Forecasting the 2016 state Senate races

Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton, both New Yorkers, are dominating the political news, while a number of key congressional seats are up for grabs in New York. But in state politics, the most critical races this year are those that will dictate the outcome of the state Senate, an island of red in a solidly blue state.

Democrats and Republicans are spending millions of dollars and knocking on thousands of doors as they vie for control of the chamber. Their efforts are complicated by the Independent Democratic Conference, a five-member breakaway group that has crossed the aisle to partner with the GOP in recent years. In fact, while Republicans were still in control at the end of this past legislative session, it’s only due to the IDC and state Sen. Simcha Felder, a Democrat who caucuses with Republicans (and who’s running unopposed this year).

State Senate Projections

In City & State’s latest Political Report, we analyzed each state Senate race, identified the most competitive contests and determined which party is likely to win each seat. It’s an early look at how well each party is positioned to win a majority – and our best guess on how everything will shake out in November.

Toss-Ups

District 7 – Elaine Phillips (R), Adam Haber (D)

Republican state Sen. Jack Martins put his seat in play when he announced he would run for Congress this year instead of seeking re-election. Martins easily beat Haber in 2014, even though Democrats have an enrollment advantage in the district. This time around, Haber, a businessman and member of the Roslyn school board, has about $232,000 on hand, while Haber’s opponent, Flower Hill Mayor Elaine Phillips, reported only has about $71,000 in campaign funds. Democrats hope Democratic voter turnout and Trump’s polarizing campaign will ultimately win them the seat, while Republicans hope Martins’ high popularity will result in a GOP victory.

District 9 – Todd Kaminsky (D), Chris McGrath (R)

State Sen. Todd Kaminsky narrowly won the votes needed to replace disgraced former state Senate Majority Leader Dean Skelos, picking up a Long Island seat for Democrats for the first time in years. Kaminsky will again face Chris McGrath, a Republican attorney, in what is expected to be another close race. Democrats believe the presidential election will bring out more Democratic voters and ensure Kaminsky’s second victory, as fewer voters generally show up for special elections. Additionally, Hofstra’s Larry Levy told City & State that Kaminsky, who is Jewish, has been successful in courting the Orthodox community, a crucial voting bloc.

District 46 – George Amedore (R), Sara Niccoli (D)

The 46th District has changed parties each cycle since the seat was created in the last round of redistricting. Democrat Cecilia Tkaczyk, a local farmer, beat GOP businessman George Amedore in 2012, only to lose to him in 2014. Democrats are again trying to capitalize on their enrollment advantage to win the seat back. The race this year has been contentious, especially since Palatine Town Supervisor Sara Niccoli, the Democratic candidate, has blamed Amedore for attacks over her refusal to say the Pledge of Allegiance due to her Quaker faith. In a pivotal district, the race is expected to remain contentious until November.

District 55 – Rich Funke (R), Steve Glickman (D)

Republicans won this seat in 2014 when former TV anchor Rich Funke defeated one-term state Sen. Ted O’Brien, a Democrat. It could be a closer race this time around, but only if there actually is a race. Funke is technically running unopposed, since Democrat Steve Glickman, an entrepreneur, was booted from the contest due to a failure to meet a residency requirement. Glickman, who would enjoy a Democratic voter advantage of about 15,000 in the district if he gets back on the ballot, has said his campaign will appeal the court ruling.

Lean Democrat

District 37 – George Latimer (D), Julie Killian (R)

Democratic State Sen. George Latimer was first elected to the state Senate in 2012 after serving in the Assembly since 2004. Latimer fended off a Republican challenger in 2014, winning by about 5 percent. Latimer currently has a significant fundraising advantage, with more than $240,000 on hand compared with just $30,000 for his rival. Democrats also have a voter enrollment advantage in the district, but Republicans have expressed confidence they can win behind Rye Councilwoman Julie Killian.

Lean Republican

District 5 – Carl Marcellino (R), James Gaughran (D)

State Sen. Carl Marcellino has been in office since 1995, but after eking out narrow victories in the two last election cycles, Democrats see him as vulnerable and are renewing a push to flip the district. Suffolk Water Authority Chairman James Gaughran, the Democratic candidate, has about $81,000 on hand, which he has raised since announcing his bid in May. Marcellino has about $280,000 on hand, has the name recognition that comes with incumbency and has weathered past challengers. Political analysts tell City & State that Marcellino will likely be re-elected unless Donald Trump’s campaign collapses and drags down the ticket.

