Will embracing Trump help or hurt Long Island Republicans in November?

In the middle of September, former President Donald Trump made his first campaign visit to Long Island since 2017, which has become a Republican stronghold in a state that hasn’t supported a Republican for president in almost half a century.

In an enormous show of force for the island, over 60,000 people requested tickets for the event at Nassau Coliseum, which seats up to 16,000 people. Hours before the doors opened, the parking lot was already packed and thousands of supporters were lining up outside to ensure they got a spot in the venue for the start of Trump’s speech. The message that local leaders were trying to send was clear: Long Island is still Trump country.

Before Trump took the stage, Reps. Anthony D’Esposito and Nick LaLota – both first-term Republicans – addressed the crowd. The event took place in D’Esposito’s 4th Congressional District, where he is fighting to hold on to the blue-leaning seat that he won two years ago.

“This district is the biggest target of the Democrat Party,” D’Esposito said, before asking the question likely on the mind of many political observers. “And they said to me, why would you want Donald Trump visiting your district?”

It’s a fair question. President Joe Biden won both D’Esposito’s district and Nassau County as a whole in 2020. Before D’Esposito won the open seat in 2022, it was held by a Democrat. And in the neighboring 3rd Congressional District, Democratic Rep. Tom Suozzi succeeded in flipping the majority-Nassau County seat in a highly watched special election in February.

LaLota’s 1st Congressional District in Suffolk County is closer to Trump country. “Nine months ago, I became the first congressman from a purple district to endorse Donald J. Trump,” LaLota proudly told the crowd. Though traditionally considered a swing district, it has been held by Republicans for the past decade.

Both D’Esposito and LaLota have hitched their wagons to Trump as they seek to win reelection – a strategy that will test the staying power of MAGA politics on Long Island. For Democrats, it could provide a rare opportunity to mobilize anti-Trump sentiment to push vulnerable Republicans out of Long Island

For the past several years, Long Island Republicans have enjoyed a comfortable “red wave,” picking up seats in an area of the state that had traditionally leaned purple or even blue, all while Democrats have had success in other parts of New York. Although President Joe Biden won Nassau County in 2020 – by more votes than Hillary Rodham Clinton did in 2016 – Republicans began a winning streak in the suburban county in 2021. It started with the race for Nassau County executive, when Republican Bruce Blakeman won an upset victory over Democratic incumbent Laura Curran. Blakeman quickly moved to raise his profile – implementing a controversial ban on trans female athletes competing on women’s teams at county facilities, approving the state’s first mask ban since the start of the pandemic and moving to deputize citizens for the creation of a new force that many have characterized as a county militia. Despite representing a purple district, Blakeman has gained national attention for his right-wing policies and becoming a close ally of Trump.

In neighboring Suffolk County, which has always trended more conservative than Nassau County, voters supported Trump in both 2016 and 2020 – albeit by a smaller margin the second time. Suffolk also experienced a red wave in 2021 with the surprise victory of Republican Ray Tierney over Democratic incumbent Tim Sini in the county’s district attorney race. The next year, Republican congressional candidate and former Rep. Lee Zeldin swept the island when he ran against Gov. Kathy Hochul, contributing to the closest governor’s race in decades. And, of course, D’Esposito and LaLota won their first elections – along with former Rep. George Santos. By the end of 2023, Republicans controlled all four congressional seats on Long Island, both of its county executive positions, both of its district attorneys’ offices as well as majorities of both county legislatures.

Republicans are confident that Long Island remains Trump country, and some polling bears that out. A Siena College/Newsday poll from August found the former president leading Vice President Kamala Harris by 6 percentage points on Long Island in a head-to-head race. In Suffolk County, Trump was up 14 points over Harris, while in Nassau County, Harris still led Trump, but only by 3 percentage points – a much smaller lead than the one she holds statewide.

For the island’s two vulnerable first-term Republicans, those are obviously good numbers. LaLota didn’t mince his words of support at the September rally. “Donald Trump is the strong and bold American leader that we need,” he said. “Donald Trump can secure our border, he can rebuild our economy and make America strong on the world stage again.” And in answering his own rhetorical question about why he would want Trump in his swing district, D’Esposito painted the former president as the answer to the country’s woes. “I want Donald Trump to make our economy stronger,” he said. “I want Donald Trump to secure our border.”

