How our readers’ predictions match up with election results

Our readers voted for who they believed would win in our unscientific polls on the most competitive New York House and state Senate races – and some of their predictions came true despite conflicting with City & State’s prognosis. Readers predicted Democrat Antonio Delgado’s win in Congressional District 19, a race City & State rated as a toss-up, and even foresaw Democrat Max Rose winning in Congressional District 11, an upset that differs from City & State’s prognosis that the race leaned Republican.

But there were a number of elections where readers were overly optimistic about Democrats’ prospects. As one example, 68 percent of our readers thought Liuba Grechen Shirley would beat Rep. Pete King in Congressional District 2, but in the end, she lost by a narrow margin, an outcome that matched City & State’s forecast.

HOUSE RACES:

Congressional District 1

Results:
▉ Lee Zeldin (incumbent): 52.46%
▉ Perry Gershon (D): 45.01%

Readers’ prediction:
▉ Perry Gershon 61%
▉ Lee Zeldin 39%

City & State rating: Likely Republican

Readers got this one wrong, and City & State got it right.

Congressional District 2

Results:
▉ Pete King (incumbent): 52.32%
▉ Liuba Grechen Shirley: 45.84%

Readers’ prediction:
▉ Liuba Grechen Shirley 68%
▉ Pete King 32%

City & State rating: Likely Republican

Readers were overly optimistic about Grechen Shirley’s prospects, but City & State saw that coming.

Congressional District 11

Results:
▉ Max Rose 52.15%
▉ Dan Donovan (incumbent) 46.08%

Readers’ prediction:
▉ Max Rose 60%
▉ Dan Donovan 40%

City & State rating: Leans Republican

The readers predicted this upset, but rating the race as leans Republican was off target.

Congressional District 18

Results:
▉ Sean Patrick Maloney (incumbent) 53.02%
▉ James O’Donnell 43.24%

Readers’ prediction:
▉ Sean Patrick Maloney 89%
▉ James O’Donnell 11%

City & State rating: Likely Democrat

Everyone predicted this – but readers were overly optimistic about Maloney’s margin.

Congressional District 19

Results:
▉ Antonio Delgado 49.26%
▉ John Faso (incumbent) 46.42%

Readers’ prediction:
▉ Antonio Delgado 80%
▉ John Faso 20%

City & State rating: Toss-Up

Readers guessed the winner, but it was fair to call it a toss-up.  

Congressional District 21

Results:
▉ Elise Stefanik (incumbent) 55.91%
▉ Tedra Cobb 41.2%

Readers’ prediction:
▉ Elise Stefanik 57%
▉ Tedra Cobb 43%

City & State rating: Likely Republican

No surprise here – everyone predicted this outcome.

Congressional District 22

Results:
▉ Anthony Brindisi 49.51%
▉ Claudia Tenney (incumbent) 48.97%

Readers’ prediction:
▉ Anthony Brindisi 84%
▉ Claudia Tenney 16%

City & State rating: Toss-up

This race is currently too close to call and nobody is conceding until all of the ballots have been counted – it was fair to rate this one a toss-up.

Congressional District 23

Results:
▉ Tom Reed (incumbent) 53.78%
▉ Tracy Mitrano 43.99%

Readers’ prediction:
▉ Tom Reed 61%
▉ Tracy Mitrano 39%

City & State rating: Likely Republican

This result that didn’t surprise anybody, although readers were more bullish on Reed.

Congressional District 24

Results:
▉ John Katko (incumbent) 52.2%
▉ Dana Balter 46.08%

Readers’ prediction:
▉ John Katko 54%
▉ Dana Balter 46%

City & State rating: Leans Republican

Readers were spot on, and City & State also called this one.

Congressional District 27

Results:
▉ Chris Collins (incumbent) 48.17%
▉ Nate McMurray 47.1%

Readers’ prediction:
▉ Nate McMurray 77%
▉ Chris Collins (incumbent) 24%

City & State rating: Leans Republican

This race still hasn’t been called yet, although Collins is ahead. The readers were off-base here believing McMurray would win easily, while it turned out to be more of a toss-up.

STATE SENATE RACES:

State Senate District 3

Results:
▉ Monica Martinez 50.22%
▉ Dean Murray 47.48%

Readers’ prediction:
▉ Dean Murray 54%
▉ Monica Martinez 46%

City & State rating: Likely Republican

Here, both City & State and our readers called this one wrong.

