2024 state legislative races to watch

The primaries are done, which means that it is full steam ahead for the November elections in the state Legislature. 

Democrats have maintained supermajorities in both the state Senate and the Assembly, but Republicans are hoping to chip away at those numbers. The lower chamber has reason to sweat – with the early exit of Assembly Member Kenneth Zebrowski, Democrats only have 101 members in the Assembly, the smallest majority the party has had in years. Losing just three seats currently or most recently held by Democrats would cost the party its supermajority. Democrats lost a number of seats in 2022, a trend they surely hope to reverse this year. 

Democrats in the state Senate saw their own supermajority drop by one member last cycle, but they still held onto their two-thirds majority of 42 seats. Any losses this year would drop their numbers into simple majority territory. And Republicans have some real pick-up opportunities in both open seats and districts where incumbents barely won in 2022. 

But Democrats are also on the offensive in a few races, looking to flip seats in both chambers while defending their positions. A slew of retirements and other political maneuverings have resulted in a number of open seats that have attracted competitive candidates. 

While the contests for Congress may be drawing national attention, those for the state Legislature should not be missed either. Here are some of the races to keep an eye on as November draws nearer.

STATE SENATE 

District 4

Long Island, parts of Suffolk County including Brentwood and Central Islip

Candidates: Incumbent Monica Martinez (D, WFP), Teresa Bryant (R, CON)

2020 census data: 43.1% Hispanic, 32.4% white, 16.8% Black, 4.2% Asian, 1% other, 0.2% Native American

2022 general election results: Martinez (D, WFP) 51.4%, Wendy Rodriguez (R, CON) 48.6%

Voter registration: 83,460 active Democrats, 37,917 active Republicans, 52,363 active independents

State Sen. Monica Martinez has had some electoral ups and downs since she first ran for the state Senate in 2018. That year, she succeeded as part of the Democratic wave, flipping the open 3rd State Senate District blue. But a year later, she lost to now-Republican state Sen. Alexis Weik. Redistricting gave Martinez a fresh shot in the new 4th State Senate District, while Weik remained in the 3rd. Though she won, Martinez didn’t enjoy a landslide victory. Teresa Bryant launched an unsuccessful bid for the Suffolk County Legislature in 2023, but she has now turned her attention to the state Senate as she attempts to keep Martinez confined to a single term once again.

District 7

Long Island, north shore from Great Neck to Laurel Hollow

Candidates: Incumbent Jack Martins (R, CON), Kim Keiserman (D)

2020 census demographics: 60.9%  white, 22.1% Asian, 11.7% Hispanic, 2% Black, 0.6% other

2022 general election results: Martins (R, CON) 53.2%, Anna Kaplan (D, WFP) 46.8%

Voter registration: 83,919 active Democrats, 65,311 active Republicans, 69,900 active independents 

For years, this Nassau County district – or a version of it – has been a seminal swing seat, regularly fluctuating between Democrats and Republicans. Currently, it’s held by Republican state Sen. Jack Martins, who returned to the seat after previously serving in it between 2011 and 2016.  He unseated former Democratic state Sen. Anna Kaplan in 2022 and is now seeking reelection. He faces first-time candidate Kim Keiserman, a local activist and the president of the Port Washington Democratic Club, who has brought in some impressive fundraising numbers already. In the June primary, she easily bested fellow Democrat Brad Schwartz, who had originally also accepted the Working Families Party line. He dropped the line after losing the primary, making the general election a two-person race.

