How the State Senate races are shaping up

In August, City & State previewed the battle for the state Senate, a Republican bastion in a solidly Democratic state. But the ground has shifted in some state Senate districts – altering our Election Day landscape as well.

A number of factors are at play. Democrats, boosted by higher turnout, traditionally perform better in presidential elections, while Gov. Andrew Cuomo appears to be making a more concerted effort to support fellow Democrats this cycle.

Meanwhile, Republicans are weathering the presidential candidacy of Donald Trump, who is down by 24 points in New York. The question is whether Trump damages down-ballot candidates or spurs his base to turn out. With polls showing resiliency among GOP congressional incumbents, and in the absence of public state Senate polls, City & State is keeping several GOP veterans – including Carl Marcellino, Kemp Hannon and Bill Larkin – as leaning Republican. Republicans also hope voters will support them as a check on Democratic (and downstate) influence.

Democrats hope federal corruption charges against Nassau County Executive Ed Mangano hurt his fellow Republicans on Long Island. GOP state Sen. Michael Venditto may have to distance himself from his father, Oyster Bay Town Supervisor John Venditto, who was arrested along with Mangano.

Of course, the electoral outcome will be complicated by the breakaway Independent Democratic Conference, which has crossed the aisle to partner with the GOP in recent years. While Republicans were in control at the end of this past legislative session, it’s only due to the IDC and state Sen. Simcha Felder, a Democrat who caucuses with Republicans (and who’s running unopposed this year).

District 7 – Elaine Phillips (R), Adam Haber (D)

The district, with its Democratic enrollment advantage but large number of independent voters, came open when GOP state Sen. Jack Martins ran for Congress. Adam Haber, a businessman and Roslyn school board member who lost to Martins in 2014, has raised over $750,000, while Flower Hill Mayor Elaine Phillips, the GOP candidate, raised nearly $650,000. This race remains a toss-up.

District 8 – John Brooks (D), Michael Venditto (R)

Democrats are targeting the seat after state Sen. Michael Venditto’s father, Oyster Bay Town Supervisor John Venditto, was recently arrested on corruption charges. While it remains to be seen how damaged the younger Venditto will be by his father’s arrest, his re-election is no longer a sure thing – moving this from safely Republican to likely Republican.

District 9 – Todd Kaminsky (D), Chris McGrath (R)

State Sen. Todd Kaminsky’s record as a federal prosecutor could play well as Nassau County is rocked by another corruption scandal. He already beat attorney Chris McGrath in an April special election, and higher turnout expected on Election Day will likely help the Democratic incumbent. Plus, Gov. Andrew Cuomo has made important appearances on behalf of Kaminsky. These developments move this from a toss-up to leaning Democratic.

District 31 – Marisol Alcantara (D)

Marisol Alcantara, a labor organizer, faces token opposition after winning the Democratic nomination. She ran with the backing of incumbent state Sen. Adriano Espaillat, who is poised to replace Rep. Charles Rangel in Congress. Her pledge to caucus with the Independent Democratic Conference complicates matters, moving this seat from safely Democratic to the IDC column.

District 44 – Ali Boak (D), Terrence Murphy (R)

Political consultants from both parties note that GOP state Sen. Terrence Murphy has been campaigning effectively and is likely will be re-elected in his Westchester County and Hudson Valley district in November. Republicans have long held the seat, despite strong challenges, and this year Democratic former Pound Ridge Councilwoman Ali Boak is trailing in fundraising. This moves the race from leans Republican to likely Republican.

District 46 – George Amedore (R), Sara Niccoli (D)

The 46th District has changed hands each cycle since the seat was created in the last round of redistricting – but it’s too close to tell whether Democrats will win it back this year, despite an enrollment advantage. Republican state Sen. George Amedore has a substantial fundraising advantage over Palatine Town Supervisor Sara Niccoli, the Democratic candidate, but campaign cash hasn’t proven definitive in the past. The race remains a toss-up.

District 55 – Rich Funke (R)

Republican state Sen. Richard Funke is guaranteed victory. In a missed opportunity for Senate Democrats, nominee Steve Glickman was kicked off the ballot when a court ruled he failed to meet the residency requirements in the swing district. That moves this from toss-up to safely Republican.

Where they all stand

Safe Republican

Ken LaValle (District 1)

John Flanagan (District 2)

Phil Boyle (District 4)

Martin Golden (District 22)

Andrew Lanza (District 24)

John Bonacic (District 42)

Betty Little (District 45)

Joe Griffo (District 47)

Patricia Ritchie (District 48)

John DeFrancisco (District 50)

Jim Seward (District 51)

Fred Akshar (District 52)

Rich Funke (District 55)

Joe Robach (District 56)

Cathy Young (District 57)

Patrick Gallivan (District 59)

Michael Ranzenhofer (District 61)

Rob Ortt (District 62)

Likely Republican

Tom Croci (District 3)

Michael Venditto (District 8)

Terrence Murphy (District 40)

Hugh Farley* (District 49)

Michael Nozzolio* (District 54)

Lean Republican

Carl Marcellino (District 5)

Kemp Hannon (District 6)

Bill Larkin (District 39)

Sue Serino (District 41)

Kathy Marchione (District 43)

Thomas O’Mara (District 58)

Chris Jacobs (District 60)

Democrat/ Republican

Simcha Felder (District 17)

Safe IDC

Tony Avella (District 11)

Diane Savino (District 23)

Adriano Espaillat* (District 31)

Jeff Klein (District 34)

David Carlucci (District 38)

David Valesky (District 53)

Toss-ups

Jack Martins* (District 7)

George Amedore (District 46)

Leans Democrat

Todd Kaminsky (District 9)

George Latimer (District 37)

Safe Democrat

James Sanders Jr. (District 10)

Mike Gianaris (District 12)

Jose Peralta (District 13)

Leroy Comrie (District 14)

Joe Addabbo (District 15)

Toby Ann Stavisky (District 16)

Martin Dilan (District 18)

Roxanne Persaud (District 19)

Jesse Hamilton (District 20)

Kevin Parker (District 21)

Velmanette Montgomery (District 25)

Daniel Squadron (District 26)

Brad Hoylman (District 27)

Liz Krueger (District 28)

José Serrano (District 29)

Bill Perkins (District 30)

Ruben Diaz Sr. (District 32)

Gustavo Rivera (District 33)

Andrea Stewart-Cousins (District 35)

Ruth Hassell-Thompson** (District 36)

Neil Breslin (District 44)

Tim Kennedy (District 63)

* Not running for re-election

** Resigned