Politics
Can Andrew Cuomo Avoid a Sophomore Slump?
If Gov. Andrew Cuomo were a student, his first-term performance would have put him near the top of the class.
The governor earned high marks from progressives by legalizing same-sex marriage and enacting a groundbreaking gun control law. At the same time, he kept spending in check and passed a property tax cap, both conservative priorities. He excelled where others failed, cutting deals to quiet potential foes in the healthcare industry and negotiating deftly with legislative leaders. And he got his work done on time, signing four straight on-time state budgets.
But although Cuomo may have been the model student as a freshman, it will be tough to avoid a sophomore slump.
Second-term executives typically have already achieved their biggest victories in their first few years in office, at the height of their popularity. Incumbents run for re-election on their records, not on ambitious new policy goals, and expectations are lower if they win. Over time, key administration staffers grow exhausted, and replacements may not prove to be as effective. As more and more programs and initiatives are launched, the complexity of governing increases—as does the importance of delegating, which insiders say is not Cuomo’s strong suit. And year by year, state lawmakers begin to identify and exploit the governor’s weaknesses.
What it all adds up to is diminishing returns in the Executive Chamber, said Bob Bellafiore, a communications consultant and former aide to George Pataki. “You’ve identified the big things you want to attack, and you’ve attacked them in the beginning, like the governor did with same-sex marriage—that was a big policy win, pulled the rabbit out of a hat— the property tax cap, economic development upstate, funding for Buffalo, last year some big victories on education with teacher evaluations and charter schools,” said Bellafiore, who experienced a second term transition under Pataki. “But as time goes on, you have to be more and more creative in finding those big ticket items.”
In fact, Cuomo’s reputation was already beginning to fray as his first term drew to a close.
One test was the shaky rollout of the Common Core education standards, which gave ammunition to gubernatorial challengers Rob Astorino and Zephyr Teachout despite Cuomo’s efforts to deflect blame. His centrist approach left others feeling disillusioned. His gun control law, applauded in New York City and its suburbs, angered many upstate voters. Liberals grew disenchanted with the governor over his failure to pass the Women’s Equality Act, the Dream Act and public financing of campaigns— while also blaming him for not doing enough to elect Democrats to the state Senate.
This past fall Cuomo won re-election, but his approval rating dropped and he garnered far fewer votes than in 2010. “He’s going to have to find a way to put some polish on the fender here that was lost during the campaign,” said Lawrence Levy, executive dean of Hofstra University’s National Center for Suburban Studies. “He won by 13 points, which most people in most races would consider a substantial margin, but his first four years had set expectations very high and he needs to show that he is ready to be a strong leader and take on some tough problems.”
Still, a sophomore slump is not inevitable. After re-election some politicians focus on consolidating earlier accomplishments, said Bruce Gyory, a Democratic consultant. Instead, Gyory said, Cuomo should aggressively attack remaining problems, such as the state’s crumbling infrastructure and underperforming education system.
“One of the reasons second terms, for both governors and presidents, have tended to fall flat is that governors and presidents haven’t used second terms to tackle big issues,” Gyory said. “There are better results when you continue to put forward major initiatives and tackle big issues.”
AGING INFRASTRUCTURE
One way that Cuomo could regain some momentum early on, experts say, would be to invest the $5.1 billion from bank settlements in critical infrastructure projects across the state. Legislative leaders, editorial boards and budget watchdogs have coalesced around using the windfall for much- needed transportation infrastructure projects. The need for upgrades on aging subway lines in New York City and upstate roads and bridges has been well documented. The ongoing construction of a replacement for the Tappan Zee Bridge, which the Cuomo administration has yet to fully explain how it plans to fully fund, could also get a big chunk of the money.
“There’s also a tremendous econometric bang for the buck, because it not only creates building trades construction jobs, but it injects money into local economies,” Gyory said. “We got a little taste of that with the positive impacts of the shovel-ready projects with Obama stimulus, and in New York it would be a great way to get the second term moving.”
Of course, while the $5.1 billion windfall may seem like a lot, it only goes so far. The new Tappan Zee Bridge will cost $4 billion all by itself and the MTA capital plan has a $15.2 billion deficit over five years—and that’s just the top of the list of infrastructure needs. Other funds will need to be found somewhere, and ideas like congestion pricing in New York City, however unlikely it is to pass given the politics of the proposal, could re-emerge. The administration may also raise tolls on the Tappan Zee, but Cuomo has been reluctant to specify how much tolls might go up to help fund the new span. The bridge project and the MTA will ultimately be competing with each other for scarce dollars—and both will be competing against other priorities like education and healthcare.
“The danger is if the governor is tempted to use some of this windfall settlement money for the bridge to keep toll hikes down, but then that takes away money that should go to the MTA,” said Nicole Gelinas, a senior fellow with the Manhattan Institute. “A lot of the MTA projects can’t pay for themselves, and so more of the windfall projects going to roads and bridges upstate and some of it for the MTA would be a fair, political way to split it.”
