Johnson and Jeffries appear at dueling rallies in NY-19

In the closing days of the election, Republican and Democratic leaders have made the state’s battleground districts one of their main focuses. On Friday, both House Speaker Mike Johnson and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries traveled to the 19th Congressional District, where Republican Rep. Marc Molinaro is attempting to fend off a challenge from Democrat Josh Riley. 

The recent visits to upstate New York by the most powerful Republican and Democratic leaders in the House underscore the importance of the 19th Congressional District and the state’s other handful of swing districts in Long Island and the Hudson Valley. Johnson’s Republican majority in Congress is famously thin, and Jeffries could be crowned speaker if his party redeems itself after failing to turn out and retain voters in the 2022 midterm elections. Both Johnson and Jeffries have said that the path to control runs through New York and California.

“Speaker Johnson can be anywhere in America right now,” former Rep. Lee Zeldin told the crowd during a rally with Johnson and Molinaro in Binghamton on Friday. “There are House races going on coast to coast that are targeted battleground House districts, but Speaker Johnson is right here in NY-19. So that message for that supporter of Marc Molinaro out there is: ‘You can't sit this one out.’”

In his own remarks to reporters following the rally, Johnson said that Molinaro’s success or failure would serve as an indicator of Republican prospects across the country. “When he's reelected, I believe that will be the bellwether for the whole Congress. That's how important this seat is, and we'll have the majority in the numbers necessary to advance this very aggressive first 100 days agenda of the Congress… Marc is the key to that,” Johnson told reporters. “This district, literally, is the key to that.”

The congressional race in the 19th Congressional District is the most expensive general election race in the country in terms of overall spending. That’s partly due in part to the size of the sprawling district, which spans from the Hudson Valley and Capitol region all the way to the Southern Tier and encompasses three different media markets. The race is also one of the most contentious in the state. 

Republican Rep. Marc Molinaro narrowly beat Democrat Josh Riley two years ago in a red wave that was seemingly limited to New York. Riley, a former U.S. Senate attorney, vowed to challenge Molinaro again. The grudge match between the two candidates has gotten nasty at times; the first and only debate between the two of them devolved into hostility and name-calling. In the final days of the election, Republicans across the country have closed ranks around Molinaro, while Democratic leaders have attempted to prop up Riley’s campaign.

At a get-out-the-vote rally for Riley in Ithaca, Jeffries sounded a lot like Johnson as he emphasized how Riley’s success or failure could help determine whether Democrats retake control of the House and he becomes speaker. “This is a critically important race, one of the most important races in the country,” Jeffries said. “We're only four seats short in taking back the majority, and this could be the seat that could make the difference.”

Riley’s approach this cycle has focused on increasing turnout among his base, which is generally located in the less rural sections of the sprawling district, while also appealing to middle-of-the-road voters who may be turned off by Molinaro’s embrace of MAGA politics. 

Meanwhile, Molinaro has attempted to galvanize conservative voters via a new image and style of rhetoric more indicative of the national Republican Party. The dynamic is a microcosm of battleground races across the state and nation as Democrats hope to rebound from a disastrous midterm election in 2022 and Republicans attempt to solidify power in the hopes of pushing through their agenda under a possible Trump presidency.

Speaking to reporters, Jeffries said that Democrats have learned the lessons of 2022 and are now primed to return to power through a mix of smart candidate selection and message sharpening. 

“We've been able to do a significant reset,” he said. When asked if the 19th Congressional District was a bellwether district, he called it incredibly important, likening it to a snapshot of New York. 

In his own remarks to reporters, Riley said that partisan appeals matter less than a strong message that resonates with voters in the region, which political analysts say is evenly split in terms of political allegiance. “Around here, it's not so much about what your political party is,” he said. “It's about the basic upstate values.”

The 19th Congressional District is only one of a half-dozen swing districts in the state that Johnson and Jeffries have been visiting in the final stretch of the election.

Johnson has been climbing his way up through New York – beginning in Long Island, snaking through the Hudson Valley and culminating with a visit to Rep. Brandon Williams in Syracuse. That stop was easily the nadir of his trip to the state, after the speaker caused controversy (and even prompted a rebuke from Williams) after he suggested that the Republican majority in the House would repeal the CHIPS and Science Act, which brought semiconductor manufacturer and job creator Micron to Williams’ 22nd Congressional 

Jeffries had a similar itinerary, stopping in Syracuse and Hurley over the weekend to appear with state Sen. John Mannion, who’s challenging Williams in the 22nd Congressional District, and with Rep. Pat Ryan in the 18th Congressional District.