Apparent Cuomo poll tests the water for mayoral, gubernatorial runs

A new poll sent to voters in New York City appears to be seriously testing the waters for a potential mayoral run by former Gov. Andrew Cuomo and could provide some insight into the former governor’s current thinking about his political future in the wake of Mayor Eric Adams’ federal indictment.

Screenshots shared with City & State on Oct. 1 revealed a Cuomo-heavy poll gauging opinions on the former governor, and testing how he would fare in hypothetical matchups among candidates for mayor and for governor. Two pollsters who did not conduct the survey reviewed the questions for City & State and concluded that the poll must have been performed on behalf of the former governor. “There is no other possible candidate who would commission this poll,” one of the pollsters said, while the other said it was “extraordinarily unlikely” that anyone else would pay for a poll examining Cuomo’s opportunities and liabilities so intently.

Cuomo’s spokesperson Rich Azzopardi would not comment on whether the former governor had commissioned the poll. Campaign finance records show that Cuomo paid Expedition Strategies nearly $70,000 for polling costs in January. Screenshots from a poll in November 2023 that was apparently from Cuomo also bear similarities to the new poll shared with City & State. Expedition Strategies did not return an email or phone call requesting comment on whether they had performed the new poll.

Hypothetical matchups

The survey asked respondents who they would vote for in two potential mayoral elections, one apparently based on a regular Democratic primary election next year and the other essentially mocking up a potential special election if Adams were to resign or be removed. 

The first matchup included Cuomo, Adams, city Comptroller Brad Lander, former city Comptroller Scott Stringer and state Sens. Jessica Ramos and Zellnor Myrie. With the exception of Cuomo, that list included every candidate who has already announced their intention to run for mayor next year. The second matchup included most of the same names but excludes Adams and adds in state Attorney General Letitia James, city Public Advocate Jumaane Williams, state Sen. John Liu and former City Council Speaker Christine Quinn.

Although Adams has repeatedly denied that he will resign, speculation has abounded in the past week about who would potentially run in a special election if Adams is removed from office. As City & State previously reported, Williams is expected to run in a special election in the event of Adams’ early exit. Sources told City & State that Gov. Kathy Hochul recently met with Williams. One source with knowledge of Williams’ thinking said he had “a productive dialogue with the governor on making sure city government works for New Yorkers. Sources also said that labor officials are talking to James about running in a potential special election.

Both Liu and Quinn have run for mayor in the past. One labor source told City & State that Quinn has been talking to people in her orbit and seriously weighing running in a potential special election if Adams resigns. Politico New York reported back in July she was considering it then too, and she did not rule out a special election run during a recent interview with the Max Politics podcast.

Although the poll focused heavily on mayoral prospects, it actually began with questions about a potential race for governor. The survey posed three hypothetical matchups for the 2026 gubernatorial primary: a three-way race between Hochul, Cuomo and James; a two-way race between Hochul and Cuomo; and a different two-way race between Cuomo and James. City & State previously reported that Cuomo told former Gov. David Paterson that he would rather be governor again than run for mayor, though he would settle for mayor.

On Friday, not long after the apparent Cuomo poll went out to voters, Marist College released new polling on New York City that included a question about whether Cuomo should run for mayor. It found that 55% of New York City residents do not want him to run, while 44% do. Although the overall numbers are not the most encouraging for the former governor as he weighs his options, the poll suggests that Cuomo still retains support in Black and Latino communities and among lower-income New Yorkers. The former governor has spent time recently visiting Black churches in the outer boroughs, appealing to the working-class Black voters whose support would be essential for a mayoral run. 

The Marist poll found that 63% of white New Yorkers do not want Cuomo to run for mayor, but 54% of Black New Yorkers and 51% of Latino New Yorkers do. Additionally, 52% of New Yorkers who make under $50,000 a year support the idea of him running.

Cuomo-centric questions

In addition to testing hypothetical election matchups, the poll asked a series of questions specifically about Cuomo. (“This survey only has time to focus on one of the potential candidates for Mayor,” the poll advised respondents. “Next you will see some questions about Andrew Cuomo.”) The poll assessed voters’ opinions on his past scandals – including his acceptance of a $5 million advance to write a book (with the assistance of his aides) about his pandemic response while it was still ongoing, his handling of COVID in nursing homes, allegations of sexual harassment (which he has denied) and having a poor working relationship with leadership in the state Legislature – along with potential defenses of his behavior.

The section about sexual harassment mentioned the report from James’ office concluding that he had harassed at least 11 women and the fact that two women still have pending lawsuits against him (there are in fact lawsuits brought by three women), but also said that “nine of the charges were dropped” and that five district attorneys reviewed the report and “found no charges.” Both are arguably mischaracterizations of what happened. Sexual harassment is a civil offense, not a criminal offense, and there were never 11 charges brought against Cuomo. In the instances concerning potential criminal conduct, prosecutors said they found the allegations credible even as they ultimately declined to bring criminal charges.

In the section about his relationship with the Legislature, it said that “supporters point out that New York City is being taken advantage of and a strong Mayor who knows how to get things done in Albany will restore some balance.” Cuomo generally pitches himself as a “pragmatic progressive” who is capable of finding middle ground. In the question about his handling of COVID in nursing home, it said that “supporters point out that that false attacks are coming from Republicans” before reiterating the defense Cuomo has consistently given – most recently at a congressional hearing on the topic – that overall, New York had fewer nursing home deaths than other states.

After each section, the poll asked whether the information presented made the survey taker more or less likely to vote for Cuomo for future office. “What concerns you the most about what you just heard about Andrew Cuomo?” the poll asked at the end of that section, listing off a short summary of each criticism previously laid out in detail.

In one telling question, the poll asked voters who they would rather have as mayor of New York City: “someone who has a proven record of getting big things accomplished in government” or “someone who advocates for major progressive social change and equity.” It sounded a lot like the dichotomy Cuomo has made in recent addresses as he leans heavily on his track record, in opposition to what he might consider virtue signaling. 

“FDR made progress – he got things done: Triboro bridge, Lincoln tunnel, FDR Drive, new schools, libraries, health clinics, new parks,” Cuomo told parishioners at a Brooklyn church on a recent Sunday. “I am a proud FDR, get it done, make a difference, progressive.” He then launched into a series of his biggest hits: LaGuardia airport renovations, the Second Ave. subway line, increasing the minimum wage. “All to improve your life,” he said, before taking aim at the left wing of his party. “But for all of today’s political talk about being so-called progressives, there is no true progress, and, in fact, we are going backwards.”

The poll also asked respondents whether they agreed or disagreed with the following phrases being applied to the former governor: “is the type of strong, proven executive New York City needs right now” and “is a bully.”