New York City Council rematches give candidates a shot at redemption

New York City is no stranger to perennial candidates – the Howie Hawkins and Jimmy McMillans of the world. But there’s also a long history of political rematches; determined candidates making a second – or third or fourth – go at a familiar opponent in the hopes of a different outcome.

In recent years, those rematches have sometimes led to seats flipping, including in the whiplash-inducing contests for the former 22nd Congressional District in Central New York between Republican Rep. Claudia Tenney and Democratic former Rep. Anthony Brindisi. (In 2018, Brindisi ousted Tenney, who won the seat back in 2020.)

In the 11th Congressional District spanning Staten Island and southern Brooklyn, Democratic former Rep. Max Rose tried to pull a similar maneuver after Republican Rep. Nicole Malliotakis unseated him in 2020. Malliotakis ended up winning by an even larger margin against Rose in their 2022 rematch.

While they can be exciting, a handful of rematches between City Council candidates this November might not produce much upheaval. Several races in Queens will see familiar candidates facing off, including Republican Council Member Vickie Paladino and Democrat Tony Avella in the 19th City Council District; Democratic Council Member Sandra Ung and Republican Yu-Ching James Pai in the 20th City Council District; and Democratic Council Member Julie Won and Republican Marvin Jeffcoat in the 26th City Council District.

Among those rematches, the race between Paladino and Avella, who is a former state senator and City Council member, is expected to be the most competitive. Still, these rematches offer incumbents the chance to stand on the records they’ve built over the past two years, while handing challengers the new opportunity to find vulnerabilities in those records.

“Being an incumbent has its advantages in terms of getting your name out there, building relationships for you,” said Democratic consultant Evan Stavisky. “But also, it gives you a record that you’re held against.”

Stavisky said that for the challengers in a rematch, it’s not necessarily about trying to find new issues to highlight or targeting a different set of voters. In November, for example, voter turnout will be a challenge without a marquee race at the top of the ticket.

“You need to make a case to voters as to why the incumbent’s time in office has given their constituents reasons to make a change,” Stavisky said. “And in some cases that’s going to be easier than others.”

The 19th City Council District in northeast Queens is not only the most competitive rematch this November, but one of the more competitive races in general. Despite a Democratic enrollment advantage, Republicans Lee Zeldin and Curtis Sliwa both won the district in their respective 2022 gubernatorial and 2021 mayoral bids.

Avella lost to Paladino by a few hundred votes for the open council seat in 2021. (Avella and Paladino actually faced off before that too, in the 2018 general election for state Sen. John Liu’s seat, in which Liu ran and won as a Democrat, Paladino ran as a Republican and Avella ran as an independent.)

Avella said he never discusses campaign strategy, including whether there are new voters he would try to appeal to this time around – such as moderate Republicans and independents who might be turned off by Paladino’s more inflammatory rhetoric about the migrant crisis, for example.

Though Avella and Paladino were competing for an open seat in 2021, Avella had a sort of incumbent’s advantage at the time as a known entity in the district who represented many of its residents in office for more than a decade. That history also came with an incumbent’s vulnerabilities, which in Avella’s case included problems coalescing Democrats, in part because of his membership in the state Senate Independent Democratic Conference.

But Avella said that unlike in 2021, Paladino has now had two years in office and a record – or as he put it, a lack thereof – to target. “I ran in 2021 because I felt I still have something to offer my community and the city, based upon my experience in government and in the community,” Avella said. “I still feel that way. But now there is the added aspect of this – she has to be replaced,” he said. Paladino’s campaign did not respond to a request for an interview.

In two other rematch elections this year, incumbents Won and Ung said they’re proud to stand on their records. Asked about the advantages of incumbency in a rematch election, Won first began discussing her primary race in June, in which she defeated repeat challenger Hailie Kim. “You have now had a year and a half of helping people,” she said. Jeffcoat, who is now her opponent in the general election, faces an uphill battle in the largely Democratic district; Won beat him by more than 50 percentage points in 2021.

Ung said she is not taking anything for granted in her race against Pai, though she beat him by almost 19 percentage points in 2021. The largely Asian American district has a Democratic enrollment advantage, but also a significant share of independent voters.

Rematches can sometimes lead to surprise upsets and redemption stories, but a lot of the time they produce also-rans. What keeps candidates coming back for more? Some candidates run to win, and others might mount campaigns despite long odds in order to draw attention to an issue or cause, Stavisky said. And for others, could a more than healthy dose of narcissism play a role? He said, “Yeah, of course.”