‘No one is safe.’ NY Dems fret over 2026 governor’s race

A week after the presidential election, newly reelected Rep. Mike Lawler was already looking two years into the future in an X post about a business leaving Western New York. “The only way we can change things for the better in our state is by changing governors,” he wrote. “We must make that happen in 2026.” 

Lawler hasn’t hidden the fact that he has ambitions for higher office. In May, he joked that he would be governor “in a couple of years” in a video recorded for the annual Legislative Correspondent’s Association show, a satirical performance by reporters in Albany that features rebuttals by leaders of both parties.

Conventional wisdom suggests that the party in power suffers during the midterms. Republicans will control all three branches of the federal government come January. New York Democrats have obviously denounced Donald Trump’s victory, but historical evidence indicates his presidency should help them, making their 2026 candidates safer than under a Harris administration. But after a weak performance by Gov. Kathy Hochul in 2022 and an overperformance by Trump across the state last week, some Democrats and their allies aren’t too confident about conventional wisdom.

“No one is safe,” said Kevin Elkins, political director of the New York City District Council of Carpenters. He said that he sees a pathway for Republicans to unseat Hochul in 2026. Manny Pastreich, president of the powerful 32BJ union that has historically supported Democratic candidates for governor, offered a similar assessment. “I think people should be nervous, yeah,” he told City & State.

As Democrats and their allies at the annual Somos conference digested the outcome of the presidential election, where Trump had the best performance of any Republican candidate in New York in decades, there were split opinions on what it means for the party in 2026, and whether incumbents like Hochul are vulnerable to Republican challenges. Some leaned on the fact that Democrats enjoyed their largest blue wave in years in 2018 with Trump in power. One Democratic insider described Trump as a “6’3’’ orange anchor” around the neck of any Republican who chooses to run. 

In 2018, Democrats not only unseated incumbents from their own party who had a power-sharing agreement with Republicans in the state Senate, but fully gained control of the chamber for the first time since the 2008 election. And unlike the turbulent two years of power back then, state Senate Majority Leader Andrea Stewart-Cousins kept firm control of her members and the Legislature immediately began passing long-stalled Democratic priorities at the start of the 2019 legislative session. Then-Gov. Andrew Cuomo also sailed to reelection against now-Rep. Marc Molinaro, who at the time was the famously middle-of-the-road Dutchess County executive.

In 2024, there was a drop-off for Republicans down the ballot even as support for Trump increased, suggesting that there were more Trump-specific voters than Republican voters in New York, which could bode well for Democrats in an election year without a presidential election – and without Trump on the ballot. Democrats like Rep. Tom Suozzi and Rep.-elect Laura Gillen both won in Nassau County despite Trump carrying the county, just like state Sen. James Skoufis in Orange County, also won by Trump. And Democrats overall flipped three House seats despite Trump’s gains in the state. But a lot depends on whether Hochul can improve her standing with voters. “I hope she’s scared enough to do a really good job the next two years,” said one consultant, who nonetheless thought 2026 would be a good year for Democrats.

Others suggested that despite the historical evidence that Democrats do well when Trump is in office, the party should be concerned about holding on to the governorship. New York, while not a swing state at the federal level, has historically fluctuated between Democratic and Republican leadership. Over the past several decades, the state has generally flipped after about 20 years of leadership from one party. New York hasn’t elected a Republican since George Pataki’s last election in 2002 – so in some ways, the state is due for a GOP governor. The right came the closest it has since Pataki two years ago, when former Rep. Lee Zeldin came within single digits – about six percentage points – of besting Hochul. “I think New York Democrats are vulnerable to a power shift,” said Working Families Party Co-Director Jasmine Gripper. “When we look at the numbers and the histories, there's no one political party in New York that's held a trifecta for this long.”

Since the 2022 election, the governor’s job approval and favorability have tanked, hitting record lows in poll after poll, with minimal observable bounceback so far. Although Democrats maintained control of both the state Senate and the Assembly this year, the party did lose its one-seat supermajority in the state Senate, a fact that Republicans celebrated. And Trump picked up ground across the state, including in Latino communities in New York City that have historically been Democratic strongholds. Harris won the state by the smallest Democratic margin in decades, while Trump flipped parts of counties like Nassau that haven’t supported a Republican since Ronald Reagan. “The GOP have a very good shot to win the governor’s office in 2026,” said one Democratic consultant. “Tuesday’s results show that centrist Democrats and unaffiliated voters on Long Island and in the Hudson Valley are open to supporting a challenger to Gov. Hochul and those votes will be critical to any 2026 election.”

According to consultant Joe Bonilla, Democrats like Hochul need to “change their playbook” over the next two years. “If Democrats believe their messaging playbook is working – especially after losing ground in deep blue areas whether in the city or upstate – it will inevitably lead to the GOP retaking the governor’s mansion in 2026,” he said, adding that the last election “was not an aberration; it’s a trend.” Even among those who believe that Democrats will be relatively safe in 2026, there is an agreement that the party needs to reevaluate its shortcomings from the presidential election and figure out how to reach out to Latino and other immigrant communities that have been shifting to the right since before this November. “Since taking office, Governor Hochul has prioritized bringing down crime, putting money back in New Yorkers’ pockets, and helping families across the state on issues of childcare, paid leave, mental health and more,” said Hochul campaign spokesperson Jen Goodman. “The Governor will continue to listen to the needs of New Yorkers and work tirelessly to deliver on issues that are top of mind for families across the state.”

Republicans see an opportunity as well, particularly after breaking the state Senate Democratic supermajority. State GOP Chair Ed Cox saw that accomplishment as a crucial first step to recruiting a strong candidate to run statewide in 2026, and he asserted that Republicans had a good shot at the governor’s mansion. “(Hochul) is certainly vulnerable," Cox said. 

A spokesperson for Lawler said that he is focused on his job in Congress right now, but said he has been approached about running for higher office. “Congressman Lawler appreciates the encouragement he’s received to consider higher office, and he’s listening,” spokesperson Nate Soule told City & State. Winning his reelection by over six percentage points while Democrats felled fellow freshman Republicans certainly puts him better footing to run statewide in 2026 than his razor-thin 2022 victory. And Lawler is already going full offensive against Hochul as he attacks her for privately planning to flip congestion pricing back on. “It’s great that Governor @KathyHochul is so concerned about the cost of living in New York,” Lawler facetiously wrote on X in response to a recent affordability announcement from Hochul. “That must be why she’s trying to charge hard-working, middle-class New Yorkers, including our cops, teachers, nurses, and firefighters, $9 just to drive to work. What a joke.”