New York political predictions for 2023

Who could have predicted former Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s fall from power? Well, maybe one of City & State’s panel of political experts – if we’d only given them the chance. We’re not letting that happen again, we’re bringing back political predictions for the year ahead, asking six insiders what they think will happen in 2023. 

In 2020, everyone knew Donovan Richards would get elected Queens borough president, but most were a year early when it came to legalizing marijuana. For 2019, most folks thought Amazon’s HQ2 was a done deal. And for 2018, political consultant Bruce Gyory thought Carl Paladino would mount a political comeback. He was right – just a few years too early. Check out what our soothsayers are seeing in their crystal balls and reading in their tea leaves – we’ll be back same time next year to confirm. 

These answers have been lightly edited.

What will be the biggest issue in Albany this session?

Amelia Adams, consultant with Adams Buckner Advisors: The classification of workers and minimum wage.

Bruce Gyory, Democratic strategist: The twin sleeper issues that could grow into prime importance will be the inequality of health care and the health care gaps in both inner city and rural New York state, and the need to build more affordable housing to deal with the looming affordability gap exacerbated by inflation. The recent media coverage of the plight of safety net hospitals and the need for more housing for working class New Yorkers could be a foreshadowing.

Susan Kang, associate professor of political science and organizer with Democratic Socialists of America: Progressive organizers will be fighting for a strong budget, with important measures like Good Cause and Build Public Renewables included. But will Gov. Kathy Hochul claim a mandate to be conservative following her narrow reelection and loss of Democratic state reps?

Yossi Gestetner, strategist and co-founder of the Orthodox Jewish Public Affairs Council: Washington politics will help influence Albany's focus on issues since New York-based issues caused Democrats to lose the U.S. House. Democratic House Leader Hakeem Jeffries will, through Albany and City Hall policy, work to put Democrats in a better place for November 2024. Keep an eye out for the NY-17-18-19 congressional corridor.

Taína Borreo, consultant The Hayes Initiative: Housing, housing, housing.

Claudia Granados, lobbyist and consultant with The Carnelian Group: Housing – everyone is talking about it and we have to figure out how to build more housing that is affordable for the middle class. Compounding the housing issue is the homelessness crisis that is out of control. To address this issue, they will have to discuss twin issues of crime, which is interlinked with guns on the streets and the mental health crisis.
 

Will Eric Adams’ administration, or other political factors, change the perception of crime running rampant in New York City?

Adams: No, if he’s standing alone. He’s going to need to work closely with Hochul.

Gyory: The huge downstate media market turns the reality of crime, and the derivative perception of fear attending rising crime, into a virtual statewide issue. In turn, that means that Adams’ success or failure in fighting crime will have an outsized impact on public opinion and hence political reality regarding crime.

Kang: Adams will continue to claim that crime is the only pressing issue in New York City, but activists will fight to demand a more holistic view of public safety.

Gestetner: Crime being down relative to the Bad Old Days does not mean that it isn't up in recent years. People will feel it no matter what the governor or mayor say.

Borrero: With a disturbing and continued rise in hate particularly threatening our Jewish, LGBTQ+, and AAPI communities, I don't expect this conversation to go away anytime soon. As a woman of color and of Jewish faith working at an LGBTQ+ owned firm, this hits home – and it's my hope that a continued dialogue will lead to a deeper mutual understanding and progress, but much, MUCH more work needs to be done.

Granados: The Adams administration is unfairly criticized for a lot of the issues of importance with voters; but they fail to recognize he inherited eight years of decline in city government from the last administration. … If leadership doesn’t use the bully pulpit to educate the public on steps they’re taking to address public safety concerns, the direction of the state and approval of elected officials will continue to deteriorate among voters. 

Are you watching any local political race in particular? Expecting any major incumbents to lose?

Adams: Seat hopping from state to city and vice versa. I’m closely watching New York City Council Member Kristin Richardson Jordan. Local electeds have endorsed against her. She’s had extensive local outreach and constituent services. It will ultimately be up to the voters.

Gyory: The calendar of local  races in 2023 is pretty sparse so I am not focusing on any of those races. But I think we should all keep our eyes peeled for any special elections that pop up – especially if they come in swing districts , especially the suburbs of upstate as well as downstate.

Kang: South Brooklyn is an area experiencing many political shakeups. I will be watching Council Member Justin Brannan’s reelection race closely.

Gestetner: The 2023 races that I am watching in New York City and north of the city are bland at this time.

Borrero: I'll be paying close attention to the 17th Congressional District in 2024. After unseating DCCC Chair Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney, Republican Rep.-elect Mike Lawler is effectively running a tough reelection fight from day one in the Democratic-leaning district.

Granados: Brannan’s reelection campaign. He’s vulnerable due to redistricting which is unfortunate because he is exactly the type of Democrat we need more of.  

Council Member Julie Won is another good race to watch as she won the last time by a razor-thin margin. 

Lastly, Richardson Jordan in Harlem won due to ranked-choice voting. I think the Harlem political class is listening closely to voters who want new representation that will represent their values and who will work with developers to bring much needed affordable housing to their district.

Which political up-and-comer will you be watching in 2023?

Adams: There are so many women that are kicking butt! On the state level: state Sen. Michelle Hinchey, who had a tough election in the Hudson Valley. In the city, I’m looking to see what Council Member Rita Joseph does with this next education budget and to Council Member Crystal Hudson as a leader among the progressives.

Gyory: State Sens. Tim Kennedy from western New York, the returning Monica Martinez from Suffolk and Michelle Hinchey from the Mid-Hudson region – and Hinchey’s neighbor, Rep. Pat Ryan.

Kang: Sarahana Shrestha, newly elected Assembly member, democratic socialist representing District 103, who easily won the general election in an area that had a lot of gains for Lee Zeldin.

Gestetner: Council Member Lincoln Restler adapts quickly to realities on the ground; has deep political and activist roots in many different communities, and is a hard worker. Let's see how things play out by him and for him. Oh, and we haven't heard the last of Rep. Mondaire Jones.

Borrero: Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado. While some may argue he's not exactly an "up-and-comer," the way he's gracefully handled coming into this new role under extraordinary circumstances shouldn't be overlooked. Like Hochul, he's now been elected to a full term with the opportunity to make a huge impact.

Granados: Too many to name, but I think Council Member Chi Ossé  has shown a lot of promise. He’s passionate about public service and a pragmatic progressive. He has a lot of runway. 

What will be the biggest political surprise of 2023?

Adams: It wouldn’t be New York politics without a high profile arrest. 

Gyory: If both rising crime and inflation recede, then Hochul’s poll ratings could be rising next year at this time. The litmus test becomes: Will Hochul come to hold and dominate the vital center of the electorate, while holding the support of the left flank of her party? (As measured by progressive voters rather than progressive leaders.)

Kang: Expect more City Council pushback for Adams’ austerity budgets.

Gestetner: What is former Gov. Andrew Cuomo up to and does anyone care? At this point, he’s already faded away, so I'm wondering if he's planning to reappear in some fashion, and if yes, what would that be?

Borrero: With all of the political theater being planned by the incoming House Republican majority, President Biden will come out on top. He now has a strong record of accomplishments to help make his case to the American public as he begins to ramp up the reelection bid. 

Granados: If U.S. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand decides to step down and provides an opportunity for Hochul to appoint someone to finish her term; or if she’s challenged from someone on the left – AOC’s camp. Folks are certainly talking about it in the context of the most recent election.