In 2025 mayoral race, Trump backlash isn’t a given this time

Before this week, the challengers to Mayor Eric Adams weren’t climbing over each other to occupy the progressive lane in the competitive Democratic primary. In the months leading up to the presidential election, some observers predicted that contenders might claim that mantel more assuredly if Donald Trump prevailed and set off another jolt of Democratic energy like New York saw in 2018. 

But in the immediate aftermath of President-elect Donald Trump’s victory on Tuesday – and his across the board gains in New York City – the candidates making their rounds at Somos aren’t positioning themselves as “progressive” alternatives to Trump, and some observers suggested another blue wave is not guaranteed. 

The Democratic primary next June is far from set. Five candidates have mounted serious campaigns at this point, though that field is still in flux. The corruption case against Adams – which put the possibility of a special election on the table, along with candidates including Jumaane Williams and Attorney General Letitia James – is itself in flux, as Trump could effectively wipe away Adams’ legal troubles.

The 2025 mayoral race will be one of the first tests for how New York Democrats confront a rightward shift in a reliably blue city. Gains for Trump were seen across all five boroughs, but were particularly pronounced in working class, immigrant and communities of color in southern Brooklyn, and parts of Queens and the Bronx. 

Some of the areas with the strongest Democratic primary turnout – including brownstone Brooklyn and parts of Manhattan – don’t overlap with the neighborhoods that saw the largest bumps for Trump this year. Even still, mayoral candidates in campaign mode at Somos aren’t spending much time talking about ideology. Close observers and politicos – still digesting the GOP’s growing foothold in the city – suggest that’s for the best. 

“There’s no question that there are several slices of reliable voters who care about things like ideological affiliation or specific issues. But the vast majority of New Yorkers are looking for leadership that delivers, not that pontificates,” said Amit Bagga, a Democratic strategist and principal at Public Progress.

“Tuesday’s results demonstrated that ideology is secondary – it’s about talking to voters about issues they care about in a style and through an approach that resonates with them,” another consultant said, noting that could benefit a candidate like former Gov. Andrew Cuomo, who is considering a run. “Progressive candidates are struggling to present policies in a way that doesn’t come across as elitist or esoteric,” they said. “We’ll see if the left-most candidates for mayor are able to tap into this populist wave in a way that feels authentic.” 

Assembly Member Zohran Mamdani, who is a Democratic socialist and the left-most candidate in the race, could try to thread that needle. While Mamdani’s campaign will appeal to progressives and the far left, he launched with policies like freezing rents for rent-stabilized tenants that aim to also appeal to a broader swath of New Yorkers fed up with the cost of housing.

“We have to see that for so many Americans and for so many New Yorkers, the economy and their inability to afford just bare minimum expenses of day-to-day life was top of mind as a concern for them,” Mamdani told City & State earlier this week. “When they went to the ballot box, they had one campaign whose explicit message had been, throughout this last year – ‘Life has gotten more expensive for you since I’ve been gone. I will make it cheaper, as it once was.’”

To some, Trump’s gains in outer borough communities – including jumps in Asian American and Latino neighborhoods in southern Brooklyn, eastern Queens and the Bronx – reflects Democrats’ failure to both engage those voters and listen to their concerns. Despite growing awareness of Democrats’ need to revamp their approach to engaging those communities with in-language outreach, the execution of that playbook is far from complete. “The candidate who wins is going to be the candidate that can address most directly what New Yorkers are screaming that they need and are angry about – and do so in the languages that they speak both literally and proverbially,” Bagga said. 

As the 2025 cycle begins in earnest, Democratic mayoral candidates are now speaking to voters’ disillusionment with their own party – not just with the incumbent mayor.

“I think this election sort of reflected a simmering anger and disgust – a disgust with the status quo,” said former New York City Comptroller Scott Stringer. Asked whether the election also reflected a simmering anger with Democrats in general, Stringer answered that Democrats have to “step up,” especially in New York City, mentioning focusing on issues like housing and quality education.

“It was true before Tuesday that people are fed up with the city’s failure to deliver on core affordability, safety and quality of life issues. To me, Tuesday’s results underline that very story. That’s what people are, all around the country, fed up with,” said New York City Comptroller Brad Lander. “In New York City, it’s the responsibility of City Hall, of the mayor, to deliver on those bread and butter issues.”

State Sens. Zellnor Myrie and Jessica Ramos have been through the post-Trump blue bump before – both were both elected to the state Legislature in 2018’s blue wave. “In 2018, with Trump in office, New Yorkers voted for change in Albany – and as a result, we enacted strong new legislation that protected working class New Yorkers,” Myrie said. “New Yorkers just made clear at the ballot box they are frustrated with the status quo and want new leadership that can tackle the cost of living, bring down housing prices, and make our streets safer – and that’s what I’m working to deliver.”

Ramos isn’t taking a blue wave for granted this time, saying it will happen “only if we organize.”

The impact of Trump's victory on Adams’ campaign isn’t just a matter of shifting voter sentiments. Trump could very well smooth over the federal corruption charges against Adams, whether with his power and influence over the U.S. Attorney’s Office, or by pardoning him if he's convicted. Timing matters there. With Adams’ trial start date set just two months before primary election day and the trial expected to go – for now at least – four to six weeks, a pardon would likely come too little too late for Adams. But collaboration with Trump could also poison Adams in some of the liberal strongholds that reliably turnout in Democratic primaries.

Despite plenty of theorizing at Somos about how Democrats can chart a course forward, some are hesitant to make predictions about the future. The level of Democratic enthusiasm sparked in reaction to Trump’s victory could also be defined by what he actually does in office, suggested Assembly Member Brian Cunningham. “If he continues to be a bully and continues to be an antagonizer-in-chief and not a commander-in-chief, I think you’ll see the left (catching) flame, like they did in 2016. And that could embolden somebody who’s more left of center to become the mayor,” he said. “If (Trump) tampers down the rhetoric, if the economy seems to be moving in the same direction – moving on job growth, prices coming down – I think people will then begin to say, ‘We need to move in a more pragmatic space.’”