Anticipated special election goes bust as Elise Stefanik stays in Congress

Following months of intrigue and speculation about the future of the 21st Congressional District, the White House is now preparing to pull Rep. Elise Stefanik’s nomination for U.N. ambassador as Republicans try to corral their slim majority in Congress. 

In a post on Truth Social, President Donald Trump said Stefanik will remain in her seat and likely be offered a different role later in the administration. The news that Stefanik’s nomination would be pulled was first reported by CBS News.

As recently as Thursday morning, the expectation was that her seat would be contested by a hodgepodge of candidates in the North Country once she resigned from Congress following a perfunctory confirmation hearing on April 2. For a number of would-be Republican candidates – a group that includes Assembly Member Chris Tague, state Sen. Dan Stec, MAGA firebrand Anthony Constantino and conservative activist Liz Joy – it looks like they geared up for a race that isn’t going to happen. Blake Gendebien, the Democratic pick to replace Stefanik, still plans to run for the seat when Stefanik is up for reelection next year.

House Republicans are understandably skittish about weakening their majority in the House at a time when they need to hash out the federal budget and execute on Trump’s agenda. Her seat remaining vacant as a special election played out, compounded by the looming threat of state legislation that would extend the wait for voters, was enough to give Republicans pause. Tricky special elections in Florida aren’t helping matters, and the race itself wasn’t a sure thing to begin with.

Republicans were expected to select either Tague, Stec or Joy to be their nominee, but Constantino had floated the idea of running as an independent if his plan to lobby North Country party bosses failed. And Stec received the Conservative Party’s nomination, which meant he could still appear on the ballot even if the GOP ultimately went with Tague or Joy. Gendebien was always going to be a long shot in a seat that hasn’t sent a Democrat to Congress since the Obama administration, but he may have had a chance if Republican votes were split.

So far, some candidates have acknowledged that the past few months of angling for the seat were all for naught. Others are still struggling to accept that reality.

Constantino wrote on X that early reports of her nomination being pulled were a hoax and later wrote, “I strongly support Elise Stefanik's nomination for UN Ambassador and, if the NY GOP nominates me for the Special Election, I will win her seat in Congress.” He said he planned to update voters on his plans at a town hall Thursday night.

Tague said that he looked forward to continuing to work with Stefanik. “While the withdrawal of her nomination is unfortunate for America, her continued service in Congress is a tremendous advantage for New York’s 21st District,” he said in a statement.

State GOP Chair Ed Cox called Stefanik a “rockstar” while applauding that New Yorkers would retain her as a representative. Joy and Stec could not be reached for comment.

Gendebien has the clearest political future out of the field now. With no special election, he wouldn’t have anything to campaign for until 2026. He remains a longshot; in a normal election cycle, he will face the same issues that have plagued every Democratic nominee that has failed to unseat Stefanik. But he has made it clear he intends to run anyway.

“I’m committed to representing the community that raised me, regardless of when that election is,” he said on X.

Other than highlighting intra-Republican ideological differences and grudges, it’s not obvious what this monthslong process accomplished. Republican strategist Bill O’Reilly said it just shows how much of a team player Stefanik is and how fickle politics can be.

“It's a lesson in getting candidates together more quickly, or I don't know,” O’Reilly told City & State. “I mean, at the end of the day, it didn't matter. So that's really not the lesson at all. It's that you just can't make this stuff up.”