State Senate District 4

Results:
▉ Phil Boyle (incumbent) 50.39%
▉ Louis D’Amaro 46.7%

Readers’ prediction:
▉ Phil Boyle 66%
▉ Louis D’Amaro 34%

City & State rating: Likely Republican

Nobody was surprised by the final outcome, but it was closer than expected.

State Senate District 5

Results:
▉ James Gaughran 53.23%
▉ Carl Marcellino (incumbent) 44.73%

Readers’ prediction:
▉ James Gaughran 67%
▉ Carl Marcellino 34%

City & State rating: Toss-up

Readers were more optimistic about Gaughran’s support, while City & State was less sure.

State Senate District 6

Results:
▉ Kevin Thomas 49.24%
▉ Kemp Hannon (incumbent) 47.99%

Readers’ prediction:
▉ Kemp Hannon 68%
▉ Kevin Thomas 32%

City & State rating: Likely Republican

Nobody predicted this upset of one of the longest-serving state legislators.  

State Senate District 7

Results:
▉ Anna Kaplan 53.68%
▉ Elaine Phillips (incumbent) 44.53%

Readers’ prediction:
▉ Anna Kaplan 56% 
▉ Elaine Phillips (incumbent) 44%

City & State rating: Toss-up

The readers called this one; the results weren’t as close as City & State’s rating predicted.  

State Senate District 8

Results:
▉ John Brooks (incumbent) 53.01%
▉ Jeff Pravato 44.15%

Readers’ prediction:
▉ John Brooks 55%
▉ Jeff Pravato 45%

City & State rating: Toss-up

Readers believed Brooks would easily keep his seat, and he did.

State Senate District 9

Results:
▉ Todd Kaminsky (incumbent) 60.35%
▉ Francis Becker Jr. 37.51%

Readers’ prediction:
▉ Todd Kaminsky 79%
▉ Francis Becker Jr. 21%

City & State rating: Likely Democrat

We all called this one. Readers picked the winner, but not the margin.

State Senate District 22

Results:
▉ Andrew Gounardes 49.79 %
▉ Martin Golden (incumbent) 47.99 %

Readers’ prediction:
▉ Andrew Gounardes 54%
▉ Martin Golden 46%

City & State rating: Lean Republican

Gounardes has declared victory over his opponent, an eight-term incumbent, but Golden has refused to concede thus far. If Gounardes is the winner, this is another race the readers picked the right winner but City & State predicted the opposite.    

State Senate District 39

Results:
▉ James Skoufis 52.11%
▉ Tom Basile 44.91%

Readers’ prediction:
▉ James Skoufis 70%
▉ Tom Basile 31%

City & State rating: Toss-up

Readers predicted the final outcome – but not the final margin – despite City & State predicting a toss-up.

State Senate District 40

Results:
▉ Peter Harckham 49.86%
▉ Terrence Murphy (incumbent) 48.01%

Readers’ prediction:
▉ Terrence Murphy 54%
▉ Peter Harckham 46%

City & State rating: Likely Republican

City & State and readers were both off.

State Senate District 41

Results:
▉ Sue Serino (incumbent) 49.91%
▉ Karen Smythe 48.02%

Readers’ prediction:
▉ Sue Serino 54%
▉ Karen Smythe 46%

City & State rating: Likely Republican

Smythe has not conceded. Regardless, this was more of a toss-up than expected.

State Senate District 42

Results:
▉ Jen Metzger 50.08%
▉ Ann Rabbitt 47.45%

Readers’ prediction:
▉ Jen Metzger 56%
▉ Ann Rabbitt 44%

City & State rating: Lean Republican

The readers picked the right winner, while City & State got it wrong.

State Senate District 43

Results:
▉ Daphne Jordan 52.14%
▉ Aaron Gladd 44.23%

Readers’ prediction:
▉ Daphne Jordan 51%
▉ Aaron Gladd 49%

City & State rating: Likely Republican

Everyone expected Jordan to win, and she did.

State Senate District 50

Results:
▉ Robert Antonacci 50.42%
▉ John Mannion 47.99%

Readers’ prediction:
▉ Robert Antonacci 56%
▉ John Mannion 44%

City & State rating: Lean Republican

Readers and City & State expected this outcome.