District 11

Queens, including Whitestone, College Point, Glen Oaks and Queens Village, as well as Rikers Island in the Bronx

Candidates: Incumbent Toby Ann Stavisky (D, WFP), Yiatin Chu (R, CON)

2020 census demographics: 37.4% Asian, 28.3% white, 19% Hispanic, 8.8% Black, 2.8% other, 0.3% Native American

2022 election results: Stavistky (D, WFP) 56.7%, Stefano Forte (R, CON) 43.2%

Voter registration: 97,754 active Democrats, 25,575 active Republicans and 43,358 active independents 

State Sen. Toby Ann Stavisky has represented the 11th State Senate District for over two decades and has won each of her races pretty handily every time. But her race against Stefano Forte last cycle was her closest general election contest ever. Education advocate Yiatin Chu this year sees an opportunity to unseat the longtime lawmaker who serves as the chair of her chamber’s Higher Education Committee. The district has changed a lot since Stavisky first took office – what was once a largely Jewish district now has a large Asian American population. Thanks to the demographic changes, she has attracted some challengers, but none have yet been successful. While Stavisky still holds a strong incumbency advantage, Chu could be able to mobilize Asian American voters, particularly those who have been active in the debates over specialized high school entrance exams.

District 17

Brooklyn, including parts of Bay Ridge, Dyker Heights and Bensonhurst

Candidates: Incumbent Iwen Chu (D, WFP), Stephan Chan (R, CON)

2020 census demographics: 48.6% Asian, 29.3% white, 18% Hispanic, 1.3% Black, 0.5% other, 0.1% Native American

2022 election results: Chu (D, WFP) 50.7%, Vito LaBella (R, CON) 49.2%

Voter registration: 62,392 active Democrats, 17,001 active Republicans, 37,638 active independents

Redistricting in 2022 created a new seat in Brooklyn, the first plurality Asian American state Senate district in the state. State Sen. Iwen Chu won the open seat in a fairly tight race two years ago and is now hoping to hold onto the district for a second term. She’ll face off against Republican Stephan Chan, a former U.S. Marine and retired sergeant in the New York City Police Department.

District 38

Hudson Valley, including most of Rockland County

Candidates: Incumbent Bill Weber (R), Elijah Reichlin-Melnick (D), Barbara Francis (WFP)

2020 census demographics: 60.7% white, 19.6% Hispanic, 10.2% Black, 6.1% Asian, 1% other

2022 general election results: Weber (R, CON) 51.6%, Reichlin-Melnick (D, WFP) 48.3%

Voter registration: 88,526 active Democrats, 45,802 active Republicans, 48,592 active independents

Constituents in Rockland County are in for a rematch as former Democratic state Sen. Elijah Reichlin-Melnick is challenging Republican state Sen. Bill Weber for his old seat. Reichlin-Melnick first won the district in 2020, a good year electorally for Democrats in the state Legislature. But after only one term, Weber bested him to flip the seat red, one of a handful of downstate suburban losses Democrats suffered in 2022. Now, Reichlin-Melnick is trying to win back his place in the state Senate, and he may benefit from a presidential-year boost he did not have last time. But the race was complicated by Reichlin-Melnick’s loss in a primary for the Working Families Party line, turning it into a three-way contest. Barbara Francis’ place on the ballot could split votes away from him, and Reichlin-Melnick’s campaign has charged that her candidacy is a Republican ploy to dilute his support.

District 39

Hudson Valley, including much of Orange County, Poughkeepsie and Cold Spring

Candidates: Incumbent Rob Rolison (R, CON), Yvette Valdés Smith (D, WFP)

2020 census demographics: 59.9% white, 19.7% Hispanic, 12.3% Black, 3.3% Asian, 0.7% other

2022 general election results: Rolison (R, CON) 53.1%, Julie Shiroishi (D, WFP) 46.9%

Voter registration: 79,842 active Democrats, 56,324 active Republicans, 57,819 active independents

Redistricting created a new Hudson Valley district in 2022 that, at least on paper, appeared to favor Democrats. But Republican state Sen. Rob Rolison, who had been mayor of Poughkeepsie, won the seat. Now, the minority leader of the Dutchess County Legislature is seeking to flip the seat blue. Yvette Valdés Smith announced her campaign against Rolison in late January, entering the race with endorsements from Rep. Pat Ryan and Assembly Member Dana Levenberg.

