Ryan exudes confidence as he straddles ideological line toward reelection

Democratic Rep. Pat Ryan is evidently so confident about his election prospects that he’s happy to appear with anyone, be it a locally and regionally unpopular governor or a divisive colleague in Congress. Recent polling numbers may vindicate that approach in the end as he solidifies his base, but there still is the issue of discontent from the left. Will that hurt him as he attempts to paint himself as a moderate amid attacks from the right?

Unpopular governor

Gov. Kathy Hochul appeared with Ryan at a get-out-the-vote event in Millbrook on Saturday along with state and local candidates. It was a bold move for Ryan given the governor’s relative unpopularity. In the face of sustained criticism from national party figures like former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Hochul put together a statewide coordinated campaign that could, in theory, undo some of the discourse about her weakness as a Democratic standard bearer. So far, Hochul’s support for congressional candidates in the state has seemed to begin and end with boots on the ground and fiscal support. With the exception of Ryan, she has not generally not appeared with congressional candidates in the state’s swing districts, instead spending her time campaigning in battleground states.

During the 2022 gubernatorial general election, Hochul lost Ryan’s district to none other than Esposito, who was then running on the Republican ticket with former Rep. Lee Zeldin. Esposito’s impressive showing in that race appealed to local party leaders, who quickly got behind her last year when she announced her campaign against Ryan. 

Yet here was Ryan appearing alongside Hochul, trying to galvanize voters in Dutchess County and making it clear he was thankful for the governor’s support and for the creation of the coordinated campaign.

Polarizing progressive

Earlier this month, Ryan brought another polarizing figure to the district: Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Ryan appeared with the progressive standard-bearer in left-wing locales like Kingston and New Paltz, ostensibly to support environmental protections for the Hudson River. The optics of being seen with the most prominent progressive politician in the nation could help heal his relationship with more progressive constituents, who have protested him over his support for Israel – though it could also alienate more conservative voters in the district.

Ryan is walking a political tightrope as he tries to maintain support from both progressives and moderates. Meanwhile, Esposito is running an unapologetically right-wing campaign in a district that voted for her and Zeldin during the gubernatorial race two years ago.  To hold onto his seat, Ryan will need to rely on his ability to appeal to moderate voters who may feel put off by some of Esposito’s rhetoric while also seeming open-minded enough to younger and highly educated progressive voters in the district.

“In many ways, it's just a reflection of the same challenges Kamala Harris has, where you're bringing together a very diverse group of Democratic voters together, and ultimately, you're asking voters to have faith that both Kamala Harris and Pat Ryan are reasonable, common sense people that you can lobby and have discussions and dialog with,” political consultant Alec Lewis told City & State. “Versus Donald Trump, who has essentially embraced very nationalistic, potentially fascist policies, and Alison Esposito, who is essentially a standard-bearer for the Trump agenda.”

Ryan’s strategy may be paying off. “We've built a really broad coalition here that I think is unique for a lot of reasons. Had my colleague, AOC, here, have our governor here, I've talked about legislation I've co-sponsored with Republican colleagues, centering, on not the name calling and the negativity, but actually delivering results, which means you have to build a broad coalition to get things passed and to deliver results,” Ryan told reporters in Millbrook. “People are really responding to that and appreciating that.”

Anger on the left

Appearing with Ocasio-Cortez won’t be enough to mollify all progressive voters. A group called “NY-18 No Votes for Genocide,” which is organizing around a ceasefire in Gaza, said that 1,250 voters in the district have pledged not to vote for Ryan unless he pushes for an arms embargo against Israel.  

That’s a drop in the bucket in terms of overall Democratic voters in the district, especially with reports that early voting numbers in New York are trending historically high. But Ryan only won his seat by 3,592 votes two years ago. Mie Inouye, an organizer with NY-18 No Votes for Genocide, said Ryan has not successfully repaired his relationship with progressives in the district and some constituents reject the idea that the onus is on them to support the party in the face of a more conservative reality. Inouye said that all Ryan has to do to earn their vote is change his stance on the war, and then they would be happy to cast their ballot in his favor.

The organizers also have a plan if Ryan loses. “We would continue to make the same kinds of demands on Alison Esposito that we've been making on Pat Ryan for the past year,” Inouye said. “Our positions will remain clear on the genocide and I think that if Pat Ryan loses because of his support for the genocide, then I hope that that will be a signal to the Democratic Party that they can't continue with their kind of with their limitless support for Israel and expect to win in districts like CD-18.” 

In all likelihood, the majority of left-leaning voters will consider the reality of pulling support for Ryan when the alternative for a congressional representative is so closely aligned with Trump and hardline conservative ideology.

“If you're a Democrat, you may not be able to vote for a candidate that's 100% in line with your views,” Lewis said. “But are you going to stay home and let someone who completely disagrees with every political view you have potentially win? I don't think so.”