What makes a good special election candidate?

Special elections in New York are as regular as blizzards and apple picking season, yet the thought process that goes into selecting candidates seems to vary wildly. 

In recent cycles, Republicans have mostly been on the back foot in special elections, though the big ticket contest currently brewing in the North Country strays from this pattern, putting Democrats in the unenviable position of having to find a candidate that can hold their own in the 21st Congressional District, which has been firmly in the grip of Republicans under Rep. Elise Stefanik’s tenure over the past 10 years. But Republicans and Democrats alike have had varying success with picking strong candidates that can capture the imagination of an electorate in a condensed campaign cycle. There are a few ways each party can go in the North Country, but how do they usually fare? 

Party insiders across the spectrum share an interest in bench building, ensuring that if an official retires, resigns, is appointed to an administration role or otherwise leaves office, there are plenty of able candidates to fill or at least contend for their seat. “You just have to be prepared for any scenario in politics and the best political party infrastructures continually do that,” political consultant Alec Lewis said.

But picking strong candidates is easier said than done.

The nadir of Republican special election runs in recent years was probably Mazi Pilip’s ill-fated run against Rep. Tom Suozzi in the 3rd Congressional District special election last winter. What Republicans had hoped to turn into a referendum on the border and crime in New York City turned into business as usual for Suozzi, who had represented the district in the recent past.

A lot can be said about the Nassau County GOP’s ability to find candidates – most of it negative following the George Santos saga – but there was confusion even early in the process about how they landed on a candidate who was a registered Democrat with difficult-to-articulate policy positions outside of strong support for Israel.

Suozzi, for Democrats’ part, had strong name recognition from his time in Congress and as Nassau County executive and a strong centrist identity that lent itself to success in the increasingly Republican-friendly Long Island suburbs. Any bad blood from his run for the statehouse was overlooked for the greater good of House gains. After beating Pilip, he won in November as well, beating Republican former Assembly Member Michael LiPetri. 

In the wake of former Lt. Gov. Brian Benjamin’s straw donor scandal, Gov. Kathy Hochul plucked Antonio Delgado from his 19th Congressional District House seat to be her new right hand and eventual running mate. In stepped Democratic Ulster County Executive Pat Ryan and Republican Dutchess County Executive Marc Molinaro to run for the seat that summer. 

On paper, it was a fairly even contest, although Molinaro had built up a decades-long reputation as a moderate lawmaker concerned with the issues of Hudson Valley over much else. Meanwhile, Ryan was a relative newcomer to politics, holding office for just four years following a career in tech and the military. 

The U.S. Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision proved too much for the “personally pro-life” Molinaro to overcome with their race serving as the first way for voters and donors to express their feelings about the future of reproductive rights in America. He did, however, end up winning a similarly tight race against Rep. Josh Riley that fall. 

That’s one of the pitfalls of special elections, according to experts. Beyond the awkward fit in the electoral calendar and the need to energize voters off-cycle, national issues can become hyper-local in the blink of an eye and tip the scales for or against candidates. 

Lewis said that while extremely frustrating, it’s par for the course that candidates and their teams can seemingly do everything right only for headlines outside of their control to upend their efforts. “It’s the same as any other election,” he said. “It’s the realization there could be something huge and big that happens on a global level or national level that has way more of an impact on your election than anything that you even have control over.”

Sometimes, the electoral map can more or less decide the race before it even begins, leaving party leaders to think less about the general election and instead about future primaries, weighing the ramifications of a local candidate getting bumped up to Congress. 

Rep. Tim Kennedy was nominated by Erie and Niagara County Democrats to run for former Rep. Brian Higgins’ 26th Congressional District seat, following Higgins’ departure to lead the Shea Performing Arts Center. Kennedy was congratulated on the new role by his then peers in the state Senate before he’d even won the race. But not everyone was pleased. Congressional hopeful Nate McMurray, who’d pitched himself to party leaders prior to Kenendy’s selection, later primaried Kennedy to no avail.

“I think he had done the work,” Buffalo-based consultant Jack O’Donnell said of Kennedy. “He had demonstrated his ability to fundraise, he had built really strong relationships with constituency groups, whether those were ministers, whether those were labor unions, whether those were funders. He was kind of in the best position not just to win the special election but in theory to win any potential primary that might come after that, if someone else had gotten the special election nom. I think it comes down to political strength rather than being next in line.”

North Country Republicans have a lot to consider leading up to their nomination, which is nearing its final stages as Stefanik prepares to leave Congress to become U.N. ambassador. Assembly Member Billy Jones, the candidate representing Democrats’ best shot at the seat, announced he wouldn’t be seeking the nomination, paving the way for a much easier, albeit not guaranteed, victory for the eventual Republican nominee. 

Political strategist Morgan Hook said that now the task for each side, as they land on a nominee, is to take the race seriously, which is apparently easier said than done. “Don’t take it for granted,” he said. “Don’t assume that you’re going to win and pick somebody who is lousy. That’s the advice to Republicans. For Democrats, don’t assume you’re going to lose and pick someone who is lousy.”