For Marc Molinaro, it’s not about the fundraising

GOP Rep. Marc Molinaro is fed up with headlines about fundraising in the 19th Congressional District. “Why would you ask a question like that?” he responded when City & State asked him whether the latest numbers, reported Thursday by Politico, have him discouraged. His Democratic opponent Josh Riley has once again outraised him in another fundraising quarter. “Every Republican is being outraised by Democrats,” Molinaro said. “They’ve always outraised us, and honestly, I will tell you this, what I do not appreciate about your publication is that they think that is news. It is not. We’ve always been outraised.”

He’s not wrong about his own campaigns. Molinaro raised about $2.5 million in the 2022 cycle, compared to Riley’s $4.2 million haul. Yet Molinaro, who’s held some form of elected office in the region since he was a teen, narrowly beat Riley by about 1.5 percentage points. That gives him the incumbent’s advantage in an election year without a strong Democratic consensus about the top of the ticket. Molinaro is also running in a newly redrawn district that is ever so slightly more friendly to him than last time around.

But is “every Republican … being outraised by Democrats” in New York? No – at least not in their individual races as of the June pre-primary filings. Across New York’s swing districts, incumbency had more impact on fundraising dominance than party affiliation. As of June, Molinaro’s fellow incumbent GOP Reps. Nick LaLota, Anthony D’Esposito, Brandon Williams and Mike Lawler had all outraised their respective Democratic challengers John Avlon, Laura Gillen, John Mannion and Mondaire Jones. (Avlon, Gillen and Mannion all had primaries.) But incumbent Democratic Reps. Tom Suozzi and Pat Ryan had both so far outraised their Republican challengers Mike LiPetri and Alison Esposito. New numbers come out Monday, so that could change. Gillen in particular had a strong recent filing period, Politico reported. 

Across those swing districts though, Democrats as a whole have raised more money than their Republican counterparts. Republican candidates have brought in a combined total of about $17 million, compared to Democrats’ roughly $26 million. In other words, Republican incumbents are generally outraising their opponents by much smaller margins than Democratic incumbents are.

Even so, Molinaro’s assertion doesn’t entirely hold true at the state level. But is “every Republican … being outraised by Democrats” nationwide? Not really. Nationwide, Joe Biden has so far outraised Donald Trump, but Republican House candidates have raised about $33 million more than Democratic House candidates according to the Federal Election Commission. The top 10 fundraisers include five Democrats and five Republicans. The top five Dems raised roughly $52.8 million, while the top five Republicans raised $57.4 million (though that includes former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, who left Congress). In New York, where Democrats dominate, eight of the top 10 fundraising congressional candidates are indeed Democrats, though GOP Rep. Elise Stefanik comes in second to House Majority Leader Hakeem Jeffries with roughly $9.8 million raised.

As for the impact of fundraising on the outcome of races, Molinaro said the narrative is overblown. “I think it’s overestimated,” he said.