The future of wind power relies in part on who wins the presidency

Off the coast of Long Island, a massive new project called Empire Wind 1 is set to change the way New York gets its electricity. Imagine 54 giant wind turbines, each almost the height of the Chrysler Building, being installed in the ocean, about 15 to 30 miles southeast of Long Beach, Long Island.  Once the project is complete, these towering turbines will punctuate the view from shore on clear days, where now the view is just open sea and the occasional fishing boat drifting across the horizon. The energy produced by these turbines will be clean and renewable, generating electricity to power more than 500,000 homes.

Empire Wind 1 is one piece in a much larger project to try to shift New York away from its reliance on fossil fuels such as coal, gas and oil and move toward more sustainable energy sources. But installing offshore wind turbines, in New York and around the country, has hit logistical snags and controversy. Some locals worry that turbines disrupt ocean views, while others voice fears that electromagnetic frequencies from underwater cables could pose health risks. In addition, the future of wind power in New York depends on the upcoming presidential election, because both candidates hold sharply different positions. While Vice President Kamala Harris, as part of the Biden administration, has helped advance wind projects with financial incentives and streamlined regulations, former president Donald Trump has criticized wind turbines, calling them "expensive" and "unreliable.” 

The Biden-Harris administration set a nationalgoal in 2021 to produce 30 gigawatts of offshore wind energy by 2030.  In addition, the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act championed by the Biden-Harris administration represents the largest-ever federal investment in clean energy and provides substantial tax credits for wind energy developers and manufacturers. The Biden administration also created the Federal-State Offshore Wind Implementation Partnership, launched in 2022, which brings together 11 East Coast states to coordinate supply chains and workforce training for the growing offshore wind industry, further boosting the sector's development​.

“A Harris administration would keep the country on the path toward almost meeting the 2030 goal,” said Matthew Eisenson, a senior fellow at the Sabin Center for Climate Change Law.

During Trump’s presidency, his opposition to offshore wind energy projects came in the form of delays in the permitting process and regulatory rollbacks, while opening federal lands for oil and gas drilling. For example, the Vineyard Wind project, one of the early large-scale offshore wind initiatives, was delayed for over a year under Trump’s directive for an extended environmental review. In addition, trump’s administration actively reversed Obama era climate policies and withdrew from the Paris Climate Agreement in 2017. Trump has continued to voice opposition to wind energy in his 2024 campaign, publicly vowing at a rally in Wildwood, New Jersey, to stop offshore wind projects if reelected. "I’m going to write it out in an executive order. It’s going to end on day one," he declared. His current platform strongly favors traditional energy sources like oil and natural gas. According to Eisenson, a second Trump term could "seriously slow down permitting" if heads of key federal agencies are hostile to offshore wind development. In contrast, under the Biden-Harris administration, the U.S. is expanding clean energy while maintaining its position as the world's largest producer of fossil fuels.

Politics aside, construction of wind power projects has lagged in recent years because of supply chain disruptions and economic uncertainties, largely due to the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic. "The cost of materials and construction has gone up precipitously," said Michael Williams, a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress, making wind projects more expensive than initially expected. 

In addition, Empire Wind 1 faces pushback from local residents and the fishing industry. If a hostile presidential administration creates more delays, that could seriously compromise critical emissions reduction goals that seek to contain global warming to 2 degrees Centigrade. As Johanna Neumann, senior director at Environment America, puts it, “The sooner we tap our offshore wind potential, the better it’s going to be for our environment and our health.” 

Offshore wind power, which generates electricity without emitting harmful greenhouse gasses, is a key part, not only of the federal, but also New York state’s ambitious climate change goals, strongly supported by Gov. Kathy Hochul, which include getting 70% of New York’s electricity from renewable sources and power up to 6 million houses by 2030. The concept is pretty simple: turbines generate electricity by using wind to turn large blades, which spin a rotor connected to a generator. This converts the wind’s energy into electrical power, which is sent to shore through underwater cables and added to the power grid.

Wind energy currently makes up about 3.6% of New York state's electricity, with most of it coming from land-based wind farms, as large scale offshore projects are still in the early stages.  New York’s total installed wind capacity, including both land-based and offshore projects - currently stands at just over 2200 megawatts and is expected to grow to 2500 megawatts as more projects become operational. Using standard estimates, where 1 megawatt of capacity powers about 750 homes annually - this capacity can provide electricity to roughly 1,8 million homes statewide.. In addition to Empire Wind 1, several other major offshore wind projects are now proposed off the coast of Long Island and near New York City, including Empire Wind  2, Sunrise Wind, and the recently operational South Fork Wind. Together, these projects are expected to add enough clean energy to power around 430,000 homes, according to the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority. New York’s long-term goal, according to the Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act, is to develop 9000 megawatt of offshore wind capacity by 2035. When fully realized, this capacity could power up to 6 million homes.

