What does 2026 hold for Kathy Hochul?

There may be a presidential election and a mayoral race between now and then, but that doesn’t mean that Gov. Kathy Hochul isn’t thinking about her next reelection. “2026 may be a long way off, (but) I’m running. I’m preparing for that race,” Hochul said earlier this month when asked about her own future plans. 

The governor also put to rest rumors that she’s angling for a position in a second Biden administration as an out from the governor’s mansion and a way back to Washington. “Hell no,” Hochul recently told reporters when asked whether she would accept such a position. “There’s no job on planet Earth I’d rather be doing than to be the governor of the greatest state of the nation.”

Summer of 2024 might seem a little soon to start speculating about the next race for governor, but that has never stopped us before. And for politicians in an endless cycle of running and raising money, the political grind goes on unabated as decisions are often made with at least one eye toward the next race.

That’s no different for Hochul, who currently finds herself engaged with both federal and state-level election machinations. New York’s first female governor has had a turbulent first few years after being thrust into the position in 2021, including a tough election in 2022 that had many in her own party questioning her political chops. Between differentiating herself from her disgraced predecessor and seeking to make her own mark as governor, Hochul has experienced both limited success and failures part way through her first full term.

Two years is practically an eternity in the political world. After all, who would have thought even two months ago that Democrats would even be entertaining the notion of replacing President Joe Biden on the ballot. But two years can just as easily go by in an instant with the next election suddenly upon incumbents and insurgents alike. Strategizing starts the moment the new cycle begins – or even before that for politicos with long-term plans. In Hochul’s case, as she navigates the fraught political waters of 2024, she has both strengths and weaknesses she must start considering now as she contemplates her own future in office.

Hochul took office in August 2021 upon the stunning resignation of former Gov. Andrew Cuomo, who stepped down amid allegations of sexual harassment that he has denied. Hochul’s unexpected ascent gave her roughly a year before her first primary election for governor to prove herself to voters, and a little bit longer before her first general election for the position. Although technically in her first full term right now, she already has three years under her belt as governor.

New York has no term limits for governor, and governors who seek reelection have historically won at least a second term, if not a third. Hochul’s immediate predecessor Cuomo served almost three terms and was expected to seek a fourth had he not resigned. Eliot Spitzer resigned due to a prostitution scandal not long after his tenure started, while David Paterson chose to not run for a full term after finishing out Spitzer’s years. Before them, both George Pataki and Mario Cuomo served three terms, with Pataki besting the elder Cuomo when he attempted to run for a fourth. 

A New York governor who ran hasn’t failed to win a second term since Averell Harriman lost to Nelson Rockefeller in 1958. Hochul already overcame the hurdle that did in the short-lived governorship of Malcolm Wilson – who failed to win a full term after finishing out Rockefeller’s second – putting her in a historically favorable position to win again in 2026.

And Hochul is in an even better financial position than any of her predecessors. While she has faced her fair share of issues both in office and on the campaign trail, attracting donors has never been one of them. Hochul raised a record amount of money after becoming governor for her first election in 2022, and so far, she has continued apace for her reelection. Since the start of her first full term in 2023, Hochul has raised over $16.8 million for 2026. Just in the six months following her defeat of Republican Lee Zeldin, a time when many candidates may ease up on fundraising to recover from the campaign, Hochul had already brought in $4.5 million for 2026, once again tapping major real estate players for their cash. 

In the first half of 2024, the most recent campaign finance filing period, Hochul recorded about $5.9 million in contributions, ending the period with over $13.5 million on hand. While that’s far less than what she had at the height of the 2022 election cycle, she has plenty of time to get that dollar amount back up into the $20 million range. “There’s a standing joke that if you get a call from the governor, it’s a fundraising one,” said one donor, who requested anonymity to speak candidly. 

Despite a tight election in 2022 – Zeldin came within 6 percentage points of winning – Hochul has so far kept several top campaign advisers on the payroll, according to campaign finance records. The 2022 race wound up being the closest in New York in decades as political observers during and after the campaign questioned some of the political decision-making by her team. 

There will be at least one notable change to Hochul’s campaign team. In 2022, Hochul relied heavily on Adam Sullivan, the Colorado-based consultant whose involvement in the campaign and her administration was mostly kept quiet. According to The New York Times, Sullivan played a major role in the campaign’s decision not to initially focus on public safety even though Republicans ran heavily on the issue, winning them key victories across the state and nearly costing Hochul the governorship. 

Hochul fired Sullivan last year following the Times’ reporting, but other top campaign staff members are still on the payroll. Jefrey Pollock and his firm Global Strategy Group remain her pollsters. Jennifer Goodman has returned to work communications. Campaign manager Brian Lenzmeier also remains on staff, as well as top advisers like Abigail Erwin and Justin Kim, who helped to lead Hochul’s record-breaking fundraising efforts. Other leading campaign staff like Mackenzie Wasilick and Jerrel Harvey have since found their ways into Hochul’s administration. The governor also indicated that she’s sticking with Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado as her running mate.