District 6 – Kemp Hannon (R), Ryan Cronin (D)

Republican State Sen. Kemp Hannon won his race against attorney Ryan Cronin in 2012, 52 percent to 48 percent. The Democrat is again challenging the 14-term state senator, presenting himself has a reformer after the recent arrests and convictions of the state’s legislative leaders. However, Hannon’s long presence in Albany has helped him to rack up more than $500,000 in campaign funds – a daunting obstacle for any challenger. Hofstra University’s Larry Levy notes that Hannon’s previous close races have been in years when Republicans didn’t spend any significant money on the campaign, which will not be the case this year.

District 39 – Bill Larkin (R), Chris Eachus (D)

State Sen. Bill Larkin, an 88-year-old Republican, is making his 14th re-election bid for state Senate. Larkin has come under fire for writing a letter of support for former state Senate Majority Leader Dean Skelos, who was convicted of corruption. That, combined with a growing number of Democratic voters in the district, has made Larkin a target. Additionally, Orange County Legislator Chris Eachus, a Democrat, was largely outspent in his first run against Larkin in 2012, but still received 48 percent of the vote – a narrow loss for challenging an incumbent.

District 40 – Terrence Murphy (R), Andrew Falk (D), Ali Boak (D)

Republican state Sen. Terrence Murphy will have an expensive race against one of two Democrats: former Pound Ridge Councilwoman Ali Boak or lawyer Andrew Falk. The Hudson Valley district is a Senate battleground, though Republicans have maintained control. While Democrats have about 10,000 more registered voters than Republicans do in the district, Democrat Justin Wagner lost to Republican state Sen. Greg Ball in 2010 and to Murphy in 2012. Republicans plan to run on Murphy’s efforts combating the heroin epidemic, and it helps that Murphy did call for Dean Skelos to step down as state Senate majority leader after his arrest on corruption charges.

District 41 – Sue Serino (R), Terry Gipson (D)

Republican State Sen. Serino and her predecessor, Democrat Terry Gipson, are again doing battle. Gipson won the seat in 2012, but in a three-way race that included a Conservative Party candidate who challenged GOP state Sen. Stephen Saland due to his support of same-sex marriage. Gipson then lost the seat by less than 4,000 votes in 2014 in a two-way race with Serino. Democrats have about 69,000 registered voters while Republicans have about 56,000. Democrats hope the presidential election will boost turnout and bring in the votes needed to regain the seat.

District 43 – Kathy Marchione (R), Shaun Francis (D)

State Sen. Kathy Marchione, a Republican who handily won her first re-election bid in 2014, has had a rough year and suffered from some negative publicity. Hoosick Falls residents loudly criticized Marchione for what they call an inadequate or even traitorous response after high PFOA levels were found in the town’s water. Shaun Francis, a union official and a former minor league baseball umpire, is the Democratic challenger, but he will have to pick up votes in a district where Republicans have a voter enrollment advantage – and Marchione has an even more significant edge in campaign fundraising.

District 58 – Tom O’Mara (R), Leslie Danks Burke (D)

Ithaca lawyer Leslie Danks Burke kicked off her campaign to unseat Republican state Sen. Thomas O’Mara with a large fundraising haul and has about $200,000 on hand, although the incumbent has a comfortable lead with $322,000 in his account. O’Mara has held the seat since 2010 and has run unopposed since then. Republicans in the district have nearly 10,000 more active registered voters than Democrats. Incumbents generally have an advantage in elections, but Burke’s significant fundraising abilities and a possibly high Democratic turnout due to the presidential election could make this race competitive.

