Democrats strategize a response to Republican attacks on ERA ballot proposal

Hoping not to be caught flat-footed again, and following criticism over its apparent hands-off approach to the ballot measure, state Democratic Party leaders are taking steps to raise awareness of a voter referendum meant to enshrine abortion rights in the state constitution. State party Chair Jay Jacobs organized a call with outside organizers late last month to discuss messaging for the measure, as well as to discuss some potentially troubling polling about the ballot proposal. He told City & State that the state party is planning some action before Election Day. 

A call to organize

On Aug. 27, the state Democratic Committee hosted a virtual call for committee members with organizers with New Yorkers for Equal Rights, a nonpartisan coalition focused on getting the state-level Equal Rights Amendment approved. The call came several months after the state organization’s annual meeting in May, when the ballot measure was barely mentioned as the party discussed strategies and campaigns in a crucial election year. At the time, Executive Committee Chair Christine Quinn said the party would set up a call with former Rep. Carolyn Maloney, who has championed the federal Equal Rights Amendment. 

The August call with Democratic organizers was closed to the press, but a recording of it was shared with City & State. “This is time to get in the game, get our hands dirty, talk to every single voter up and down the state about how important it is to vote yes on proposal one,” Sasha Ahuja, campaign director with New Yorkers for Equal Rights, said on the call. “This is our shared work, not the work of just one person or just one organization or just one coalition, but all of our work.”

During the call, which Jacobs told City & State that he set up, organizers with New Yorkers for Equal Rights discussed messaging best practices, as well as how to combat opposition that has largely focused on the non-abortion aspects of the amendment. The Equal Rights Amendment would enshrine protections based on gender identity, age and sexual orientation, and many opponents have shaped their arguments as “protecting girl’s sports” and protecting parents’ rights. Conservatives have claimed that the transgender protections would lead to boys forcing their way into female spaces, and that the anti-age discrimination measure could lead to minors receiving medical procedures like gender-affirming surgery without parental consent. The main group organizing against the amendment is the Coalition to Protect Kids, a nonpartisan organization whose campaign messaging is supported by the state Republican and Conservative Parties.

The August organizing call was welcomed by committee members who have been critical of the state party for not doing enough to campaign for the ballot measure. “I think it’s positive that (the) state committee had the meeting, and it was a substantive meeting,” Committee Member Danielle Brecker told City & State. “I don’t think the meeting would have happened if I hadn’t said something and other people and the press hadn’t backed me up.” At the organization’s annual May meeting, Brecker had questioned the lack of discussion around the amendment.

A spokesperson for New Yorkers for Equal Rights defended its decision to brief state Democrats despite the coalition’s nonpartisan nature. “We have built a strong, robust grassroots campaign to win this fight and mobilize voters across New York,” a coalition spokesperson said. “We will brief anyone who has the means to help ensure we have the resources to make sure New Yorkers know their rights are on the ballot in November and counter the expected attacks meant to divide and distract us.” 

By the numbers

Organizers also shared polling toplines with committee members on the call, the broad strokes of which were first reported by Politico New York. According to slides presented to the attendees on the call, 64% of voters in New York said they would definitely, likely or lean towards voting yes on the amendment when presented with ballot language initially approved by the state Board of Elections. That language does not include the word “abortion” or the term “LGBT,” despite calls from activists. The language has changed slightly compared to what was polled thanks to a lawsuit, but not in a significant way. Democrats had originally hoped that the referendum would help drive voters to the polls in swing districts and provide a bump similar to what has been seen in other states when abortion was on the ballot. 

According to one slide in the presentation, 61% of voters in battleground congressional districts said they would support the ballot measure as well. The polling performed by Global Strategy Group also found that support for the amendment slightly increases support for Democrats in generic matchups in swing districts. The data found that voters supported a generic Republican over a generic Democrat 49%-47% before positive messaging around the measure. After the messaging, a generic Democrat leads 50%-41%.

But the polling also found that conservative attacks against the measure are successful. A single attack focused on girls’ sports, transgender protections, age discrimination provisions and immigration dropped support for the amendment by a full 24 percentage points. “If we define this amendment on our terms, we can have a strongly positive persuasive impact in key House races,” one presentation slide read. “But if the other side defines it on their terms, Democratic candidates are in trouble.”

The polling group tested out messaging to combat the negative attacks on the measure, and while it did not completely make up all the ground lost, it did get support back into the positive. Voters polled who only heard the attack were more likely to vote against the amendment, with 48% opposing it and only 40% supporting it. After hearing the “soothing” messaging, 48% indicated they would vote for it, compared to 39% who said they still would not.

Getting the word out

Following the call, Jacobs told City & State that the state party is taking steps to communicate the messaging shared with committee members. “The Governor has made it clear that she wants a robust campaign in support of the ERA and, working with (state Senate Majority Leader) Andrea Stewart-Cousins, (state Senate Deputy Majority Leader) Mike Gianaris and (Assembly Speaker) Carl Heastie, the State Party is putting together a campaign that will include mail, lawn signs, digital and, likely, texting to supplement the efforts of the various groups currently supporting the ERA campaign,” he said. Jacobs did not have a dollar amount for the campaign yet and said the party is currently raising money for that purpose. 

As of July, the state party had just shy of $2 million in its coffers. Jacobs, Gov. Kathy Hochul, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and U.S. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand also recently launched a $5 million coordinated campaign to help get members of Congress elected in battleground areas. 

Messaging around the state-level Equal Rights Amendment, which is referred to as Proposition 1 on the ballot, has so far been largely absent in many Democratic campaigns. Consultants in swing areas have begun to raise alarm bells over the negative messaging from conservatives and lack of positive response by Democrats. Some fear a repeat of 2021, when several ballot measures pushed by Democrats failed amid strong and well-funded opposition from conservatives with little effort to promote them from Democratic Party leadership. 

“Whether a woman or a person who can give birth wants to give birth or have an abortion should not be a partisan issue, and it should simply not involve government at all,” said state Committee Member Brian Romero. “But with Republicans and conservatives trying to use the issue to divide us and erode the rights of everyday people, Democrats should unabashedly make the distinction between us and them.” Brecker, the committee member who previously raised concerns about the ERA to party leaders, said she hopes to see the state Democratic Party and local county parties really start spreading the word. “People don’t know about the ERA or that it’s on the ballot, but once we talk with them, they will vote yes,” she said based on her own canvassing experience. “This close, that really worries me.”

As Election Day draws nearer, though, that messaging may begin to pick up – at least if a rally for Vice President Kamala Harris held by Manhattan Borough President Mark Levine on Sunday is any indication. Between hyping up the crowd for Harris and encouraging Democrats to campaign in swing districts, Levine made a point to talk about the state constitutional amendment. “Proposition 1, which will enshrine our reproductive rights in the state constitution, is in a very tight race according to the polls,” Levine told gathered supporters. “Manhattan can and will deliver passage of Prop 1. We have more votes on this little island than all of Suffolk County, then all of Westchester County, then like 20 upstate counties combined.”