District 40

Hudson Valley, including parts of Westchester, Putnman and Rockland Counties

Candidates: Incumbent Pete Harckham (D, WFP), Gina Arena (R, CON)

2020 census demographics: 65.3% white, 21.8% Hispanic, 5.1% Black, 4.2% Asian, 0.6% other, 0.1% Native American

2022 general election results: Harckham (D, WFP) 53.4%, Arena (R, CON) 46.6%

Voter registration: 87,298 active Democrats, 57,778 active Republicans, 59,791 active independents

Coming into the state Senate as part of the 2018 wave that gave Democrats control of the chamber, state Sen. Pete Harckham originally unseated then-state Sen. Terrence Murphy in a highly competitive race to flip the seat. Since then, Harckham has managed to maintain his place in the chamber, but none of his reelection campaigns were ones to take for granted. Arena first challenged him last cycle, and while she didn’t perform quite as well as former Westchester County Executive Rob Astorino in his 2020 race against Harckham, she still gave him a run for his money. Traditional wisdom suggests that the odds are more in Harckham’s favor during a presidential election year, but that hasn’t stopped Arena from going for a rematch.

District 42

Hudson Valley, including most of Orange County

Candidates: Incumbent James Skoufis (D, WFP), Dorey Houle (R), Tim Mitts (CON)

2020 census demographics: 60.0% white, 19.9% Hispanic, 8.8% Black, 3.6% other, 3.2% Asian

2022 general election results: Skoufis (D, WFP) 50.7%, Houle (R, CON) 49.3%

Voter registration: 70,104 active Democrats, 59,221 active Republicans, 51,205 active independents

State Sen. James Skoufis won a tight reelection last cycle during a tough year for Democrats in the state, managing to hold onto his seat against Republican Dorey Houle while other members of his party fared worse in the Hudson Valley. The two candidates will now have a rematch for the seat – with a twist. Candidate Tim Mitts won the Conservative Party line in a primary against Houle, who ran on the line in 2022. Unions campaigned for Mitts during the low-profile primary, seen as a way to help split the right-wing vote in order to boost Skoufis’ chances. The Democratic incumbent will likely have an easier path to reelection compared to last cycle, as the party and its allies vie to maintain their supermajority in the state Senate.

District 46

Capital District, including Albany, Amsterdam and Rotterdam

Candidates: Pat Fahy (D, WFP), Ted Danz (R,CON)

2020 census demographics: 70.4% white, 11.1% Black, 8.1% Hispanic, 4.9% Asian, 0.6% other

2022 general election results: Neil Breslin (D, WFP) 55.1%, Richard Amedure (R, CON) 44.8%

Voter registration: 90,410 active Democrats, 44,172 active Republicans, 53,265 active independents 

After months of speculation, Democratic state Sen. Neil Breslin announced that he would not seek reelection. In office since 1997, Breslin is currently the longest-serving lawmaker in the chamber. Almost immediately after Breslin announced he would retire in January, the Albany Democratic Party voted to endorse Assembly Member Pat Fahy to replace him. Although the Democratic establishment quickly lined up behind her as the heir apparent, not all Democrats were pleased with the speed at which it happened. A GOP challenger later emerged in Ted Danz, a local HVAC business operator. The state Senate hopeful has run against Fahy before and has received support from state Senate Republican leadership in the early days of his campaign. 

District 50

Central New York, including the suburbs of Syracuse

Candidates: Chris Ryan (D, WFP), Nick Paro (R,CON)

2020 census demographics: 85.2% white, 3.6% Hispanic, 3.2% Black, 2.8% Asian, 0.4% Native American, 0.3% other

2022 general election results: John Mannion (D,WFP) 50%, Rebecca Shiroff (R,CON) 50%

Voter registration: 68,872 active Democrats, 71,086 active Republicans, 62,240 active independents

This Central New York seat may offer Republicans one of their best shots at flipping a seat in the state Senate. State Sen. John Mannion, who is now running for Congress, won his reelection in 2022 by just 10 votes, among the closest margins in the entire state. The district is also one of the rare ones in play where Republican voters outnumber Democratic ones. With the seat open, Onondaga County Legislature Minority Leader Chris Ryan won the Democratic primary to try to keep the seat blue, while Town of Salina Supervisor Nick Paro became the Republican nominee without a primary. The 50th Senate District, or a version of it, was held by Republicans for decades until Mannion achieved victory in 2020, the second time he ran for the open seat. Given how close the race was in 2022, Republicans see the district as a major pickup opportunity this year.

