Hochul predicts Dems will flip at least three House seats

Gov. Kathy Hochul said on Wednesday that Democrats will flip at least three House seats in New York – a subtle acknowledgement that the party is unlikely to flip at least some of the GOP-held swing seats that Democrats’ coordinated campaign is currently targeting. The governor spoke to reporters about the House races following a lead pipe replacement event in Poughkeepsie with local elected officials like Poughkeepsie Mayor Yvonne Flowers, Rep. Pat Ryan and Assembly Member Jonathan Jacobson. 

“Minimum three, but make sure you put Tom Suozzi in my win column,” Hochul said, adding that she expected Democrats to win “more than you think” in next week’s election. Rep. Tom Suozzi was the first Democrat to flip a seat this cycle, beating Republican nominee Mazi Pilip in a special election for the 3rd Congressional District in February. Democrats are hoping to repeat the feat in neighboring districts on Long Island and as far north as Syracuse. 

A year ago, Hochul said that Democrats would pick up five seats in the House during the 2024 cycle. This year, the coordinated campaign that Hochul has helped lead this year has been targeting five vulnerable GOP incumbents: Rep. Nick LaLota in the 1st Congressional District, Rep. Anthony D’Esposito in the 4th Congressional District, Rep. Mike Lawler in the 17th Congressional District, Rep. Marc Molinaro in the 19th Congressional District and Rep. Brandon Williams in the 22nd Congressional District.

Hochul was mum on exactly which three districts she believed were still flippable, but polling and the partisan lean of the districts suggest the party's best bets to grow its ranks are Laura Gillen in the 4th Congressional District, Josh Riley in the 19th Congressional District and state Sen. John Mannion in the 22nd Congressional District. Recent polls show former CNN anchor John Avlon trailing LaLota in the 1st Congressional District and former Rep. Mondaire Jones trailing Lawler in the 17th Congressional District.

In addition to flipping districts, Democrats are looking to protect Suozzi in the 3rd Congressional District and Ryan in the 18th Congressional District. Both Suozzi and Ryan look likely to keep their seats; even some Republicans have written off GOP challenger Alison Esposito’s chances of defeating Ryan, and Suozzi is running well ahead of his own challenger.

In an interview with City & State, Rep. Nydia Velázquez said that she expected Democrats to defeat D’Esposito, Lawler and Williams. “I have been working with Laura Gillen in the 4th Congressional District, and yeah, she is doing an incredible job,” she said. “Some other members have been going there. Lawler’s district – I think we have a good possibility there. Williams’ district, we’re going to win there. So look, I feel like between three to five congressional seats is a possibility. In order to win the House, we’ve got to win here in New York.”

Much has been made of the effect this year’s elections could have on Hochul’s political legacy, in light of Democrats’ failures during the 2022 cycle. This year, former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi disparaged Hochul’s electoral prowess and Jones implied that she was a weak leader. Her reputation as a political force isn’t the strongest, and neither are her favorability numbers. 

But given Hochul’s leading role in the coordinated campaign, Democratic success in New York swing districts could serve to change the narrative following the election. Her campaign apparatus has reported knocking on 939,000 doors, calling 3.8 million voters, making more than 4.5 million voter contacts and amassing 20,000 volunteers this cycle. She and Democratic leaders like U.S. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries have expressed confidence in the party’s prospects this year and a willingness to get involved in races across the state – and in Hochul’s case, even outside of it. 

The governor said on Wednesday that she is not fazed by the level of interest Republicans are showing on New York. Former President Donald Trump’s controversial Madison Square Garden rally and House Speaker Mike Johnson’s suburban campaign stops punctuating the campaign’s final stretch. 

“New York is a fabulous state, I'm not surprised he was interested or that anybody was. But this is not a battleground, up for grabs area, so every minute that they're spending here in the Hudson Valley or in Manhattan is time that they're not spending in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan or Georgia,” Hochul said. “So we say, if that's where you want to spend your time, you are welcome to do that, but I don't think it's going to have a single impact on a voter in a swing state. New York, it does not make a difference. We are going to be Harris/Walz country, without fail.”