Hochul targets Stefanik’s seat

Democrats still appear to be riding high on President Donald Trump’s decision to pull Rep. Elise Stefanik’s nomination to be United Nations ambassador, with Gov. Kathy Hochul telling party officials that she views Stefanik’s North Country seat as a prime pickup opportunity as Stefanik reportedly considers running for Hochul’s position.

Hochul kicked off a closed-door virtual state Democratic Committee meeting Tuesday evening by celebrating Democrats’ successes in last year’s New York congressional races and looking towards the future. “I think we can win, not just the seats we won last year, hold on to all those, but also we're going to have some pickups,” Hochul said. There are a couple of seats that Democrats targeted in the Hudson Valley and on Long Island last year where they came up short that would make sense as renewed targets. Rep. Mike Lawler, who is openly considering a run for governor against Hochul, still represents a swing district that on paper should be favorable to Democrats. And headway made with victories in nearby districts could embolden Democrats to take on Rep. Nick Lalota again. 

But Hochul mentioned neither of those candidates, nor Staten Island’s Rep. Nicole Malliotakis, another perennial target for Democrats. Instead, she looked north. “If you're living in Elise Stefanik’s district and you're a Republican farmer where someone in a small community is not getting the tourism they used to get from Canada – tourism is such an important part of this state – we're going to win a seat up there,” the governor said. “I know we are, because people, Republicans, have had it with their own party ruining their lives.”

A spokesperson for Hochul’s campaign told City & State that the governor sees all Republican-held congressional seats, including Stefanik’s, as potential pick-up opportunities. “The Governor has made it clear that every Republican seat in the state is in play for 2026,” Jen Goodman said. “New York House Republicans are failing their constituents by raising costs for working families, gutting health care, and putting Social Security on the chopping block. Every single one of them is vulnerable because of their reckless decisions in Washington, and voters across New York will hold them accountable in 2026.”

Stefanik has represented the 21st Congressional District since 2015, handily winning reelection year after year. Although Democrats have represented the district in the past – Stefanik’s own predecessor was a Democrat – the seat has become increasingly Republican to the point that while she remains in the seat, it has not been viewed as competitive. Stefanik herself has also increased her profile and influence since first getting elected, serving as the fourth-most powerful House Republican between 2021 and 2025 as chair of the House Republican Conference. Last year, her national profile got even bigger thanks to her role in committee hearings on antisemitism on college campuses, where she grilled Ivy League presidents. She was also a prominent Trump surrogate.

After winning the election, Trump nominated Stefanik to become the next U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, but doing so would have left her seat empty for a short period of time and diminished Republicans’ narrow majority in the House. Matters became further complicated as Democrats in Albany quietly considered legislation that would have granted the governor more time before calling a special election to replace Stefanik, thus leaving the seat open for longer. 

A multi-candidate race was also becoming increasingly likely, with Republicans and the state Conservative Party likely to run different people and an expected independent campaign from business owner Anthony Constantino splitting the right-wing vote. Democrats, on the other hand, had coalesced around farmer Blake Gendebien, who could have benefited from the crowded race. Trump ultimately pulled Stefanik from consideration last month, blowing up the special election political calculus. Now, NBC News reports that Stefanik is considering running for governor next year, which would throw the campaign for her seat into chaos once again.

After Hochul spoke, state Democratic Party Chair Jay Jacobs praised upstate county leaders for choosing “a great candidate” – though he did not mention Gendebien by name. “They actually scared Donald Trump off from appointing Elise Stefanik to the position at the United Nations,” Jacobs said. “So the next up will be a general election, of course. And as I said, great candidate, great effort, and that's really the way our team needs to work together.” 

Stefanik’s team brushed off both Hochul’s and Jacobs’ comments. “Kathy Hochul is the least popular elected official in the North Country by a long shot, so her statements are totally dismissed by North Country voters,” said Alex DeGrasse, a senior adviser to Stefanik. “This happens every cycle like clockwork, and every cycle, Elise Stefanik mops the floor of every Democrat they’ve ever run against her, often by the largest margin in the Northeast, and Elise consistently put up more votes than any candidate in the history of the North Country.”

Stefanik didn’t rule out the potential of running for governor while speaking with the Times Union last week. She has long been considered a strong choice if she ever chose that route, but the prospect has never been seriously considered. Stefanik spoke last night at the annual state GOP gala in Manhattan, where Politico New York reported that the 2026 governor’s race was a hot topic of conversation as rumors about Stefanik’s political future begin to pick up.

Gendebien spokesperson Georgia Greenleaf welcomed the comments from the state’s leading Democrats, while taking aim at Stefanik. “After Trump was spooked into canceling the NY-21 special, it looks like Democrats and Republicans are finally in agreement about something: Blake Gendebien is the person to finally deliver real representation for the North Country while Stefanik seems too busy launching her bid for Governor,” Greenleaf said.