Siena poll shows suburbs leaning toward Harris and Democrats

The suburban areas of New York are certainly redder than New York City, but they may not be quite as conservative as Republicans hope, The latest state poll from Siena College, released Tuesday morning, found that Vice President Kamala Harris has widened her lead in New York thanks in part to a shift toward Democrats in the suburbs and upstate. The poll also showed widespread support for the Equal Rights Amendment ballot proposal and a slight edge for Democratic congressional candidates, which could help Democrats recapture control of the House of Representatives.

The poll of more more than 850 likely New York state voters was conducted between Oct. 13 and Oct. 17 and included questions about the presidential election, immigration policies and ballot propositions, among other things.

The poll found that in a head-to-head matchup, 58% of respondents preferred Harris, while 39% preferred Trump. That’s a shift toward Harris of 6 points compared to last month, when Siena College found that 55% of New Yorkers supported Harris and 42% supported Trump.

Although New York is traditionally not a presidential swing state, Trump is preparing his third visit to the Empire State of the cycle on Oct. 27 with a rally at Madison Square Garden. Just last month, he held a rally on Long Island. Trump insists that New York is in play, but local Democrats are welcoming him to spend as much time campaigning in the Big Apple if it splits his attention away from the likes of Pennsylvania and Michigan.

Harris’ odds also appear to have improved upstate and in the suburbs outside New York City, where both parties are duking it out to win a handful of battleground congressional seats that could spell control of the House. In last month’s poll, suburban voters supported Trump over Harris 50%-48% and upstate voters supported Trump over Harris 50%-45%. Those margins have now flipped. In the suburbs, respondents now prefer Harris over Trump 52%-47% and upstate, respondents now support Harris over Trump 49%-46%.  

There’s a risk that third-party candidates could cut into Harris’ margins, though. When third-party candidates were included, a surprising 4% of suburban voters expressed a preference for Cornel West, a third-party candidate who will not be on the ballot, and Harris’ lead over Trump in the suburbs shrank from 5 points to 3 points.

In more positive news for Democrats just days before the start of early voting, a majority of respondents across the state said they would vote for a Democratic congressional candidate over a Republican one. In particular, suburban voters preferred a Democrat by a margin of 49%-44%, and upstate voters by 45%-43%. That’s another change from last month’s poll, which found that suburban and upstate voters narrowly preferred the Republican congressional candidate over the Democratic one. Six seats are in play in New York City’s suburbs on Long Island and the Hudson Valley, and a seventh in Central New York.

One area where city voters differ from upstate and suburban voters is immigration policy, with 62% of city voters trusting Harris more on immigration issues and 52% of suburban and upstate voters trusting Trump more.

Democrats have repeatedly stressed the importance of this year’s election, with the top of the ticket often claiming that “democracy is on the ballot.” Republicans have also stressed the importance of this election, but for different reasons. Respondents on both sides of the aisle seem to agree that the election matters, with more than 75% of likely voters in all regions agreeing that democracy is at stake in the upcoming election.

Beyond the presidential race, the poll showed that an overwhelming majority of voters support the Equal Rights Amendment, which would enshrine abortion rights and protections against discrimination into the state constitution. Republican candidates have railed against the Equal Rights Amendment, calling it a covert attempt to expand protections for trans children, but Democratic elected officials’ strong advocacy for the Equal Rights Amendment seems to be making a difference. The poll found that 69% of likely voters in the suburbs supported the amendment. That’s an increase from last month, when just 57% of suburban voters expressed support for it.

Gov. Kathy Hochul remains unpopular, with just over half of likely voters across the state disapproving of her performance. Most poll respondents said that they believe that both the state and the country are headed in the wrong direction. But on the bright side, a majority of respondents also said that they remain optimistic about the future.