Gillen declares victory in NY-4 as Trump wins Nassau County

Democrat Laura Gillen declared victory in the 4th Congressional District shortly before midnight on election night, even as incumbent Republican Rep. Anthony D’Esposito declined to concede. Although the race was still too close to call by the Associated Press, Democrats were likely looking for reasons to celebrate on what turned out to be a tough night for the party overall – as Republicans won control of the U.S. Senate and former President Donald Trump looked set to return to the White House, having overperformed in New York as well.

With all precincts reporting, Gillen led D’Esposito by just 1.7 percentage points, or roughly 6,000 votes. Despite the closeness of the race, and the fact that it remained uncalled, Gillen projected confidence while speaking to supporters at the swanky Garden City Hotel. “I am so humbled and honored to be your new congresswoman,” she said. Gillen said she and Democrats put together a “winning campaign that we will emulate for years to come,” touting 300,000 doors knocked and more than 600,000 phone calls made. Last week, Democratic officials said that heading into election day, volunteers in the 4th Congressional District had knocked on five times as many doors as they did in 2022. 

Before Gillen took the stage, state and Nassau Democratic Party Chair Jay Jacobs shouted out the coordinated campaign led by Gov. Kathy Hochul, U.S. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries. For the first time in recent history, the state Democratic Party dedicated time, money and resources in a coordinated manner to elect congressional candidates, rather than serving only as a vehicle for the governor’s reelection. With the help of that effort, Jacobs said, “we’ve had a great night here in Nassau County.” He then introduced Gillen and Rep. Tom Suozzi, who won a tight race for reelection in the neighboring 3rd Congressional District. Suozzi’s race was also not called at the time he declared victory.

But Democrats had reason to feel down about the election night results too, including in Nassau County. Vice President Kamala Harris, who appeared on track to lose the presidential race, lost both Nassau and Suffolk Counties on Long Island to Trump. Although Trump had won Suffolk in 2016, he had never before won Nassau, with Democrats winning the county in every presidential election since 1992. This year, though, Trump picked up Nassau by a little over five percentage points. If Gillen and Suozzi’s leads hold, they will have won their races in spite of Harris, rather than benefiting from her coattails. 

Gillen wouldn’t opine on the outcome of the presidential race, or Harris’ performance in Nassau County, when asked by reporters. “I can’t speak for the presidential, I can speak for my race,” she said. “We worked tirelessly… And (voters) just wanted a change.” Suozzi similarly offered little insight on Harris’ poor showing after she won by the smallest margin of any Democrat in New York in years. “I think the bottom line is when you're out campaigning here in New York state or anywhere in the country, you've got to show people that all you want to do is solve problems and make people's lives better,” he told reporters. When asked whether he believed Harris didn’t do that adequately, he said she “did a fantastic job.”

D’Esposito campaigned heavily on the Trump brand in the Democratic-leaning moderate district. He appeared with Trump at a September campaign rally and has generally tied himself to the party’s standard-bearer in a similar way as fellow Rep. Nick LaLota, who enjoyed a comfortable margin of victory to win his second term. The presidential results in Nassau would lend credence to the idea that D’Esposito’s strategy could have been a sound one, but he still trailed on election night even as Trump enjoyed a strong showing in the county. 

It’s unclear what exactly caused the drop-off between the presidential and congressional results for the Republican incumbent. It could be attributed to the strength of the Democratic operation this cycle, which is what Gillen and Jacobs would point to. Long Island is no stranger to split-ticket voters. Negative press against D’Esposito a little over a month out from the election could also have swayed voters against him. But it’s also possible that in a county that backed Trump, D’Esposito’s attempts at being moderate – such as initially opposing House Speaker Mike Johnson’s bid for speaker – were evidence that he was not Republican enough for voters.