Commentary: You can’t blame Hochul for Democrats’ failures this time

In a night of disaster and devastation for Democrats across America, Gov. Kathy Hochul did just fine. 

Prop 1, which codified abortion rights in the state constitution and drew immense backlash from conservatives over its language concerning gender identity and national origin, passed statewide. And her investments in the state Democratic Party, so desiccated for so long, also seemed to pay off. The state campaign that she coordinated with House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and U.S. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand appeared to successfully aid many down-ballot House candidates in key swing districts. 

At least three Republican-held seats will be flipped: State Sen. John Mannion defeated Rep. Brandon Williams in the Syracuse area, Josh Riley knocked off Rep. Marc Molinaro in the Hudson Valley and Laura Gillen appears to have narrowly beaten Rep. Anthony D’Esposito in Nassau County. In addition, Democratic Rep. Pat Ryan easily held his Hudson Valley seat, while Rep. Tom Suozzi – Hochul’s old Democratic rival – survived on the North Shore of Long Island. The governor probably doesn’t mind that one of her punchier critics, Democratic former Rep. Mondaire Jones, was easily beaten by Republican Rep. Mike Lawler. (There’s a double-edged sword here, though, since Lawler might be a candidate for governor in 2026.)

The night’s results were an inverse of what happened in 2022. That year, Democrats romped to victory across America, growing their U.S. Senate majority and just barely losing the House. The red wave, forecasted to hit everywhere, merely struck New York, turning all the Long Island House seats Republican and sending Molinaro to Congress north of the city. Those Republican wins in New York helped cost Democrats control of Congress, and former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi blamed Hochul, who was running for governor, directly for their loss.

This year, Democrats were beaten so badly that they will not win the majority back even with the New York pickups. But Hochul can take satisfaction that New York, against the odds, did its part. The state’s House Democratic delegation has grown. 

This growth comes as Republicans otherwise continue to make tangible inroads in New York. Harris won a lower share of the vote statewide than Joe Biden did in 2020, and she was the worst performing Democratic presidential candidate in New York City since the 1980s.

Asians and Latino voters, trending rightward since 2020, continued gravitating closer to the Republican camp. Trump won more votes in the Spanish-speaking neighborhoods of the Bronx and Queens than he did four years ago. Asian voters proved they’re just as happy to vote for Trump as any local Republicans. These headwinds doomed state Sen. Iwen Chu, a Democratic incumbent in a heavily Chinese portion of southern Brooklyn. A district drawn for Democrats will now send a Republican, Steven Chan, to Albany. Long Island, meanwhile, remains Trump country. He carried Nassau and Suffolk counties.

Still, Democrats retained their strong majorities in the Assembly and State Senate. The district maps are now much more favorable to them than they were in the last decade, and the party also fundraises effectively and runs strong candidates. Unlike her disgraced predecessor, former Gov. Andrew Cuomo, Hochul has engaged much more in party-building efforts. Cuomo dreaded the day Democrats took back the state Senate, but Hochul has no problem working with Democratic state Senate Majority Leader Andrea Stewart-Cousins indefinitely. 

What does this mean for the governor in two years, when she inevitably seeks a second term? Republicans will look at Tuesday night and see a beatable incumbent. Former Rep. Lee Zeldin, a proud Trump supporter, came within 6 points of defeating Hochul in 2022. He blamed Hochul for high crime, a migrant influx and failing to grapple with inflation. He wasn’t a terribly charismatic presence on the campaign trail, but he was disciplined. 

With the growing number of working- and middle-class Republicans in the state, the GOP can be optimistic about pulling off the upset. Hochul’s approval ratings are not very high. She has failed to captivate the imagination of the electorate, and her tenure isn’t associated with any distinctive policy achievements. 

Much of what happens to Hochul will depend on the political environment around her. In 2022, crime concerns fueled a backlash to Democrats across the state. Hochul campaigned listlessly, giving Zeldin openings he nearly capitalized on. The national environment proved fairly favorable to Democrats, but the local trends were unsettling for the party. 

The silver lining for Hochul is history. Trump, as the 47th president, will preside over the country for the 2026 midterms. The last time he was president, a midterm blue wave delivered Democrats the House and gave them large margins statewide. Cuomo won a huge victory as he sought a third term. Anti-Trump sentiment fueled this vote. 

It’s plausible these conditions will be repeated in the 2026 midterms. Trump is a polarizing president and his approval rating is unlikely to tick up much. Even with a popular vote victory, he is despised by almost half the country, and Democrats in New York could be motivated to vote against him. Hochul would benefit from that turnout. She could win a double-digit victory over a Republican challenger. 

Of course, the future is unpredictable. The U.S Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision altered the dynamic of the 2022 midterms and helped Democrats win races they otherwise wouldn’t have won. Perhaps Trump will be the beneficiary of some unforeseen dynamic. In such a scenario, perhaps Hochul will be doomed. 

For now, though, she can breathe easy. Pelosi can’t blame her for failing the party again. She’s the first Democratic governor in many decades, if not ever, to seriously attempt to build up the state party’s infrastructure. New York lags many other states in this department, and Hochul is helping the party play catchup. Emboldened now, she’ll continue to raise money for the party infrastructure, especially with both her own reelection and another crucial midterm cycle on the horizon.

It will be incumbent on her to have a compelling message when she runs, a real rationale for her candidacy. Her last bid was deeply underwhelming. Few, now, are excited for her. How does she generate new interest in her governorship? How does she counteract the rising GOP? She’ll have two years to prepare and mull this over. She’ll be on her own; the national Democrats have so many other problems to deal with now. Sink or swim, the state Democratic Party will be in Hochul’s hands. That might be how she prefers it.