Poll: New Yorkers view Trump more favorably than Hochul

Gov. Kathy Hochul has once again hit new polling lows in the latest Siena College poll, with likely voters in New York now viewing her even less favorably than former President Donald Trump.

According to the new numbers, just 34% of the New York voters surveyed viewed Hochul favorably, while 54% viewed her poorly. That’s down from 39%-50% from the last poll in August. It also puts her numbers lower than the former Republican president, who held a rare campaign rally in New York last night. The poll found that 39% of New Yorkers have a positive view of Trump, although a higher percentage view him unfavorably – 57% – compared to Hochul. Still, that places Hochul’s net favorability lower than that of the former Republican president.

Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg, who said Hochul’s favorability “has never been outstanding,” emphasized the significance of the numbers. “It is also worth noting that Hochul’s favorability rating, 20 points under water, is worse than Trump’s, 18 points under water,” Greenberg said in a statement. “To repeat, Kathy Hochul has a lower net favorability rating in New York than Donald Trump.” He also pointed out that while the net favorability of every other person polled this month and last did not change more than a point or two, Hochul’s numbers fell by nine points.

The governor’s numbers are in the negatives across nearly every demographic, which could complicate her attempts to help win back the House for Democrats by flipping key battleground districts in New York. The New York Times has pointed out that candidates are happy to accept the support of a new statewide coordinated campaign that Hochul is leading, but are not quick to campaign on her name. Among Democrats, only liberals and Black voters view Hochul more favorably than unfavorably. Hochul’s favorability plummets among independents and young voters between the ages of 18 and 24, with only 18% of independents and 24% of young voters viewing her favorably. 

Hochul’s job approval ratings are similarly at record lows, continuing a downward trend that has persisted nearly uninterrupted for months. Just 39% of New Yorkers polled think the governor is doing a good job in the position, while 56% say she’s doing a poor job. This is despite previous polling showing that New Yorkers approve of many of the governor’s recent policy positions, like her decision to pause congestion pricing.

The new poll also found that voters strongly support the state-level Equal Rights Amendment, which will be on the ballot in November. Siena found that 64% of likely voters in New York back the measure that would enshrine abortion rights, LGBTQ protections and other civil rights protections into the state constitution. That includes 89% of Democrats and 97% of self-described liberals. 

However, the measure’s support among independents has dropped significantly since August, a possible result of the conservative campaign against the referendum that internal polling by supporters found to be effective. Although a plurality of independents still back it at 49%, that’s much lower than the strong majority of 64% of independents who supported the amendment last month. State Democratic Party leaders have told City & State that they’re planning a campaign of support to help supplement the work of organizers with the nonpartisan New Yorkers for Equal Rights coalition, but mentions of the ballot measure are still relatively rare on the campaign trail.

The poll found that voters in New York still back Vice President Kamala Harris over Trump by 13 percentage points in a head-to-head contest, with little change compared to last month. “Despite the Democratic convention, the debate and numerous other events during the six weeks between Siena College polls, there has been little movement in the horse race or in either candidate’s favorability rating,” Greenberg said. Since August, independents in the state have shifted significantly in favor of Trump, while support of Harris among Latinos has increased. But for Democrats, a 13 percentage point lead in a head-to-head race would still be the closest presidential race so far this century. President Joe Biden won New York by 23 points in 2020, and Democrats have won by at least 18 points in every presidential election since 2000. “New York remains solidly ‘blue’ but perhaps not as deep blue as it has been in the last several presidential cycles,” Greenberg said.