Eric Adams’ survival strategy

Mayor Eric Adams bounded into the 2025 mayoral race this week, clear of some of the biggest obstacles that have blocked his hopes at securing a second term. 

President Donald Trump’s Justice Department succeeded in having the corruption charges against Adams dropped, as they seek his cooperation on immigration enforcement. Reviving a swagger not seen in months, a light-on-his-feet Adams celebrated the ruling in an appearance at Gracie Mansion on Wednesday, confidently telling reporters, “I’m running for reelection – and you know what, I’m gonna win.”

A day later, he officially opted out of the Democratic primary, removing himself from a field in which he's placed, at best, third in recent polls.

Appearing at his first mayoral forum on Thursday, the incumbent mayor entered campaign mode in earnest, trumpeting his decision to run as an independent – “I didn’t leave the (Democratic) party, the party left me” – and promising to build more housing, to prioritize public safety, and “to fight any White House that is not going to benefit our city.”

Buoyed by his recent legal victory, the mayor received a friendly welcome from attendees at the National Action Network forum. A particularly loud roar of applause followed after Adams quipped that he doesn’t even know why he’s still having to ask to be reelected. “I should just be reelected,” he said.

Adams’ run as an independent buys him much needed time to tackle record-low approval ratings and distance himself from his indictment. Adams’ campaign will try to drive home the message that Adams has led the city out of the COVID-19 pandemic. To do so, they’ll deploy a more active candidate in the incumbent mayor than the city has seen yet. “When the message of the success of the Adams administration is brought to everyday New Yorkers, when the mayor starts campaigning with the energy level that he is accustomed to and capable of, we believe New Yorkers will recognize that, see that New York is in a much better place, and are going to want more of that,” said Adams’ former chief of staff Frank Carone, who has been fielding campaign-related inquiries. “And we’ll bring him back for a second term.”

But Adams still faces long odds. Independent candidates for mayor, whether the incumbent or not, face a challenging path to election in a city in which 3 million registered Democrats outnumber Republicans nearly 6 to 1, and outnumber unaffiliated voters 3 to 1. (That doesn’t count the roughly 19,000 voters each registered to both the Working Families Party and the Conservative Party.) While Adams says that he’s not changing his party registration, his recent alignment with Trump and statements that the Democratic Party has strayed too far left for him could appeal to voters who have also moved away from the Democratic Party in recent years, including in Black and Latino communities. Conservative voters who see a better shot at electing Adams than Republican Curtis Sliwa could also be drawn to the mayor. But that’s still an unproven path. “What he would have to do is cobble together the kind of coalition for a Black candidate that we’ve never seen before,” said Basil Smikle, former executive director of the state Democratic Party. 

There’s some precedent for a New York City mayor to change parties for reelection. Former New York City Mayor John Lindsay went from a Republican to an independent in 1969 and won. Former Mayor Michael Bloomberg also successfully ran on an independent party line in 2009 for a third term, although unlike Adams, he also still ran on the Republican line – and he was able to pour tens of millions of his own money into the race. 

“Mike Bloomberg is typically seen as the exception to the rule when it comes to independent runs, which is they don’t win and rarely affect the outcome of a race,” said a Democratic consultant not affiliated with any campaign. “If Eric Adams is going to try and follow that path – but without the $100 million Bloomberg spent – he’s going to have to amass a united block of moderate voters of color from the outer boroughs lifting him above a highly fractured electorate.”

Adams could wind up facing a handful of major opponents in a general election. If Cuomo wins the Democratic nomination, as early polling currently has him in position to do, the Working Families Party could nominate one of the four more progressive candidates who they’ve endorsed in the Democratic primary. That would set up an unusually active general election with Democrat Andrew Cuomo, Republican Curtis Sliwa, independent Eric Adams and a fourth WFP candidate running. Independent candidate Jim Walden will also be vying for up-for-grabs voters.

Adams’ recently anemic fundraising has been another challenge, particularly if the city’s Campaign Finance Board continues to deny him matching funds. Though his team hasn’t publicly entertained the idea, Smikle theorized that the mayor’s alignment with Trump could stimulate fundraising or even independent spending among the conservative and MAGA set.

Another missing piece in Adams’ strategy thus far? Enthusiastic allies willing to go to bat for him. Cuomo has gobbled up endorsements in Brooklyn and southeast Queens, where Adams drew his strongest support in 2021. The most powerful labor unions have yet to make a decision on endorsements yet, but early reporting indicates that they too are largely looking beyond Adams. Several key endorsements – including from Rep. Adriano Espaillat and the New York Post – remain up for grabs. As for the Rev. Al Sharpton, who monitored Thursday’s debate, it’s unlikely Adams will again garner his support. While the longtime civil rights activist has been a key ally for the mayor – endorsing him in 2021 – he’s expressed serious reservations about backing him again in 2025 following the Justice Department’s push to dismiss his case. 

Adams’ path moving forward in the race is also blatantly one that’s aimed at survival. “I’m a Democrat, I’m running as an independent because we’d have thought this case would have been over a long time ago. The (primary) election is in June,” Adams said Thursday, referencing the dismissal of his legal troubles. “I wanted to run in the Democratic Party, but I had to be realistic.”