and then suggesting that he was happy to clear up the "misinformation" surrounding the commission. In his response, he praised Republican Onondaga County District Attorney William Fitzpatrick, placed the decisions made by the commission at Fitzpatrick's feet, and then pivoted to play up the passage of the ethics reform bill agreed to in April that allows DAs greater authority to pursue corruption cases.

Instead of Astorino being able to pounce on the governor's response right away, the Republican candidate had to wait for responses from Green Party nominee Howie Hawkins and the Libertarian Party's Mike McDermott, neither of whom directly engaged the ethics issues surrounding Cuomo’s handling of the commission. It was only a two-minute reprieve, but that span was long enough to dull Astorino's momentum, who was chomping at the bit. When he finally got a chance to chime in Astorino executed a clearly practiced attack charging that Cuomo is “swimming in a cesspool of corruption” and going so far as to say that the governor “very well may be indicted” after the election. Astorino then confronted Cuomo directly: “Would you like to tell the people of New York whether you’ve been subpoenaed, or if your staff has been subpoenaed?

Once again, Cuomo was helped by the format. He quickly dismissed Astorino's accusations as false, and then shifted to an attack on Astorino. When the Republican finally got to speak again, he reiterated his jab at Cuomo about the subpoenas, but Cuomo never answered the question and the debate moved on. The exchange was definitely the low light of the debate for Cuomo, but it ended up only being about 7 minutes of the overall conversation, and Astorino was not able to convert the topic into the knockout he needed it to be.

4. It's the economy, stupid.

Perhaps the fundamental reasons Astorino is trailing Cuomo in the polls is because he cannot convince voters that Cuomo is doing a bad job on the economy, and he would do better steering it than the incumbent. In the debate Astorino tried to blast Cuomo, alleging the governor has raised taxes, but Cuomo fired back, countering, “Rhetoric is fine. Facts are better.” Cuomo then skewered Astorino for Westchester County having the highest taxes in the nation. Astorino disputed the substance of that charge, but the back and forth devolved into murkiness with neither candidate clearly coming out on top in the argument—which ultimately was a win for Cuomo.

Astorino tried to score some points on the economy by full-throatedly backing hydrofracking, pointing to national and state Democrats who agree with this approach, and charging that Cuomo’s inaction on the issue is preventing job creation because he is “politically paralyzed". Cuomo pushed back by basically saying that hydrofracking was too complicated and should be left to scientists to assess. The governor did make some news when he announced that the long-awaited state Department of Health report on fracking is due by the end of this year.  

5. More Candidates: More Fun, Less Conflict.

McDermott called for an investment in industrial hemp (“Google it”, he urged voters). He also told us he doesn’t take the Tappan Zee Bridge, instead using the Palisades Parkway so he can take advantage of New Jersey’s cheaper gas. (I am guilty of this as well).

Hawkins suggested the two-party system should be replaced with proportional representation based on a vote for party platforms, the system the U.K. and Germany use.

In terms of entertainment value, the debate wasn't as outlandish as the one four years ago when the candidates on stage included the "Manhattan Madam", the gripping Jimmy McMillan of Rent is Too Damn High fame, and Carl Paladino's disappearance to use the restroom, but McDermott in particular did break up the tension, which is just why Cuomo wanted him up there.