Separately, Hochul is working closely with Rep. Hakeem Jeffries and Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand to help mobilize Democrats in the state to win back the House after a catastrophic 2022 in New York and has begun taking steps to revamp the state Democratic Party. “The governor clearly has taken steps to energize the state party apparatus this year,” said Democratic consultant Evan Stavisky. “So that immediately puts her in a better position two years from now to run again.”

Despite her continued fundraising, about a year-and-a-half into her first full term as governor, Hochul’s position leaves room for improvement. She hit record-low favorability ratings last month, with 49% of New Yorkers viewing her unfavorably and 50% disapproving of her job. This despite the plurality of voters agreeing with her sudden about-face on congestion pricing, pausing the tolling scheme less than a month before it was set to take effect. The June Siena College poll followed months of downward trends for the governor.

Although popular in the suburbs – where Hochul and congressional Democrats alike struggled in 2022 – the congestion pricing decision also rankled many in the state Legislature, progressives and environmental advocates, as well as members of the business and real estate communities who normally find themselves aligned with the governor. It made odd bedfellows of those upset with the governor and led to immediate speculation around the potential negative political ramifications of the decision. Whispers of challenges from both the left and the right began – although none have really emerged yet. One labor source said that broadly there is a sense that Hochul should be primaried and hope that she will be, but leaders have not discussed any names. “I think the vultures are too busy picking at Eric Adams’ corpse to look at hers yet,” the source quipped. Democratic political consultant Eli Valentin said that Hochul “will go into her reelection effort with many vulnerabilities, but without a serious challenger.”

If Hochul were to face a primary challenge, it would likely be bolstered by the leftwing Working Families Party. It supported New York City Public Advocate Jumaane Williams for governor in 2022 and backed Cynthia Nixon in her 2018 challenge to then-Gov. Andrew Cuomo. The WFP hasn’t been shy with its criticisms of Hochul during her first few years in office, but Co-Executive Director Jasmine Gripper said it’s too soon to really start considering 2026. “What we want to see is Kathy Hochul really listen to New Yorkers and be responsive to the working class New Yorkers, and not just the ultra rich and her donors,” Gripper said. “She will have the chance to prove herself through another budget fight before the next gubernatorial election.”

Although she just recently reaffirmed her relationship with Delgado, recent moves by Hochul’s lieutenant may also offer complications for 2026. Only a week after Hochul touted their strong relationship, Delgado publicly split with his boss on Biden, calling for the president to drop out of the race. Hochul downplayed the disconnect the next day, and confirmed that she got a heads up about the move while denying that she was mad at Delgado. But his statement – released not long after he launched a leadership PAC to help elect swing-district Democrats – immediately attracted speculation about Delgado attempting to distance himself from Hochul with an eye to his political future – potentially even running for governor. “NY 2026 just became very interesting today,” former Assembly Member and Obama White House aide Michael Blake wrote on X soon after Delgado released his statement.

Of course, Hochul handily dispatched her primary challengers from both the left and the right in 2022, winning every county in the state by large margins – including the homes of her two challengers. The extra time to establish her name recognition and prove herself to voters before 2026 could make a primary attempt even more of an uphill challenge.

The specter of Cuomo also continues to loom large as rumors of his political comeback continue to swirl. He has reportedly made calls to members of labor and has reached out to other politically influential players in recent months, and has even launched a new ad critical of pro-Palestine Democrats funded by a pro-Israel group he launched last year. The speculation has largely been that he is considering running for mayor of New York City next year, but the prospect that he will attempt to run for governor again has not been ruled out. And according to the Hochul donor, his potential comeback remains a concern for his former lieutenant governor.

Two years offers Hochul a cushion to mend fences with communities that may be unhappy with her right now, and to build new coalitions to shore up her campaign efforts after a tough 2022. “Two years is two lifetimes – in fact, you might argue it's 24 lifetimes,” Stavisky said. But placating members of her own party will only be part of the equation moving forward.

Of course, any campaign machinations will depend on the 2024 presidential and congressional elections, with most political observers agreeing that the outcome of those races will be one of the main determining factors in the 2026 governor’s race. “My focus right now is this November,” Hochul said earlier this month when asked about her reelection. She said that she has traveled to battleground districts in the state – which also happen to be the areas she will need to win in 2026 – to ensure Democrats can win back the House. “But also deliver New York in a robust, big way for President Joe Biden,” Hochul added. 

The governor is hyperfocused on delivering for federal Democrats after the criticisms she faced in the wake of the 2022 election. Even former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi blamed the loss of the House on New York, and specifically Hochul’s weak messaging at the top of the ticket. “The governor didn’t realize soon enough where the trouble was,” Pelosi told The New York Times at the start of last year. This cycle offers Hochul the chance to prove that she can deliver for the party, while helping to elevate Jeffries to House speaker and gaining a powerful ally in the Capitol – and cementing her relationship with Biden should he win. 

