Can Eric Adams survive this?

In the not-too-distant past, a case of widespread corruption in New York City government helped prevent the city’s mayor from winning another term in office. 

More than 30 years later, as a whirlwind of federal investigations sweeps members of Mayor Eric Adams’ administration, some see echoes of Mayor Ed Koch’s third term, dogged by corruption scandals involving some of his top officials. Koch emerged without criminal liability, but his reputation took a beating, and the once popular mayor eventually failed to win a fourth term.

Former Gov. Andrew Cuomo, long rumored to be stalking City Hall's top job, is a better comparison – and potentially an instructive one for Adams – another observer suggested. When Cuomo’s top aide Joe Percoco was convicted of bribery, Cuomo publicly distanced himself from what seemed to be the rot in his administration. (Cuomo came back around with some contrition last year, when Percoco’s conviction was overturned by the U.S. Supreme Court.)

Former Gov. David Paterson, an ally of Adams, sees similarities with his own brush with investigations, comparing Adams’ current situation to a probe into whether he interfered in a domestic violence case that involved his aide. He was cleared of criminal actions but guilty of errors in judgment, the inquiry found. (He was also separately fined for soliciting and accepting free World Series tickets.) 

In the scandal’s wake, Paterson decided not to run for reelection. “During that time, it is very difficult,” he told City & State. “You feel like the world is just against you.”

Corruption scandals are nothing new in New York politics. Investigators circled former Mayor Bill de Blasio; prosecutors didn’t file criminal charges but found evidence that he helped campaign donors who sought influence in the city. De Blasio won a second term easily.

In ex-Gov. Eliot Spitzer’s career-ending scandal, prosecutors declined to file criminal charges in relation to his use of the services of a prostitution ring. By that time, Spitzer had already resigned. 

Where many observers, including both supporters of Adams and those who have been more openly critical of him, seem to agree is that his troubles have notably worsened in the past few weeks amid sprawling federal scrutiny. In addition to the federal probe into potential coordination between Adams’ 2021 campaign and Turkish officials to receive illegal foreign donations, several separate federal investigations into potential corruption have come to light following raids of some of Adams’ top officials; his first deputy mayor, schools chancellor, police commissioner, deputy mayor of public safety and a senior adviser. In the weeks since they happened, Adams’ police commissioner has resigned, as has his top lawyer in City Hall. 

The full scope of the probes remains unclear, but reports have suggested that federal investigators are looking at how city contracts are awarded in one case, and whether the now ex-police commissioner’s twin brother profited off his city connections in another. None of the individuals who have had their homes raided or devices seized have been accused of wrongdoing.

As anxious political observers, would-be endorsers and elected officials wait for the other shoe to drop – or wonder if enough already have – the question on everyone’s lips is this: What is the point of no return for Adams? Have high-profile raids inflicted deadly damage? Or is that point still in the distance without legal liability – or lack thereof – clearly spelled out?

If the specter of corruption is already dragging Adams’ political reputation and chances at reelection next year, some observers suggest it’s not yet crossed the Rubicon. Several socialist elected officials have jumpstarted calls for his resignation, but they’ve yet to snowball or cross over to the side of the spectrum where Adams’ political strengths actually lie. Instead, Adams’ outlook may largely depend on what remains the major unknown; who is implicated in any potential indictments, and how close they come to Adams himself. “For his political status, it’s negatively affected him already,” said civil rights attorney Norman Siegel, a supporter and friend of Adams who has nonetheless criticized some aspects of his leadership. “If an indictment came down, I think it would increase the negativity for his reputation as a political figure, unless people like me are more successful in making the point that he, as well as others in these situations, are innocent until proven guilty.”

Waiting on the other shoe

Some of Adams’ predecessors in executive office have suffered political hits even if they’ve evaded specific criminal charges in corruption investigations, like Paterson. But political ramifications are often distinct from legal ones.