New York Republicans see the Trump rally as proof that the Republican brand on the island – and support for Trump – isn’t wavering. Speaking before Trump, Blakeman likened it to Woodstock – “peace, love and Donald Trump.” Republican Assembly Member Ed Ra of Nassau County said he expects Trump to perform “very well on Long Island, as evidenced by the enthusiasm and energy” at the rally. Attendees like Vincent Dabone from Oceanside in Nassau County called Trump’s visit an “epic event.” He even allowed his teenage son to play hooky in order to witness it. “(Trump’s) here to support the downticket, he’s here to support Congressman D’Esposito and all the Republicans that won two years ago, many of them by a smaller margin,” Dabone said. “So him coming down means a lot.

Between the two main Republican-held battleground districts on Long Island, most observers acknowledge that LaLota, in red Suffolk County, is safer than D’Esposito. Recent redistricting made the district slightly more Republican compared to when he first won it in 2022, and despite its traditional “swing” designation, the 1st Congressional District has become fairly Republican in recent years. His Democratic challenger, former CNN anchor John Avlon, is a political newcomer. A Long Island Democratic consultant, who was granted anonymity to speak candidly about an election that is a high priority for the party, effectively conceded the race to Republicans. “Avlon is an uphill battle simply (because) Suffolk has become so Trumpy – that county is lost for Democrats for the next decade if not longer,” the consultant said.

In that sense, LaLota’s strong connection to Trump makes sense. “It remains to be seen whether this is helpful or hurtful, but let’s just say for LaLota’s situation, it’s probably a safer way to go,” said Long Island political analyst and pollster Mike Dawidziak. The same cannot necessarily be said for D’Esposito. He faces a rematch with Democrat Laura Gillen, whom he narrowly defeated two years ago. In 2020, Biden won his district by more than 14 percentage points, and a Siena College/Newsday poll found that 56% of Nassau County voters surveyed had an unfavorable opinion of Trump. In his more purple district, tightly embracing Trump could be risky.

The LaLota campaign declined to make him available following requests for an interview, but a previous statement sent to City & State about the Trump rally alluded to LaLota’s stronger position and his united front with D’Esposito, whom LaLota spokesperson Will Kiley called LaLota’s “best friend in Congress.” Kiley said LaLota is “investing” in the D’Esposito race, with plans to hold fundraising events for his fellow freshman. “Navy veteran LaLota and NYPD veteran D’Esposito have been soldier-partners fighting for Long Island in Congress, and they’re both eager to earn a second term to continue fighting for Long Island,” Kiley said.

According to Zeldin, D’Esposito’s seat on paper “should be a very difficult seat for a Republican to hold in any year.” But he still contended that tying oneself to the top of the ticket can only help the down-ballot Republicans, asserting that the Trump brand is still strong enough on the island that his seal of approval will benefit the congressional candidates. “They like it when they see a shout-out for the Republican candidate from their district, and that just gets them more invested and excited,” Zeldin said. “Because the presidential candidate who they support is telling them to support that House candidate in their district.”

Dawidziak is not so sure. He said the Trump rally is unlikely to have much of an impact on the congressional races because the type of voters who are excited by the event have already made up their minds. “I don’t think it was as helpful at all,” he said. “I mean, if anything, it’s probably had an equal energizing effect on Democrats as it did on Republicans.”

Dawidziak contrasted D’Esposito with Rep. Andrew Garbarino, the Suffolk County Republican in the 2nd Congressional District who first won his seat in 2020 when former Rep. Pete King – a classic Long Island moderate for most of his time in office – decided to retire. Although he has accepted Trump’s endorsement, Garbarino has not hitched his horse nearly as strongly to his party’s standard bearer. Unlike D’Esposito and LaLota, he didn’t attend September’s Trump rally, nor did he receive a shout-out from the former president during his speech. Although Dawidziak acknowledged that the two first-year representatives are in a different category – “the saying is, you win your seat in Congress when you win your first reelect” – he suggested that Garbarino’s race is one that won’t be dominated by national politics. “It’s just a fact that there (are) going to be a lot of Harris/Garbarino voters in this district,” he said.

Split-ticket voting seems much less likely in the battleground districts. Gillen, D’Esposito’s Democratic opponent, essentially wrote off the idea of split ticket voters for her own campaign at a recent Emily’s List event. “(You can change the kind of America that we live in) by going out to vote, bringing your whole family with you, calling your neighbors – except the ones who like Trump,” she joked. “We need them at home.

