Possible GOP cuts to Medicaid put Lawler in awkward position

Republican proposals to slash funding to Medicaid and other federal programs are putting Republican Rep. Mike Lawler in an impossible position as his rumoured gubernatorial campaign waits on the horizon. If Lawler supports the cuts, it could hurt his reputation as a moderate with crossover appeal who’s willing to stand up to MAGA. But if Lawler doesn’t display the allegiance to President Donald Trump that has served other New York Republicans well, he could hand a potential primary opponent a leg up.

The House budget resolution that Lawler and 216 other members of Congress voted for in February directed the House Energy and Commerce Committee to cut $880 billion in spending, which will almost certainly require significant cuts to Medicaid and Medicare, as part of a long-term plan to cut $2 trillion in federal spending over the next decade. 

Naturally, Democrats have attacked Lawler and his colleagues in the GOP for the feared slashes to federal funding that affect essential services for many. In his district, 26% of residents are enrolled in Medicaid. 

“We just have to speak out about it, scream about it, rise it up so that either we can convince Trump to change his mind, convince the seven Republicans to change their mind and stop standing with Trump (or) convince Republican senators to stop standing by Trump,” U.S. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand told reporters in Albany on Friday. “And the more and more harm that Trump creates, the more and more people are going to be outraged and demand answers and demand changes.”

In his district, activists have interrupted business luncheons and held protests against Lawler, arguing that he has not pushed back strongly enough against Republican leadership. Lawler has dismissed the protests and accused some of the protesters of using antisemitic imagery.

In his public statements, Lawler has tried to find a middle ground – focusing on the need to rein in government spending, but not at the expense of his constituents.

“The Congressman’s approach to the federal budget is to tell the truth. With $36 trillion in debt, it is not sustainable for government to continue spending trillions more than it takes in. So, if you’re an illegal immigrant or someone scamming the system you should be cut off,” Lawler spokesperson Ciro Riccardi said in a statement. “At the same time, Congressman Lawler opposes any cuts to Social Security and Medicare, and will ensure Medicaid benefits are protected for those who need and rely on this critical program, especially our seniors and those who are intellectually, developmentally, or physically disabled. Congressman Lawler will continue to fight back against any effort to cut these critical services.”

In theory, Lawler could shut down negative rhetoric and take some of the sting out of local protests if he sharply and publicly rebuked the concept of eliminating services. Voters have seen a little bit of what that looks like, like when he slammed a federal plan to close a Social Security office in White Plains. But loudly opposing the cuts could make him appear disloyal to Trump and hurt his chances in next year’s Republican gubernatorial primary.  

Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman is also rumored to be eyeing the 2026 gubernatorial race and has been acting accordingly. And Blakeman's approach to the culture war –including banning transgender student athletes from using public facilities – has earned him the respect of the president, which could be parlayed into an endorsement if Lawler ever finds himself on Trump’s side. However, Lawler maintains that he views the current predicament as one of eliminating bloat rather than disenfranchising his constituents, who reelected him decisively last fall. 

Trump's forays into statewide campaign endorsements have often simplified the calculus for Republican Party members. His support of Mike Sapraicone drained the life from many of the other candidates in last year's Senate primary. When he waited to endorse former Rep. and current EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin until after the 2022 Republican gubernatorial primary, it delayed the marshalling of support from party members across the state. If he came out for Blakeman early, it could take the wind out of Lawler’s sails if he goes through with a statewide campaign.

For now, Lawler seems to be keeping his head down.

Peter Guinta, chair of the state Young Republicans, said that Lawler is no pushover, but he hasn’t made a point of criticizing the current presidential administration or tried to “poke the bear.” 

“Typically, people in moderate districts have a little bit of leeway to maybe criticize, whereas others wouldn't. Personally, I haven't seen Lawler do too much criticism of the current administration,” Guinta told City & State. “And I don't mean that to sound like, Oh, he's a stooge for Trump. I think that Trump 2.0 has resonated a lot better with middle-class families and working families, which is a lot of what Lawler's district is.”

He added that if Lawler and the rest of the delegation can prevent the worst from happening, it would be a very public show of their influence, and in Lawler’s case, ability to advocate for statewide issues.

“It boils down to how much influence do they have in Washington,” he said. “This will be the test of that.”