What could a second Trump presidency mean for New York?

Long gone are the days in which a Queens-born celebrity developer conquered Manhattan. Once a reality TV star with his name plastered across New York City tabloids and buildings, Donald Trump’s hometown has rejected him in two presidential elections, mobilized in mass protests against him, canceled contracts with his family organization, stripped his name from private properties, and – most recently – convicted him on 34 counts in his hush-money trial. 

Now Trump is again the Republican presidential nominee, basking in the turmoil as Democrats scramble over President Joe Biden’s continued viability for office. Trump has certainly distanced himself from the city he built his fortune and legacy in since he became president. He moved his primary residence to Florida in 2019 and his relationship with New York state and city elected officials was often tense during his time in the White House. 

Trump very well could win a second term – especially after the assassination attempt at a rally in Pennsylvania Saturday. The failed attempt will probably change both the messaging and direction of the campaign, likely enhancing Trump’s standing. Polling already didn’t look great for Biden. Trump has even had some recent resurgence in popularity in New York. Public polls from the last couple of months found that Biden’s lead had dropped to 8 points across the state – an unusually narrow gap in deep blue New York. In May, Trump held a fairly large rally in the South Bronx, hoping to entice minority voters.

Many feel the writing may be on the wall. If Trump were to return to the White House what may it mean for New York? What dynamics are different in 2024 compared to his previous tenure? Will he be out for revenge? Driven to prove a point? City & State delved into the past and present to find out. Here are some of the potential ways another Trump presidency could impact the state and the city he once called home. 

A more permanent end to congestion pricing 

Yes, Gov. Kathy Hochul has temporarily paused the implementation of congestion pricing, but the fate of the controversial program may end up getting tossed to whoever is in the White House. Trump, whose administration delayed congestion pricing for years, has again been a vocal opponent to the program. He has even pledged to terminate congestion pricing in his first week of office. 

“I can’t believe that New York City is instituting Congestion Pricing, where everyone has to pay a fortune for the ‘privilege’ of coming into the City, which is in desperate trouble without it,” Trump wrote on Truth Social on May 7. “It is a big incentive not to come – there are plenty of other places to go.”

Back in 2019, after the Legislature passed congestion pricing, the Trump administration deliberately stalled on giving the Metropolitan Transportation Authority an answer on whether they’d require an environmental assessment or a more in-depth environmental impact statement for the program to be implemented. The lack of guidance led many pro-congestion pricing leaders to believe the program could only go into effect after a Democrat defeated Trump. Now the possibility of a second Trump presidency, which could come before the end of Hochul’s pause on congestion pricing, could again uproot the future of the program. 

Tense relationships and vendettas

Trump has a vendetta against New York and certain elected officials, Democratic political consultant Hank Sheinkopf said. Those include Reps. Dan Goldman, who represented Democrats as lead counsel during Trump’s first impeachment, and Jerry Nadler, who led the Judiciary Committee. Trump demonstrated this during his time in office, such as when his administration capped state and local tax deductions in New York through its sweeping tax overhaul passed in 2017.

“Trump will not reward states that do not vote for him and he will punish those that don’t as well,” Sheinkopf said. “That’s been his style, and you can expect it to continue. He gains nothing by helping New York.” 

Of course, tense relationships with the state’s top leaders aren’t necessarily seen as a bad thing by everyone. Some elected officials – like the Republican members of New York’s congressional delegation – would likely find a lot of support from a Trump presidency especially if the party maintains control of Congress.

“I want the next president to end our border crisis and put a permanent stop to congestion pricing,” New York City Council Minority Leader Joe Borelli said. “That’s how he can solve some of New York’s problems, and it won’t matter whether the elected Dems are chummy with him.”

Shake ups for federal prosecutors

The president has the power to nominate all 93 United States attorneys, subject to Senate confirmation. Each U.S. attorney serves as the chief federal law enforcement officer. Though technically appointed to a four-year term, they usually continue serving until a successor is named. By law, the president also has the power to remove any U.S. attorney, but traditionally this power has rarely been exercised. Instead, U.S. attorneys traditionally offer their resignations whenever a new president takes office. If the president is from the same party, they usually keep their positions, but if the president is from a different party, the president usually accepts their resignations and appoints a replacement.

In the Southern District of New York – Manhattan’s storied federal prosecutor office – the current U.S. attorney is Damian Williams. If Trump once again becomes president, Williams’ time in office would likely come to an end after just four years of service. While the same can be said for any of the state’s top prosecutors, SDNY has long been involved in a host of high-profile cases, stirring friction between the office and the U.S. Justice Department under the Trump administration. In 2017, Trump fired SDNY U.S. Attorney Preet Bharara, a holdover from the Obama administration, and U.S. Attorney General Jeff Sessions appointed Geoffrey Berman as Bharara's interim replacement, though Berman was never confirmed by the Senate. In 2020, after Berman investigated members of Trump's inner circle, the president abruptly fired him.

Fewer migrants

While Trump’s administration enacted an unprecedented volume of executive actions related to immigration during his time in the White House, the state of immigration in New York has changed dramatically over the last couple of years. Nearly 200,000 migrants have come through the New York City shelter system since the spring of 2022 – many of whom remain in the city today. A swath of those individuals are part of the over a million immigrants granted humanitarian “parole” by the Biden administration, meaning they’ve temporarily been granted eligibility to work. Much would change under a Trump administration. He’s threatened to roll out mass deportations of immigrants as president, vowing to crack down on illegal immigration while also significantly restricting legal immigration. Many immigrants in New York would be impacted as a result.