A special election scramble to be Elise Stefanik’s successor

The dominos are starting to fall after President-elect Donald Trump’s win last week, and it will mean a new face in Congress for North Country residents. Rep. Elise Stefanik will eventually resign after accepting Trump’s offer to be U.N. ambassador and a special election date would have to be set within 90 days of her departure. And North Country Republicans shouldn’t be too worried about losing the seat to Democrats.

Stefanik’s 21st Congressional District encompasses the North Country, a sort of rural hinterland that spans from the edges of the Capitol Region to the Vermont and Canadian borders. The district has predominantly had Republican representation over the years, save for former Rep. Bill Owens’ tenure during the Obama administration, but under Stefanik and the rise of a Trump-driven Republican Party, the district is one of the deep-red parts of the state. There are a few blue pockets in places like Lake Placid and Plattsburgh, but several counties haven’t set up Democratic committees given the partisan makeup of the area.

There are already a few Republican politicians being discussed to replace Stefanik, including Rep. Marc Molinaro, Rensselaer County Executive Steve McLaughlin, state Sens. Dan Stec and Jake Ashby, and Assembly Members Chris Tague and Robert Smullen. Assembly Member Billy Jones is also considered an option for Democrats. Anthony Constantino, a vocal Trump supporter and CEO of printing company Sticker Mule, has formed a committee to run for the seat. Stefanik’s challenger in 2024, Democratic nominee Paula Collins, has also notified party leaders that she is interested in running for the seat again.

The question that no one has been able to answer is who does Stefanik want to replace her. Her team did not respond to requests for comment, but the influential lawmaker not only unified the district behind her but will likely play kingmaker as party insiders search for a nominee.

“What it really boils down to is who is the most reliable person we could put there to support President Trump, you know,” New York State Young Republicans Chair Peter Giunta said. “And I do think that that’s something that definitely weighs in my mind and weighs in the minds of party leaders out there.”

By virtue of timing, the special election could be a de facto referendum on Trump’s first 100 days in office and one of the first elections under his administration. Giunta said that as a result, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Trump administration’s influence in the race.

“You should expect to see a full investment from the National Republican Congressional Committee, from a Trump political team and then the New York GOP,” he said. “I mean, it would definitely be one of the most important races in the country.”

He added that of all the names being bandied about, Tague looked like a good option, both because of geography and track record, but also because he appears to be expressing a strong interest behind the scenes. Tague, though acknowledging it’s early, said, “I don’t rule out a run for Congress.”

However, the Schoharie Republican is well aware of the intensity of a special election after he entered office through one, narrowly beating Democrat Aidan O’Connor in April 2018.

“Special elections are a completely different animal than any other type of election,” Tague said. “In a district that I win now with 65% to 70% of the vote, in my first election in a special, I only won by 1%. So you know, anybody that’s thinking about getting involved in a special election needs to think long and hard. It is a lot of hard work. You have to raise a lot of money and you know, let’s face it, Democrats come out in higher numbers in special elections than Republicans do.”

Unless Collins can convince North Country Democrats that she would fare better in a Stefanik-free field, Jones might be the best candidate as one of the few Democrats to hold office in the region. However, with the unique ugliness that comes with congressional runs, it’s unclear if he would be open to the idea.

“He’s the only Democrat I can think of who would have a chance, but even then, he would need everything to go right and he has to decide he wants to do it,” political consultant Jack O’Donnell said. “I mean, I would be shocked that in this environment he would want to.”

Jones, like many candidates days after the election, was focused on his constituents in Assembly District 115, which includes parts of Essex, Clinton and Franklin counties. Jones said he was aware of the political movements around him. “It’s very early in the process, but I’m open to other options as well,” he said.

Republicans are expecting a good-faith attempt from Democrats who, pending the results of races across the country, could win a majority or create an even narrower margin for House Republicans. But Owens was the last Democrat to hold office in the region and the political environment in 2009 seems foreign in 2024.

“The only reason Bill Owens probably won was he was a lifelong native, very well known in the North Country, and the district was different then,” Essex County Democratic Committee Chair Maggie Bartley said. “We now have 15 counties. It was only 10 counties then, and he won, (but) he didn’t win by a lot.”

Bartley said Republican control in the region is what residents are used to, although Jones had a more optimistic view. “With the right candidate and the right to message, it gets through to people,” he said, “You know, anything can happen.”

O’Donnell said a successful candidate needs to be a perfect fit for the North Country and also hope for a Republican misstep. Strong support from the state Democratic Party, which has a limited footprint in the region, would also be crucial and it is unclear what that would look like. State Democratic Party Chair Jay Jacobs told City & State that the party was reviewing candidates and working up a strategy in days following Stefanik’s nomination. Failing a perfect storm though, O’Donnell said it’s possible that, “They’ll say, ‘Of course, we’re going to fight,’ and they’ll donate five grand and walk away.”

And there is still the fact that this would be a special election in the late winter or early spring in the North Country, where locals jokingly refer to Long Island, with its own special election weather woes, as “down south.” The prospect of knocking on doors through feet of snow may not be feasible for the candidates or the parties.

“There’s a lot of our people that don’t have internet and don’t have cell service,” Bartley said. “They’re still on landlines, which is why a lot of the technology that both parties have like, donating through QR codes, you know, WinRed and ActBlue means you have to be connected (wirelessly) financially to have the ability to do that. So that doesn’t work all the time either.”

Most, if not all eyes will be focused on the 21st Congressional District’s special election and not just in New York. Republicans are primed to control all branches of the federal government once Trump takes office, but his Cabinet appointments from the chamber could throw that into question, given the party’s slim majority.

“If he doesn’t have a functioning majority in this current two-year slot, or after the midterms, he is effectively a lame duck, and a lot of the Republicans that I’ve spoken to obviously don’t want that to happen,” Giunta said. “I’ve said to people, these could be some of the most transformative two or four years in our nation’s history.”