In most presidential election cycles, the New York primary is a humdrum affair. Republicans and Democrats crown their nominees before New Yorkers get to vote, and local candidates are rarely on the ballot.
This year, it’s different. Donald Trump is still racing to lock up the GOP nod, while his party is bracing for a possible contested convention. Hillary Clinton is the Democratic frontrunner, but Sen. Bernie Sanders is not giving up without a fight. On April 19, New York primary voters will actually have a say in both parties’ presidential picks – in a field packed with current and former New Yorkers.
Even on the state level, the April election could prove to be pivotal: Control of the state Senate is in play, depending on the outcome of the contest to fill the Long Island seat vacated by disgraced former Senate Majority Leader Dean Skelos.
Here’s your essential guide to this month’s Election Day – and a sneak peek on a few fall races.
THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE
The Republicans:
New York polling results (Quinnipiac University Poll, April 12; Marist Poll, April 12; NY1/Baruch College, April 11)
Donald Trump: 55%; 54%; 60%
Ted Cruz: 20%; 21%; 17%
John Kasich: 19%; 18%; 14%
Delegate count:
Trump: 743 delegates
Cruz: 545 delegates
Kasich: 143 delegates
Total delegates needed to clinch the nomination: 1,237
Delegates at stake in New York: 95 delegates (fourth most in the country)
How they’re distributed: Delegates are awarded proportionally, but candidates must get 20 percent to be eligible to win delegates. Additionally, a candidate can hit a winner-take-all threshold by earning a majority of the votes in a congressional district or statewide.
The Democrats:
New York polling results (Quinnipiac, April 12; Marist, April 12; NY1/Baruch, April 11)
Hillary Clinton: 53%; 55%; 50%
Bernie Sanders: 40%; 41%; 37%
Delegate count:
Clinton: 1,756 delegates (1,287 delegates and 469 superdelegates)
Sanders: 1,061 delegates (1,030 delegates and 31 superdelegates)
Total delegates needed to clinch the nomination: 2,383
Delegates at stake in New York: 247 delegates (second most in the country)
How they’re distributed: Pledged delegates are awarded proportionally and are based on primary results. Superdelegates can support any candidate.
THE STATE SENATE
The state Senate is the Republicans’ only bastion of power on a statewide level, and its hold is tenuous. Democrats occupy every statewide office – governor, attorney general, comptroller – and have a 2-to-1 majority in the state Assembly. But Republicans have ensured their political relevance by holding the Senate for decades, apart from a two-year hiatus starting in 2009.
The GOP currently has 31 seats, one short of an outright majority in the 63-seat chamber, and its control hinges on the continued loyalty of state Sen. Simcha Felder, a Brooklyn Democrat caucusing with Republicans, and a power-sharing coalition with state Sen. Jeff Klein’s five-member Independent Democratic Conference.
STATE SENATE DISTRICT 9
One state Senate seat opened last year when Skelos was ousted upon his conviction on corruption charges. If a Democrat fills the Nassau County district in the upcoming special election, the party will steal the majority – at least numerically. If a Republican wins, they’ll stay in control – at least until the fall elections.
The Republican candidate, Chris McGrath, a personal injury attorney, is a political newcomer. That’s unsurprising, given Democrats’ attempts to capitalize on Skelos’ conviction. Democrats found success with the strategy in the recent Nassau County district attorney race.
McGrath’s Democratic rival, Assemblyman Todd Kaminsky, was elected to the state Legislature in 2014. Previously he served as a federal prosecutor, helping take down former state Senate Majority Leader Pedro Espada and other elected officials. Republicans, meanwhile, have sought to link Senate Democrats – and their candidates – to liberal New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio, who is a divisive figure upstate.
Chris McGrath (R)
Total campaign funds on hand: $282,162.91
Total spent: $860,198.70
Polling results (Siena College poll, March 15): 45%
Registered Republicans: 75,594
Todd Kaminsky (D)
Total campaign funds on hand: $296,132.62
Total spent: $850,502.06
Polling results (Siena, March 15): 47%
Registered Democrats: 94,646
THE OTHER RACES:
Democrat Jaime Williams is a lock to win the 59th Assembly District in Brooklyn. Williams is chief of staff to state Sen. Roxanne Persaud, who previously held the Assembly seat. On Staten Island’s South Shore, lawyer Ronald Castorina Jr. is running unopposed and will replace fellow Republican Joe Borelli, who left the Assembly when he was elected to the New York City Council.
The only other contest is also the result of a corruption conviction – in this case, of former Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver. In the race for the lower Manhattan Assembly seat, Alice Cancel won the backing of local Democrats, but she must beat Yuh-Line Niou, the former chief of staff to Assemblyman Ron Kim who has the Working Families Party line and some establishment and union support, as well as Republican Lester Chang.
PREVIEWING THE FALL ELECTIONS
Regardless of who wins the Skelos seat, the battle for the state Senate will rage on into the fall. The common wisdom is that Democrats will perform well, given that presidential races boost turnout, especially among younger and minority voters.
In Skelos’ district and beyond, party officials are already preparing to square off in a number of close contests in November. Here’s an early preview of which races to watch.
District 7: With Republican state Sen. Jack Martins running for Congress, Democrats are eyeing a pickup opportunity in a Long Island district where they have a registration advantage.
District 9: Whoever wins, there’s always a chance of a Kaminsky-McGrath rematch in Nassau County in the fall.
District 39: Republican state Sen. William Larkin has already faced repeated attacks from Democrats, who hope the Hudson Valley lawmaker, who is in his late 80s, decides to retire.
District 46: In an Albany-area district tailor-made for him, GOP businessman George Amedore lost narrowly in 2012 to Cecilia Tkaczyk but won a 2014 rematch. Labor advocate and Palate Town Supervisor Sara Niccoli started fundraising early as Democrats try to retake the seat.
District 60: Democratic state Sen. Marc Panepinto will not run for re-election in his Buffalo-area district amid rumors of staff problems and underage drinking at his home. He won a four-way race in 2014 with a third of the vote, and third-party bids could complicate the outcome again this year.