Stefanik dominates Lawler and Blakeman in new poll

A new poll has Republican Rep. Elise Stefanik leading the field by 37 points in a GOP primary for governor and trailing Gov. Kathy Hochul by just six points in a general election. Though Stefanik has not announced a run for governor, the poll suggests that she – rather than Rep. Mike Lawler or Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman – could be Republicans’ best chance to reclaim the statehouse. 

It’s still extremely early, but Stefanik’s performance in GrayHouse’s poll of 826 voters has her bullish on her chances in a primary. According to the poll, 44% of GOP primary voters favored her, compared to 7% who favored Lawler and 5% who favored Blakeman. Though she hasn’t given anything close to an announcement, it’s clear the possibility is on her mind.

“This independent poll shows what everyone knows; there is no question that the single most popular Republican in NY after President Trump is Elise Stefanik,” said Alex DeGrasse, an advisor to Stefanik. “If she decides to run, it’s lights out in the primary and very competitive in the general election, where she can certainly defeat Kathy Hochul.”

Hochul’s performance is in line with her usual approval numbers, as 61% of voters polled – including 34% of Democrats – said it’s "time for someone new."

Despite Stefanik’s strong showing in the poll, Lawler’s campaign maintains that he’s the best placed to court middle-of-the-road voters and even Democrats. Lawler styles himself as a moderate lawmaker and his wins in a district that tilts blue contrasts with Stefanik and Blakeman, whose public images appeal to more conservative voters. Blakeman did not respond to requests for comment. 

“This poll shows all three potential GOP candidates in strong position against a historically weak Kathy Hochul. But, as 1 of only 3 Republicans in the entire country to win a congressional district also carried by VP Harris last year, Congressman Mike Lawler is the only one with a unique and proven track record of attracting independents and Democrats in a general election,” Lawler campaign spokesperson Chris Russell said in a statement. “He’ll do the same if he chooses to run for Governor – a decision Mike will make sometime in June or July.”  

With summer on the horizon, and the rush for fundraising expected to ramp up afterwards, it’ll soon become clearer who is best positioned to win the hearts of New York’s Republican voters and challenge Hochul for the governor’s mansion. Right now, though, Stefanik looks like she might have the inside track. 

The poll was paid for by GrayHouse and had a 4% margin of error for general election polling and a 5% margin of error for GOP primary polling.