Democrats, for their part, are getting energized. The party has suffered setbacks on Long Island as Republicans have focused heavily on state and local issues like the migrant crisis and criminal justice reforms. But Democrats now see an opportunity to turn the congressional races into a referendum on Trump and mobilize enough anti-Trump moderates to push out D’Esposito and even LaLota. The day Trump came to Long Island, Democrats organized their own (understandably much smaller) counterrally outside Nassau Coliseum. State and Nassau County Democratic Party Chair Jay Jacobs said that he was “happy” to see D’Esposito and LaLota standing side by side with Trump because it shows that they are not truly the moderates they pitch themselves to be. “They stand for what he stands for, they own the crazy things he says,” Jacobs said.

One such “crazy thing” is the debunked racist conspiracy theory about Haitian immigrants eating pets in Springfield, Ohio, that Trump broadcast nationally during his debate with Harris. Assembly Member Michaelle Solages, one of a handful of Haitian American elected officials in New York, said Trump’s vilification of her community will “galvanize” voters to turn out. “This is about saving our democracy,” Solages said. “This is not a game. Donald Trump, you’re not welcome here on Long Island.” Neither D’Esposito nor LaLota explicitly amplified the conspiracy theory, but they also did not explicitly call out Trump or his other allies who spread the harmful disinformation.

Former Gov. David Paterson, who attended the counterrally on Long Island, admitted that Democrats didn’t put their best foot forward in New York when they lost the House in 2022. “It definitely feels better than it did two years ago,” Paterson told City & State. “I don’t think we were as prepared, but Gov. Hochul has personally taken on that challenge.” Despite her flagging approval ratings, the governor has worked to get the state’s latent Democratic Party apparatus up and running in support of swing district congressional candidates with a coordinated campaign largely funded with money she raised. “An incident like this, where the president comes, focuses everyone’s attention on Long Island for a couple of days – I think that works to our advantage,” Paterson added. Jacobs half-joked that he hopes Trump spends more time in New York, instead of campaigning in swing states that he actually has a shot of winning. “I’d rather he spend all of his time here in Nassau County,” he said, expressing confidence that his presence won’t help down-ballot Republicans in the area.

Democrats have good reason to head into November feeling better than they did in 2022. In February, Suozzi defeated Republican Mazi Melesa Pilip, a Nassau County legislator, in a special congressional election. Pilip ran strongly as a supporter of Trump, with D’Esposito and LaLota acting as consistent campaign surrogates for the relative political newcomer. Still, Suozzi won by a comfortable margin, giving Democrats their first solid glimmer of hope after losing the House.

But even as Democrats took both lessons and confidence from the special election, not every aspect of the one-off, nationally watched race is easily transferable to the other battleground races. And Republicans basically chalked up the loss to a fluke or a mistake by the normally powerful Nassau County Republican Party. “That was just a poor choice of candidate selection,” Giunta said candidly. “And, you know, I think that if you talk to anybody from Nassau County, they will probably tell you the same at this point.” Ra, a Nassau County Republican, also downplayed the significance of the loss. “A general election in a presidential year is a whole ’nother animal,” he said.

The Democratic candidates challenging LaLota and D’Esposito are confident that tying their opponents to Trump is a winning strategy. Avlon pointed out that Trump saw a significant drop in support in Suffolk County between 2016 and 2020, winning the county by just a few hundred votes the second time around. “There are a lot of good people who’ve been duped by Donald Trump, but I think a lot of folks have awakened to that fact,” Avlon told City & State. Despite his opposition to Trump, he expressed his support for reaching across the aisle to Republicans – “I’m married to a Republican!” – and said that he’s had success finding common ground with voters on the right, despite party affiliation.

Prior to the Trump rally, Gillen accused D’Esposito of prioritizing his relationship with the former president over his work in Congress, since he had to miss a budget vote in the House in order to attend the event. In a statement, she said he decided “to play second fiddle to Donald Trump at a campaign rally,” and chose to “(take) the night off to appease his extreme party leadership.” In a fundraising email sent before the rally, Gillen wrote that Trump’s visit was meant to “bail out” D’Esposito.

But if Democrats are trying to make the first-term Republicans feel ashamed of their support for Trump, it doesn’t seem to be working. “Just earlier today, the state Democratic chairman stood across the street and said, ‘The people in this building stand for what Donald Trump believes in,’” D’Esposito said at the September rally. “You’re damn right.”