Who will be New York City’s next mayor? It just got a lot more complicated.

Despite the growing number of candidates who were already lining up to challenge him, Mayor Eric Adams carried certain advantages as an incumbent running for reelection. But as of last week, when a five-count criminal indictment outlining corruption charges against Adams was unsealed, any presumptions about who will be the city’s next mayor have been thrown out the window.

An already sizable list of challengers for 2025 has only grown, with former Gov. Andrew Cuomo still eyeing a comeback, and manifold new contenders like former Assembly Member Michael Blake considering a possible run. Now, with Adams’ political future up in the air, the calculus for his would-be challengers could change too. 

Here’s how some of the different scenarios could, hypothetically, play out.

Scenario 1: Adams is removed or resigns in time for a special election

Major factors: Nonpartisan election, you’ve got 80 days to run a campaign, it would basically be a free-for-all

Gov. Kathy Hochul has not yet said whether she will remove Adams, and Adams, who maintains his innocence of charges against him, has said that he won’t resign – he’ll “reign,” in fact. There’s not yet been significant movement on a city-level “inability committee,” which could also remove Adams from office. But there is a democratic process that would take place in the event that Adams were to leave office before his term is up. If Adams either resigns or is removed from office, Public Advocate Jumaane Williams, a progressive Democrat, would become acting mayor. If that happens before January 2025, a special election would have to be held within 80 days, bumping up by at least a few months the timeline for challengers who have already been planning to take the mayor on in the regular June primary. Their own path could be complicated by new entrants vying for mayor. 

Williams himself, who would already be serving as acting mayor, would be a likely contender, as City & State previously reported. Following reports that Attorney General Letitia James has been approached about running in a special election, James told the Post this week that she doesn’t “believe in speculation.” Gov. Andrew Cuomo, who has had more time on his lands lately, has long been eyeing the race, particularly if he doesn’t have to challenge Adams to run. 

Current candidates for 2025 include former Comptroller Scott Stringer, current Comptroller Brad Lander, and state Sens. Jessica Ramos and Zellnor Myrie. Stringer, Ramos and Myrie all plan to stay in the race under all scenarios. “Jessica was running before the mayor’s indictment, and she’ll be running after the mayor’s indictment, because while the mayor is the current face of the problem, this is a systemic issue,” Ryan Adams, a consultant working on Ramos’ campaign, told City & State. Cuomo’s entrance into a special election wouldn’t change that, he said. 

Progressives fearing a major opening for Cuomo might see an upside in a James candidacy to take on the former governor – which she herself has yet to express interest in. “If you’re looking for his kryptonite, it’s got to be someone who can raise money, has high name recognition and would also, by their nature, bring up the worst things about his governorship,” one labor source said of Cuomo. “And Tish checks every single one of those boxes.”

The special election candidacy of a progressive like Williams may complicate the paths for other progressives who were already planning to run in the 2025 Democratic primary. 

Asked about whether Williams or James entering the race would change his plans, Lander declined to get into hypotheticals. “Obviously Jumaane and I are very close and we talk a lot. There are a lot of scenarios at the moment, and I’m not going to guess at which one is more likely,” he told City & State, adding, “I love Tish James.” (Not to open this whole can of worms, but if Lander decided not to run for mayor and ran for reelection instead, that would reverberate through several down-ballot races.)

It’s unclear how Assembly Member Zohran Mamdani, a democratic socialist who was already considering running for mayor, would approach a special election.

Other new contenders in a special election would likely include Republican Council Member Joe Borelli, who sees the nonpartisan special election as a rare opening for the GOP, though he would be unlikely to run in a general election otherwise. Former Assembly Member Michael Blake is also seriously considering a run for mayor. (For what it’s worth, former mayoral candidates Christine Quinn and Maya Wiley have been tweeting.)

The outcome of a special election could also shift or narrow the field of candidates who would subsequently vie for a full term in the June primary. If Williams or another progressive were to win, other progressives in the race may not choose to challenge them. 

Scenario 2: Adams is removed or resigns in 2025, not in time for a special election

Major factors: Jumaane Williams, currently popular progressive, is a more entrenched incumbent mayor

If Adams resigns or is removed from office after the new year, Williams would become acting mayor and would serve in that role to finish out the remainder of Adams’ term. In that scenario, the June 2025 Democratic primary would proceed as the next scheduled election, with the absence of Adams himself running. In this scenario, Williams will have served as acting mayor for a longer period of time, giving him a quasi incumbency power. 

With Adams out of the picture in this scenario too, Cuomo is still considered likely to jump in. Officially, Cuomo has not confirmed interest in running. “Governor Cuomo has spent a lifetime in public service fighting and delivering for the people of New York and will do whatever he can to help – that said, the speculation is premature as Governor Cuomo believes Mayor Adams is entitled to due process,” Cuomo spokesperson Rich Azzopardi said in a statement last week.

Those who were already planning to run in 2025 would face the same questions of whether to coalesce around Williams, should he run in the primary. Most progressive candidates would have a harder time making the case that they should run against him if Williams is in office for several months – rather than just 80 days like in Scenario 1.

Scenario 3: Adams stays in office but does not run for reelection

Major factors: There’s no incumbent in the race. Existing and new challengers to the mayor have no clear target at whom to aim their ire.

If Adams remains in office through the end of his term but declines to run for reelection – potentially seeing the loss of key supporters and a diminished incumbency advantage – his current field of challengers would find themselves looking for a new campaign focus. Stringer, Myrie, Lander and Ramos’ campaign launches have all focused, to some extent, on a need for change from the current administration. 

A potential “don’t rank Adams” message from progressive institutions would also have to be reworked. And without Adams, the field could yet see new entrants.

Scenario 4: Adams stays in office and continues to run for reelection

Major factors: A weakened incumbent plays defense against challengers who have new ammunition. Adams fights to retain labor and other major backers.

The 2025 Democratic primary is still nine months away, but it’s safe to assume that if Adams remains in office and continues his bid for reelection, his current challengers will target him with the allegations of corruption detailed in federal prosecutors’ indictment. It’s still unclear how much of a hit Adams’ campaign will take in fundraising or among key institutional supporters like labor unions because of the indictment.

Whether Cuomo would get into a race in which Adams is still running remains an open question.

Adams’ supporters gathered at a rally outside City Hall on Tuesday night, where chants of “four more years” rang out.