District 52

Southern Tier, including Ithaca, Binghamton and Cortland

Candidates: Incumbent Lea Webb (D, WFP), Mike Sigler (R)

2020 census demographics: 76.6% white, 6.5% Asian, 5.7% Hispanic, 5.2% Black, 0.5% other, 0.2% Native American

2022 general election results: Webb (D, WFP) 51.1%, Richard David (R, CON) 48.8%

Voter registration: 77,400 active Democrats, 52,183 active Republicans, 44,841 active independents

State Sen. Lea Webb flipped her Southern Tier district in 2022 after former Republican state Sen. Fred Akshar left the chamber to become the sheriff of Broome County. Until then, It had been held consistently by Republicans – and Tompkins County Legislator Mike Sigler is hoping to return it to Republican control. As a longtime local elected official, Sigler could put up a competitive fight against the freshman Webb, who won election after serving on the Binghamton City Council for over a decade.

District 63

Western New York, including most of Buffalo

Candidates: April Baskin (D, WFP), Jack Moretti (R, CON)

2020 census demographics: 48.7% white, 31.3% Black, 9.6% Hispanic, 5.9% Asian, 0.4% other, 0.3% Native American

2022 general election results: Tim Kennedy (D, WFP) 82.7%, Faye Peitrak (CON) 17.2%

Voter registration: 108,768 active Democrats, 24,107 active Republicans, 39,226 active independents

State Sen. Tim Kennedy announced in November that he will run to replace Rep. Brian Higgins, who retired in February to lead Shea’s Performing Arts Center. Erie County Democrats chose Erie County Legislature Chair April Baskin to be their nominee after a party convention in February, with Buffalo Common Council Member Mitch Nowakowski subsequently withdrawing his bid. Republicans are putting forward Jack Moretti, a retired state trooper, in an attempt to flip Kennedy’s old seat. But doing so will be an uphill battle, considering that Democrats hold a steep enrollment advantage in the district and Republicans have not contested it in a decade. 

ASSEMBLY

District 4

Long Island, north shore Suffolk County including Port Jefferson and Coram 

Candidates: Incumbent Ed Flood (R,CON), Rebecca Kassay (D)

2020 census demographics: 62.9% white, 15.6% Hispanic, 9.2% Black, 8.2% Asian, 0.6% other

2022 general election results: Ed Flood (R, CON) 50.7%, Steve Englebright (D, WFP) 49.3%

Voter registration: 33,449 active Democrats, 25,749 active Republicans, 27,589 active independents

Republican Assembly Member Ed Flood unseated longtime former Democratic Assembly Member Steven Englebright in 2022 – and now Democrats are looking to take back the seat. Village of Port Jefferson Deputy Mayor Rebecca Kassay bested Skyler Johnson, chair of the Suffolk Young Democrats, in the party’s June primary. Johnson had been endorsed by the Working Families Party, but he gave up the line, making it a two-way contest between Flood and Kassay in November. 

District 11

Long Island, including Amityville and Lindenhurst

Candidates: Kwani O'Pharrow (D), Joseph Cardinale (R, CON)

2020 census demographics: 42.6% white, 28.9% Hispanic, 21.9% Black, 2.8% Asian, 0.9% other

2022 general election results: Kimberly Jean-Pierre (D) 50.4%, Christopher Sperber (R, CON)

Voter registration: 37,367 active Democrats, 19,639 active Republicans, 23,452 active independents

Democratic Assembly Member Kimberly Jean-Pierre announced earlier this year that she would not seek reelection, leaving her seat open for both parties. She squeaked by to reelection in 2022, so an incumbent-free contest in November could prove particularly competitive. Democrats picked Kwani O’Pharrow, a retired New York City police detective, as their candidate to replace Jean-Pierre. Republicans had a similar idea, backing fellow retired NYPD officer Joseph Cardinale for the post. 