Adrienne Esposito, executive director of the Citizens Campaign for the Environment, points out that climate change is already affecting New York and sees projects like Empire Wind 1 as crucial for a safer future. Rising sea levels and stronger storms pose a serious threat to coastal areas like Long Island, while windpower can also reduce air pollution in cities like New York, which suffer from high rates of asthma and heart disease linked to dirty air. "We’re on ground zero for climate change," Esposito said.

But many residents who value their ocean views argue that the turbines would be an unwelcome visual intrusion and could deflate home values. Christina Kramer, a Long Beach homeowner, founded environmental conservation organization Protect Our Coast after receiving a letter in early 2023 informing her that as part of the Empire Wind 1 project, high-voltage cables would be installed just outside her home. "If I walk out my door, literally 20 steps into the street, that's where they want to dig up the street," she explained.

Kramer has voiced frustration over what she perceives as a lack of transparency from the project’s developer, Equinor, based in Norway and with a New York project office in Brooklyn . "I felt like they were lying to me," she said, after discovering that the voltage levels were significantly higher than initially disclosed. She believes the community was not properly informed about the potential risks, including the long-term health effects of living near such high-voltage cables. "They have no proof that it's safe, but they're willing to put it in our streets and find out maybe 20 years from now that it's not safe," she added. Equinor did not respond to multiple requests for comment.Dr. Henry Lai, professor emeritus at the University of Washington and a specialist in electromagnetic fields, states that high-voltage cables generate magnetic fields, which could pose health risks, especially over time. “The safe distance depends on the level of electric current carried by the cable,” he said. Lai also noted that magnetic fields are difficult to shield, making distance the most effective strategy to reduce exposure.

A 2022 study by Christian Brabant et al. recommends that children should ideally live at least 200 meters (656 feet) away from power lines to reduce the risk of developing conditions such as childhood leukemia.

Kramer’s group has had some success in delaying the project through legal action and by helping elect a Long Beach city council that refused to allow the high-voltage cables to be installed in their community, forcing the developers to reconsider their route. 

Another group fighting Empire Wind 1 is the fishing community which worries about potential harm to fish and other marine life, including whales and other sea creatures that could be disturbed by the noise and vibration caused during construction and operation.

"They’re taking a 4,500-kilojoule hammer and slamming it into the monopole to pile drive it into the ocean floor. That kind of sound can disorient or even kill marine animals," said Bonnie Brady, executive director of the Long Island Commercial Fishing Association. "Turbines are 1,035 feet tall from the water line, that includes the approximate 200 feet down into the ocean floor they must be hammered. Remember, things live there" 

But marine scientists counter that there is no conclusive evidence offshore wind farms harm fish or marine mammals. 

"We have zero evidence for any marine mammal deaths related to anything involving wind farms," said Robert D. Kenney, emeritus marine research scientist at the Graduate School of Oceanography of the University of Rhode Island. He notes that necropsies of beached whales show the main causes of death are entanglement in fishing gear or being struck by boats, he added, not offshore wind activities. Kenney acknowledged that pile driving noise – the loudest part of wind farm construction – could temporarily disturb marine animals, causing them to relocate. While some fish may benefit from the “reef effect,” as seen at the Block Island Wind Farm, the first commercial offshore wind farm in the U.S., where mussel growth on turbine foundations attracts certain species - the long-term ecological impact is harder to determine. Kenney emphasizes that this is due to multiple factors, such as overfishing, climate change and “possibly the creation of fish refuges where trawlers can't get them,” adding that domestic wind farms are too new to provide enough data.

Wind power advocates say that threats by Trump to cancel unspent funds from the Inflation Reduction Act would not impact wind projects because the law offers tax credits that can only be revoked by an act of Congress. “They would actually have to undo those tax credits,” Neumann said. 

A Trump administration could also delay offshore wind development by “spreading disinformation” such as such as falsely claiming that wind farms harm marine mammals or promoting general misinformation to confuse the public and erode support for clean energy, Neumann said, but added that in the absence of federal support, “states like Massachusetts, New York, New Jersey, and California will keep trying to figure out how to tap this immense energy source.” 

Offshore wind is essential for America’s transition to renewable energy, Neumann added, especially along the Eastern Seaboard, where wind resources are abundant. "The sooner we tap our offshore wind potential, the better it's going to be for our environment and our health.”