District 60 – Chris Jacobs (R), Al Coppola (D), Amber Small (D)

Democratic state Sen. Marc Panepinto’s decision not to seek re-election opened the swing district to new candidates from both parties, but Erie County Clerk Chris Jacobs, a Republican, is the early favorite. Panepinto won the seat in 2012 with just a third of the vote in a contest in which former Republican state Sen. Mark Grisanti lost the primary but stayed in the general election on the Independence Party line. Despite a solid Democratic enrollment advantage, political analysts say it may be difficult for a Democrat to win, as Jacobs is highly regarded in the area and has run well county-wide. Additionally, Trump’s popularity could boost Republican candidates on the ticket. Either Amber Small, the executive director of the Parkside Community Association, or former state Sen. Al Coppola will run on the Democratic line. Complicating matters is Kevin Stocker, whose third-party run in 2014 helped Panepinto. He is again petitioning to appear on the ballot in November as candidate on the Conservative Party line and has staged a write-in campaign to help his effort. His petition was short of the required number of signatures needed, though he’s said he will fight the ruling.

Likely Republicans

District 3 – Tom Croci (R), Rick Montano (D), Joseph Fritz (D), John De Vito (D)

Though only in his first term, Republican state Sen. Tom Croci has more than twice the campaign funds on hand as his rivals. In July, three Democratic candidates filed to run in the September primary: former Suffolk County Legislator Rick Montano, activist Joseph Fritz and law school student John De Vito, who is the only one so far to report any fundraising. Political analysts note that Suffolk County leans more conservative than other parts of Long Island, such as Nassau County. Croci is expected to win, but it’s his first re-election bid, when incumbents are often more vulnerable.

District 49 – Jim Tedisco (R), Chad Putman (D)

Republican state Sen. Hugh Farley, who has held this seat since 1977, put it in play when he announced he would not run again. Putman faces an uphill battle, as he has no experience in public office. Tedisco, who is facing real estate agent Christian Klueg in a GOP primary, has the most name recognition of any candidate, having served in the Assembly since 1983. The district also has about 30,000 more registered Republicans than Democrats, and Farley immediately endorsed Tedisco to replace him. Tedisco was first elected to the Assembly in 1982 and has long been known as one of the state Legislature’s more outspoken members.

District 54 – Michael Nozzolio* (R)

Six Republicans and Democrats are seeking to replace Republican state Sen. Michael Nozzolio, who held the seat for 23 years but is retiring after undergoing heart surgery. Among the top Republicans are former Assemblyman Sean Hanna, Canandaigua Supervisor Pam Helming, who won a local designating vote in May, and Lyons Supervisor Brian Manktelow, who finished second. Nozzolio was unopposed in 2014 and Republicans have a voter registration advantage of more than 14,000 over Democrats in the district. Rose town Supervisor Kenan Baldridge is the sole Democrat in the race, but the Republican candidate is expected to win the general election.

Safe IDC

Tony Avella (District 11)

Diane Savino (District 23)

Jeff Klein (District 34)

David Carlucci (District 38)

David Valesky (District 53)

Safe Republican

Ken LaValle (District 1)

John Flanagan (District 2)

Phil Boyle (District 4)

Michael Venditto (District 8)

Martin Golden (District 22)

Andrew Lanza (District 24)

John Bonacic (District 42)

Betty Little (District 45)

Joe Griffo (District 47)

Patricia Ritchie (District 48)

John DeFrancisco (District 50)

Jim Seward (District 51)

Fred Akshar (District 52)

Joe Robach (District 56)

Cathy Young (District 57)

Patrick Gallivan (District 59)

Michael Ranzenhofer (District 61)

Rob Ortt (District 62)

Safe Democrat

James Sanders Jr. (District 10)

Mike Gianaris (District 12)

Jose Peralta (District 13)

Leroy Comrie (District 14)

Joe Addabbo (District 15)

Toby Ann Stavisky (District 16)

Martin Dilan (District 18)

Roxanne Persaud (District 19)

Jesse Hamilton (District 20)

Kevin Parker (District 21)

Velmanette Montgomery (District 25)

Daniel Squadron (District 26)

Brad Hoylman (District 27)

Liz Krueger (District 28)

Jose Serrano (District 29)

Bill Perkins (District 30)

Adriano Espaillat* (District 31)

Ruben Diaz Sr. (District 32)

Gustavo Rivera (District 33)

Andrea Stewart-Cousins (District 35)

Ruth Hassell-Thompson** (District 36)

Neil Breslin (District 44)

Tim Kennedy (District 63)

* Not running for re-election

** Resigned

Correction: The photos for Ryan Cronin and Chad Putman have been corrected.