District 21

Long Island, including Malverne, Baldwin and Rockville Center

Candidates: Incumbent Brian Curran (R, CON), Judy Griffin (D)

2020 census demographics: 51.4% white, 23.1% Hispanic, 16.3% Black, 4.9% Asian, 1.1% other, 0.2% Native American

2022 general election results: Curran (R, CON) 50.1%, Griffin (D) 49.9%

Voter registration: 41,120 active Democrats, 28,131 active Republicans, 24,487 active independents

This Nassau County Assembly seat has not only flipped back and forth from Democrat to Republican, but has changed hands specifically between Assembly Member Brian Curran and former Assembly Member Judy Griffin more than once. Griffin defeated then-incumbent Curran in 2018 to take the seat. But Curran made a comeback in 2022, wresting back control of the district. Griffin is now looking to make her own return, challenging Curran for a second time in hopes of a repeat of 2018.

District 23

Queens, including Ozone Park, Lindenwood and parts of the Rockaways

Candidates: Incumbent Stacey Pheffer Amato (D, We the People Party), Tom Sullivan (R, CON, Common Sense Party)

2020 census demographics: 44.1% white, 24.4% Hispanic, 15.7% Black, 9.8% Asian,  2.4% other, 0.4% Native American

2022 general election results: Amato (D, We the People Party) 50%, Sullivan (R, CON) 49.9%

Voter registration: 39,368 active Democrats, 15,754 active Republicans, 15,626 active independents

Assembly Member Stacey Pheffer Amato is one of the more moderate Democrats in the state Legislature and nearly lost her seat to a Republican in 2022. Financial adviser and combat veteran Tom Sullivan, a Republican, lost to Amato by just 15 votes in 2022 after a protracted series of recounts and legal rulings. Vowing to return after such a close margin, Sullivan is challenging Amato in a district that President Joe Biden narrowly won in 2020.

District 40

Queens, including Flushing

Candidates: Incumbent Ron Kim (D, WFP), Philip Wang (R, CON)

2020 census demographics: 68.1% Asian, 15.8% Hispanic, 12.1% white, 2.3% Black, 0.5% other, 0.1% Native American

2022 general election results: Kim (D, WFP) 51.1%, Sharon Liao (R, CON) 48.8%

Voter registration: 27,529 active Democrats, 6,949 active Republicans, 15,066 active independents

If 2022 is any indication, Assembly Member Ron Kim may be in for a tough reelection fight this year. He only narrowly won both his primary and general election last cycle as he faces challengers to his right. But he doesn’t seem to be taking any chances this year, fending off a tough campaign from Yi Andy Chen in June to secure the Democratic line. A victory in that race was far from a given with strong fundraising numbers from Chen and some noteworthy endorsements over the incumbent. Kim is now in a good position to take on Republican chiropractor Philip Wang in November.

District 46

Brooklyn, including Bay Ridge and Coney Island

Candidates: Incumbent Alec Brook-Krasny (R, CON), Chris McCreight (D)

2020 census demographics: 57% white, 16.7% Hispanic, 14.1% Asian, 8.6% Black, .7% other

2022 general election results: Brook-Krasny (R, CON) 51.9%, Mathylde Frontus (D, WFP) 47.9%

Voter registration: 36,851 active Democrats, 16,598 active Republicans, 18,784 active independents 

Republican Assembly Member Alec Brook-Krasny reclaimed his old seat in 2022, after leaving the Democratic Party to become a Republican. But he faces a strong challenge from Chris McCreight, who served as chief of staff to Democratic New York City Council Member Justin Brannan. McCreight has lined up an impressive series of endorsements, including U.S. Sen. Chuck Schumer, New York State Attorney General Letitia James and Brooklyn Borough President Antonio Reynoso. Southern Brooklyn has trended toward the right in recent years, but Brannan handily beat Democrat-turned-Republican Ari Kagan in last year’s City Council race, and now McCreight is hoping to repeat his old boss’ strategy.

