Siena poll: Harris leads Trump by 14 points in New York

In the first public polling in New York since President Joe Biden dropped out of the presidential race, new Democratic nominee Vice President Kamala Harris has nearly doubled Biden’s lead over Donald Trump. But while the new head of the ticket is polling better among New Yorkers, the positives haven’t necessarily translated down ballot – yet. 

According to a new Siena College poll, Harris holds a 14-point lead over Trump in a one-to-one matchup, with 53% of voters saying they would back her compared to 39% who said they would support Trump. That’s up from the 8-point lead that Biden had on Trump in June, when just 47% said they would vote for Biden and 39% said they would vote for Trump. But it’s still smaller than Biden’s 23-point margin of victory over Trump in the 2020 election.

Harris’ favorability among New Yorkers increased compared to October, the last time Siena College polled it. In the latest poll, a total of 53% of voters said they viewed her favorably, with 43% viewing her negatively. That’s up from October, when Harris had a net negative favorability with just 42% viewing her well and 47% viewing her poorly. 

Harris now has more support among Democrats than Biden did previously. In June, Siena found that 75% of Democrats backed Biden; in the latest poll, 86% of Democrats backed Harris. And while independents still favor Trump, 40% said they would now vote for Harris compared to only 28% who said they would back Biden in the last poll. “The landscape has changed since the last Siena College poll,” said Siena pollster Steven Greenberg. “The change at the top of the Democratic ticket has had a noticeable, while not dramatic, effect on the horserace.”

Still, the presence of Harris at the top of the ticket has not yet led to significant shifts in congressional races. The poll found New Yorkers prefer Democrats over Republicans in Congress by a margin of 52% to 37%, only a small change compared to the 50%-35% margin in June. Democrats hold only narrow leads in suburbs and upstate, where the most competitive races are taking place. While Harris holds a 14-point lead statewide, suburban voters are evenly split 47%-47% between her and Trump, and she holds just a 2-point lead with upstate voters. Over half of suburban and upstate voters hold unfavorable views of her as well. Still, most of Harris’ numbers in the suburbs and upstate represent a dramatic improvement compared to Biden’s numbers in June.

Meanwhile, Gov. Kathy Hochul continues to see record high unfavorability. Half of New Yorkers now view her unfavorably, a slight increase compared to Siena’s June poll that pegged her unfavorability at 49%. Only 39% of those polled viewed her favorably. But her scores among her base of Democrats and liberals went up slightly, and Hochul’s job approval score improved marginally as well, with 46% giving her a thumbs up, compared to 44% in June.

While New Yorkers may not approve of Hochul’s job performance, they do like her policies. A strong majority – 60% of voters – said they want to see cell phones banned in school classrooms. The governor is exploring the prospect right now and has been holding roundtable discussions on the issue around the state. She said on Monday that she intends to introduce legislation on the matter for lawmakers to take up next year. 

New Yorkers also continued to oppose congestion pricing, with 59% saying they want to see the tolling program scrapped entirely. Hochul paused congestion pricing indefinitely just before its scheduled June 30 implementation date. She declined to say how long the pause would last or when she planned to allow the program to start, and she has since faced withering criticism from advocates and many New York City politicians. But the move has been well-received by voters, with 45% of respondents to a June Siena poll indicating that they approved of the governor’s decision. The latest Siena poll shows even greater opposition to congestion pricing, with 59% of respondents – including a majority of plurality of every single demographic group polled – saying that the congestion pricing program should be scrapped entirely.