Hochul has been working hard as a Biden surrogate throughout the election season, and has maintained a markedly more amicable relationship with the president than New York City Mayor Eric Adams. Hochul even joined Biden at the White House last month when he issued an executive order to restrict asylum claims, one of a select group of officials to attend the signing. On the airwaves, she has served as a reliable supporter of Biden during appearances on cable news, even as some have offered public and private reservations about his age. Hochul was one of nearly two dozen Democratic governors to meet with Biden about his candidacy earlier this month, and was one of only a handful to speak with reporters afterwards. “President Joe Biden is in it to win it, and all of us said we pledged our support to him,” Hochul said following the meeting – a statement that came as a surprise to some in attendance who voiced some reservations, according to the Times. More recently, as other New York politicians join the chorus of people calling on him to drop out or offer only lukewarm messages of support, Hochul affirmed to reporters that there is nothing that convince her to rescind her backing of Biden.

Traditional political wisdom suggests that the party in power suffers during the midterms, and a Trump victory could certainly bolster Hochul and other Democrats just like in 2018. But given the close margin of victory last time, a strong Republican challenge with a Democrat in the White House could fell Hochul. Rep. Mike Lawler, who has already successfully unseated both Democrats he has run against, has not been shy about his gubernatorial interests. “He would be formidable,” Valentin said. And the popular Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman has been raising his profile since taking office, making national headlines for policy decisions and often appearing alongside Donald Trump. 

Democratic political consultant L. Joy Williams suggested that Hochul should take the time between now and the next election to rack up some major policy victories. “Those of us supporting the president unequivocally can point to a myriad of policies, legislation and executive decisions that make Biden/Harris a successful administration. Can Hochul do the same?” Williams questioned. “If I was her, or on her team, I would want to make sure my supporters can point to her successes.” Hochul has certainly enjoyed some policy and budget victories, focusing on issues of public safety and affordability that remain major concerns for voters, particularly in the suburbs. But she arguably has no marquee issue she has delivered on in a tangible way that can translate to the polls. Some of her biggest fights like pausing congestion pricing and rolling back bail reform – while victories for Hochul – were defensive moves rather than proactive ones. And the major housing deal agreed to this year that included new tenant protections and incentives to build more involved some significant concessions compared to her original plan, removing stronger mandates for growth. 

Hochul has also suffered political blows at the same time, starting with the rejection of her pick for chief judge of the Court of Appeals by the state Senate. While the political debacle that dominated the start of the 2023 legislative session may not register years down the line in the minds of average voters, it soured Hochul’s relationship with leaders in the state Senate early, and angered powerful unions that had helped push her over the finish line in 2022. 

More recently, she failed to muscle through a new funding stream for the Metropolitan Transportation Authority after putting the brakes on congestion pricing before state lawmakers left Albany for the year. Many voters approved of the move, but it left a hole of over $15 billion in the MTA’s capital plan that led the agency to confirm it would need to scale back or halt a number of critical repairs and improvements despite Hochul’s attempts to downplay the impact. She has touted the passage of popular first-in-the-nation laws to protect children on social media, but regulations for that will take months if not years to fully enact – and they will come from the attorney general’s office rather than her own. And unlike past governors including Andrew Cuomo, Hochul has no physical infrastructure projects with her mark that voters can see and feel. She has attempted to brand certain projects stewarded by Cuomo with her own seal, such as the wholesale renovation of LaGuardia Airport, but with little success.

But others think her issues are more fundamental than any particular policy. “I think the same vulnerability she had in 2022 will be there in 2026,” said Basil Smikle, lecturer of international and public affairs at Columbia University and a former executive director of the state Democratic Party. “In some ways, I don't know that she has a natural constituency. And that takes time to build.” Smikle added that he doesn’t think Hochul has “very solidly imprinted her leadership style and her vision” on voters in the state.

Hochul is the state’s first upstate governor in decades, already something of a hindrance when the vast majority of votes come from New York City and its surrounding suburbs. Her first lieutenant governor pick – Brian Benjamin – initially helped to balance out her ticket with a Black elected official from New York City. But he lasted less than a year before he resigned after an indictment on corruption charges he denied. Hochul’s second pick of Delgado ostensibly could have helped create inroads with the Latino community, which had been critical of its lack of representation in the highest levels of government, but backfired when some Latino activists rejected Delgado’s Cape Verdean roots. Hochul’s occasional gaffes – like accidentally saying Black children in the Bronx don’t know what a computer is – hasn’t helped at making inroads with communities of color.

But building up those coalitions and accomplishments over the next couple years is exactly what outside observers say she should spend her time doing. Roughly two years is an eternity, but every unused second is one wasted. And Hochul doesn’t have any seconds to waste.