Hochul’s soft launch for reelection

Speaking to reporters after Gov. Kathy Hochul’s annual State of the State address – where she proposed middle class tax cuts, free school meals and increased police presence on New York City subways – Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie called the speech “one of the best State of the State speeches I’ve heard in the Legislature.” It’s high praise from Heastie, who has served under five governors since he entered the chamber in 2001. What made it so good? “ I think it kind of touched on everything that people have been concerned about,” he said.

Although the race for governor is still a little less than two years away, Hochul’s speech on Tuesday seemed like a soft launch for her reelection, both in substance and production. This year’s address had more pomp and circumstance than her first three, starting with a change of location from the Assembly chamber to the much larger The Egg performing arts center. The governor had an over 45-minute introduction that included a marching band, a dance performance and choir singers. When she finally took the stage, Hochul laid out an agenda that, when condensed, would make for a great stump speech. “Today, I’m going to share my vision for a New York where hardworking people can get ahead, where children can play safely in their neighborhoods, where opportunities are plentiful and where champions are forged,” Hochul said in her address. 

On the heels of a presidential election where economic messaging played a crucial role in President-elect Donald Trump’s victory, Hochul pitched a $1 billion tax cut for the middle class, increased tax credits for families, direct rebate checks to most taxpayers in the state and free school meals for all students. With concern over public safety heightened due to high-profile violent crimes in New York City once again dominating headlines, the governor proposed state funding to ensure that police will patrol every overnight subway train for the next six months, as well as an expansion of the state’s involuntary commitment laws to get severely mentally ill people off the street and changes that rollback reforms to the state’s discovery laws. “Today’s speech and the proposals laid out, essentially, is her 2026 reelection platform – fight crime, make New York more affordable, back off from some of the environmental agenda for the sake of people’s pocket, education, Bills, Bills, Bills,” said political consultant Joe Bonilla. 

The governor made no mention of Trump or the incoming administration, even as some lawmakers and a variety of advocates have pushed for measures to protect New Yorkers from potential federal policies that could harm them. Hochul had made it clear almost since the election that rather than taking on a resistance approach that characterized Trump’s first term, she would try to find common ground with the incoming president while still  protecting the rights of New Yorkers. Even in a resistance-style press conference the day after the election with Trump foe and state Attorney General Letitia James, Hochul said she would “work with him or anybody else” to help New York. The lack of any mention of Trump, whose presence is expected to loom over state policy priorities the next four years, offered further indication that she’s not looking to go on the attack against a Republican president who performed better in New York than any GOP candidate has in decades.

The election feeling was underscored by the presence of Republican Rep. Mike Lawler at the state Capitol to give a sort of pre-buttal to Hochul’s speech. Lawler has not been shy about considering a run for governor.  “We are in the 2026 gubernatorial cycle and today Hochul set the stage for next year,” said Democratic consultant Jack O’Donnell. “Lawler’s appearance reaffirms that.” 

Lawler called Hochul  “a feckless and failed governor who needs to be replaced in 2026,” before touting his own bipartisan chops during a press conference that felt like an early preview of the gubernatorial campaign trail. When asked, Lawler said he wouldn’t make a final decision for “some time” about whether to run, but he committed to getting Hochul out of office either way.

Even as he trashed the governor, Lawler said that some of her proposals “sound good on paper” and admitted that some “may even be good ideas,” such as affordable home ownership and investments into childcare. The issue, he said, is that those are “pie-in-the-sky promises” that she can’t deliver on.

On the other side of the political spectrum, Working Families Party Co-Director Jasmine Gripper said that overall, the vision Hochul laid out in the State of the State was one that she was pleased with – as long as the governor actually delivers on her various promises without cutting services elsewhere. “I think this budget is her chance to prove to New Yorkers that she should stay in power,” Gripper said. “And I think what she accomplishes here will determine the field in the 2026 election.” 

The governor’s speech and accompanying policy book still left a lot of questions unanswered about where the money to pay for her various proposals will come, from as they made no mention of new revenue raisers or spending cuts. Hochul has consistently rejected the idea of increasing income taxes, but her budget director suggested last year that the state would likely need to look at new or raised taxes to fund the Metropolitan Transportation Authority’s capital plan. That would likely come in the form of a payroll mobility tax, similar to the one Hochul got approved in 2023 to plug a funding hole and the one from 2009 that cost Democrats the state Senate in the next election. Feelings on congestion pricing could also play a major role in how New Yorkers view the governor on affordability, particularly in the suburbs, come election time next year.

New Yorkers will have to wait until Hochul presents her executive budget next week to see more details of the governor’s vision. But she promised in her speech that her proposals will amount to more than just rhetoric that could sound good on the campaign trail. “I believe it needs to be much more than just lofty words,” Hochul said. “It should be a concrete blueprint that will deliver actual results that the people will feel. That’s what New Yorkers expect and that is what you will see today.”