District 96

Parts of Rockland County, including New City and Haverstraw

Candidates: Patrick Carroll (D, WFP), Ronald Diz (R, CON)

2020 census demographics: 49.4% white, 27% Hispanic, 11.3% Black, 9.1% Asian, 0.7% other

2022 general election results: Kenneth Zebrowski (D) 58.4%, Brett Yagel (R) 41.5%

Voter registration: 42,700 active Democrats, 19,121 active Republicans, 23,477 active independents 

To the surprise of many, Democratic Assembly Member Kenneth Zebrowski announced he wouldn’t run for reelection this year, after serving nine terms in the Legislature. He has since stepped down before the end of his term to take a new job with the lobbying firm Brown & Weinraub. Almost immediately after Zebrowski said he would not run again, Town of Clarkstown Democratic Council Member Patrick Carroll announced his candidacy for the seat. Zebrowski comfortably carried the district in 2022 against Republican challenger and former Pomona Mayor Brett Yagel. But Carroll won’t have the same advantages as he’s competing for an open seat. He’ll face off against Ronald Diz, a former New York City police detective who unsuccessfully ran for the Rockland County Legislature last year.

District 99

Part of Rockland and Orange Counties, including Harriman and Cornwall-on-Hudson

Candidates: Incumbent Chris Eachus (D, WFP), Tom Lapolla (R, CON)

2020 census demographics: 62.5% white, 16.6% Hispanic, 7.5% other, 6.9% Black,  3.3% Asian, 0.1% Native American

2022 general election results: Eachus (D) 50%, Kathryn Luciani (R, CON) 50%

Voter registration: 26,632 active Democrats, 21,878 active Democrats, 17,734 active independents

When former Republican Assembly Member Colin Schmidt decided to run for Congress in 2022, his seat in the state Legislature opened up, sparking a highly contentious general election fight. Democratic Assembly Member Eachus won the open seat by the thinnest of margins, besting Republican Kathryn Luciani by just eight votes. Eachus now enjoys incumbency, but his razor-thin victory last time around surely means he won’t take a reelection for granted, especially since Republican Lee Zeldin carried the district in the 2022 governor’s race. Retired firefighter Tom Lapolla is the GOP pick for the seat.

District 107

Capital Region, including most of Rensselaer County and parts of Washington, Columbia and Albany Counties

Candidates: Incumbent Scott Bendett (R, CON), Chole Pierce (D)

2020 census demographics: 88.1% white, 3.5% Hispanic, 2.1% Asian, 1.6% Black, 0.3% other, 0.2% Native American

2022 general election: Bendett (R, CON) 97.5%

Voter registration: 31,571 active Democrats, 27,363 active Republicans, 29,294 active independents 

This year will be Assembly Member Scott Bendett’s first electoral test after running unopposed last cycle, taking over from now-state Sen. Jake Ashby. Although the district has been reliably Republican for many years, Ashby had some close races, the closest of which was in 2018. First-time candidate Chloe Pierce is now mounting a real challenge to the freshman Bendett, who seems to be taking the race seriously. He notably became the first Republican to cosponsor legislation that would expand health care coverage to undocumented immigrants, a priority for Democrats that has not resonated with most on the right.

District 133

Western New York, including the area south of Rochester

Candidates: Colleen Walsh-Williams (D, WFP), Andrea Bailey (R, CON)

2020 census demographics: 88.9% white, 4% Hispanic, 1.6% Black, 1.1% Asian, 0.3% other, 0.2% Native American

2022 general election results: Marjorie Byrnes (R, CON) 67.5%, Sara Spezzano (D) 32.5%

Voter registration: 23,311 active Democrats, 39,518 active Republicans, 23,254 active independents

Republican Assembly Member Marjorie Byrnes announced in early January that she would not seek reelection, opening up her district to new representation. The seat leans conservative, with a voter enrollment advantage for the GOP, so Republicans may not be in much danger of losing the seat. Byrnes has endorsed Livingston County Clerk Andrea Bailey to replace her. Democrat Colleen Walsh-Williams, who has also received the support of the Working Families Party, will take on Bailey.