Gillibrand still sees abortion as winning issue for Democrats

U.S. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand thinks that abortion is a winning issue for Democrats and the party is on track to keep or flip House seats across the state. Along with House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and Gov. Kathy Hochul, Gillibrand is helping to lead a campaign to ensure that Democrats avoid a repeat of the 2022 cycle, when Republicans swept key swing districts in New York.

“I've been part of working with the candidates to create a coordinated campaign with our governor and with Hakeem Jeffries, and we've been organizing on the ground,” Gillibrand told City & State last week. “We have 37 offices. We've made over two and a half million phone calls. We have knocked on over 700,000 doors. We have organizers in every one of the 16 college campuses in the five battleground districts. We've done Black, Latino and AAPI-directed outreach. And so our goal is just get the vote out, make sure people know how important this election is and make sure people vote.”

Hochul, who has provided the bulk of the coordinated campaign’s funding, is also bullish about its chances. “New York’s coordinated campaign has reached more voters in New York’s battleground districts than ever before, driving turnout for Democrats up and down the ballot, and paving the path to flip the House majority in November,” the governor said in a statement. 

This year, Democrats are hoping to increase turnout by putting Proposition 1 on the ballot, which would enshrine the Equal Rights Amendment into the constitution. Democrats have pitched the ERA as a way to further codify reproductive rights, since it would protect against discrimination based on pregnancy outcomes. But conservatives have seized on the amendment’s vague anti-discrimination language to claim that the amendment would curtail parents’ rights and open the door to noncitizen voting. With conservative billionaires now spending millions to mobilize Republican voters against the ERA, there’s a risk that Democrats’ turnout strategy could backfire.

“We are getting calls at our headquarters from Republicans and independents who frankly feel completely blindsided by this, and I think it's actually energizing our base,” said Benji Federman, chair of the Broome County Republican Committee. “It was supposed to be a Democrat ploy to turn out their base, but I think it's backfiring.”

While abortion rights measures have helped spur Democratic turnout in other states, that historically has not been the case in New York – a state that already has very strong abortion protections. State polls have found that New Yorkers care more about public safety and the cost of living than abortion rights.

Still, Gillibrand is confident that the Democratic Party’s focus on abortion rights will pay off on Election Day. “I think it's an issue people care deeply about,” she said, adding that she hopes a Congress will eventually approve a federal version of the Equal Rights Amendment that could protect women in Republican-controlled states.

The latest polls show Democrats trending well in battleground districts, Laura Gillen in particular has a 12 point lead over Rep. Anthony D’Esposito in the 4th Congressional District and Josh Riley leads Rep. Marc Molinaro by 4 points in the 19th Congressional District. Riley’s new polls come with the caveat that he had a slightly larger lead in 2022 before narrowly losing to Molinaro. 

If the Democrats do win back the House, Gillibrand is hopeful that Congress will finally be able to pass a bipartisan immigration bill – which could help Democrats push back on GOP attacks on immigration policy. “Those reforms would have helped us, and getting the House back is essential to getting that work done,” she said.