It remains to be seen just how close the blast radius of a potential indictment would come to Adams himself.  Should the outcomes of the investigations fall outside Adams’ inner circle – resembling, for example, the recent indictment of two former FDNY chiefs on bribery charges – Adams himself may not be held to account by voters, one political consultant suggested. 

In another scenario, if an indictment were to implicate close aides, voters may hold responsible the mayor who on multiple occasions has said the buck stops with him. “He (could be) seen as more culpable and responsible, perhaps because he protected them at moments like the one he’s going through right now,” the consultant suggested. 

Several observers suggested that Adams could help insulate himself from that potential scenario by removing aides who have been swept up in the investigations or otherwise created controversies for City Hall. Multiple outlets have reported that the abrupt departure of City Hall Chief Counsel Lisa Zornberg last weekend was a result of Adams' refusal to follow her advice to fire top officials including Deputy Mayor for Public Safety Phil Banks and Senior Adviser Timothy Pearson. Zornberg said in a short resignation letter that she could “no longer effectively serve in my position;” Adams has said he won’t discuss private conversations he had with Zornberg.

“If there’s anyone who clearly has created a problem for the administration – and I’m not even saying that the problem is criminal – but if they’ve helped to create problems, it’s time to show them the door,” Paterson said, noting that he had to make that difficult decision in his own administration.

Political consultant Lupe Todd-Medina, a member of City & State’s advisory board, suggested that real damage to Adams’ political position would hinge upon Adams himself being indicted. “If that were to happen to him I do think that some of his longtime supporters would certainly take pause,” she said.

Adams has spent the past two weeks running his “stay focused, no distractions and grind” motto into the ground, and held a variety of outer borough quality-of-life press conferences that nonetheless struggle to distract from his much larger political problems. But Adams has repeatedly suggested that the dark clouds hanging over City Hall aren’t raining on the broader public or coloring their impressions of him. “They want to know, ‘Eric, what are you doing about the safety of my city, my schools, my housing, my employment?’” Adams said at a press conference this week. “That is at the top of their agenda. Because that’s what I hear when I’m out in the streets.”

Adams’ approval rating hasn’t been recently publicly polled; a December Quinnipiac poll of registered New York City voters put his approval rating at 28%. Asked about what was then the recent news of the federal investigation into his 2021 campaign – about which little information was available – a combined 52% of respondents said they believed Adams did something either illegal or unethical. In an April poll from the fiscally conservative Manhattan Institute, just 16% of likely voters said they would vote for Adams in 2025. In a June poll from Slingshot Strategies (which is now working with mayoral challenger Scott Stringer), 36% of registered Democrats said they approved of Adams’ running of the city.

That the investigations aren’t his only problem – New Yorkers are still concerned about crime, feuds with the City Council have burned some of his political power, and he faces multiple challengers in the 2025 primary – puts Adams in a more precarious position, some said.

Still, most other elected officials are hesitant to speculate on Adams’ political standing without a clearer understanding of what feds have on his administration. 

City Council Speaker Adrienne Adams, a fellow moderate from Southeast Queens who has sparred with the mayor over the separation of powers over the past three years, offered an almost pitying message at a press conference last week. “I am wishing our mayor well, nothing but the best of everything for him, and my heart does go out to him in this trying time for his administration,” she said, noting that no wrongdoing had been shown as of yet.

His political rivals, meanwhile, are clinging to the sense of chaos created by the investigations without joining outright calls for Adams to resign. “We don’t know what’s in all the investigations and I would like to have more information, but this is a City Hall in crisis,” New York City Comptroller Brad Lander, who is running against Adams in 2025, said this week.

Council Member Bob Holden, a Democrat who often votes with Republicans and was elected on both parties’ lines, backed Adams in the 2021 primary. Holden was hesitant to speculate about the outlook for the mayor but said that the investigations cast a shadow over the administration, and remain concerning unless Adams is cleared of wrongdoing. “You want him to thrive. You want the city to get back on its feet. You want to get the troubles behind us,” he said. “But if these keep happening, I would assume there is a point of no return.”