EDUCATION REFORM
Education funding, a major portion of the state budget, is a perennial point of contention and one that Cuomo will have to confront for another four years. In addition, even if the Common Core controversy subsides as some expect, there is a long list of public school reforms the governor is considering—which is sure to make education one of the most high-profile and heavily lobbied policy areas in the second term.
Cuomo is poised to push for changes to the state’s teacher evaluation system, and his clash with New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio over charter schools could be revived this year. Another question mark is mayoral control of schools in New York City, which is set to expire in June. Plus, Senate Republicans are again prioritizing the Education Investment Tax Credit, and there has already been talk of stripping the Legislature of its control over appointing members to the Board of Regents.
“If you just had to deal with school aid, that would be sort of a normal policy headache,” said Bellafiore, who works with groups supporting charter schools and the Education Investment Tax Credit. “Let’s consider school aid the beer they have to drink every year, cold or warm. Then you drop into that a shot of charter schools and a shot of mayoral control and pretty soon this drink is going to be pretty potent. So yes, education is going to be a big deal, even without these extra shots.”
While some major education issues will be settled this year, experts predicted that deep disagreements over the state’s education funding formula will not be resolved easily. “The state clearly has issues in delivering education adequately and fairly, and that includes the funding of it, and that’s going to be a major task that nobody has solved, including his father’s predecessors and successors,” Levy said. “We’re still a very segregated education system, with haves and the have-nots beginning to increase in a way that not only could be seen as wrong, but economically dangerous for the state and the communities in which these schools are located.”
A related issue is the local property tax cap, which is also expiring. Some school districts have struggled to deal with the additional constraints on spending, which could make it a tougher task politically to renew the cap in Albany. The tax cap is also intertwined with spending the state requires of school districts, and local officials complain that state government has yet to implement significant measures to ease such spending mandates.
“You can pass a property tax cap on a bumper sticker campaign,” Bellafiore said. “Well, now it goes beyond the bumper stickers and into real operations, not just of the state government but of the local governments that are affected. That has a lot to do with the state’s growth and viability and success.”
THE STATE SENATE
Republicans won outright control of the state Senate this past fall, and they will dictate much of what does and does not get done for the next two years. During his re-election campaign Cuomo called for public financing of elections, the Dream Act and the full, 10-point Women’s Equality Act. But Republican Senate candidates ran against the measures, and will likely let them die. Democrats have also called for changes to the grand jury system after the police officer who killed Eric Garner with an illegal chokehold was not indicted. Senate Republicans have dismissed such concerns, and instead will focus on protecting police officers, citing the recent murder of two NYPD officers.
“If he’s going to focus on the one piece of the Women’s Equality Agenda that the Senate Republicans objected to, and if it’s an all or nothing approach, that will continue to fail,” said John McArdle, a political consultant who worked for the Senate Republicans for years. “If he continues to focus on, as he did in the first two years, some of the issues like the state’s economy, he got the tax cap adopted, the bread and butter issues, keeping the budget within the affordability range in terms of spending, he’ll have more success.”
Some progressives are biding their time and banking on Democrats re-taking control of the upper chamber in two years, which would remove Republicans from the negotiating table entirely. But even though Republicans have made clear that they oppose public financing and other proposed ethics reform, the issue of public corruption is unlikely to fade away, said Jeanne Zaino, a political science professor at Iona College.
“I’m not sure that many people, particularly on the left, feel that he did an adequate job addressing it,” Zaino said of Cuomo’s efforts to combat public corruption. “That’s going to be a continuing issue: how does he go about trying to ‘clean up Albany,’ particularly after the Moreland debacle? In my mind, that’s a huge challenge for him, both from a perception standpoint and a reality standpoint.”
UNEXPECTED DEVELOPMENTS
As always, there are events that simply cannot be planned for. Natural disasters, terrorist attacks, disease outbreaks, prison riots, corruption scandals, bankruptcies, shootings, deaths—they can come at any time, and without any notice. President George W. Bush was panned for his response to Hurricane Katrina. President Barack Obama’s response to the BP oil spill was seen as lackluster. Closer to home, in the wake of the Eric Garner case and the shooting deaths of two police officers, New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio is now struggling to control a deeply dissatisfied police department.
“Recognize Lincoln’s old admonition—that I have not controlled events, events have controlled me—is accurate,” Gyory said. “Regardless of the term, you have to be ready to react to major events that you can’t predict.”
Cuomo has a track record of reacting quickly and decisively to unexpected events, from Superstorm Sandy and Tropical Storm Irene to the recent blizzard in Buffalo. The governor’s strengths are the nuts and bolts of governing, observers say, which has proven to be an asset when storms or other crises strike. The exception may be U.S. Attorney Preet Bharara’s probe of the governor’s involvement in the Moreland Commission, and it is unclear so far how the scandal will ultimately play out.
“He has a good track record of making his entire administration pivot to the crisis,” Gyory said. “That’s a governing art. That’s not easy or automatic thing to do. He doesn’t just come in and do airport press conferences. It’s boots on the ground. He stayed in Buffalo that whole week. He was on Long Island in and New York after Sandy, and after Irene he was in the upper Hudson. He keeps his own boots on the ground while he deploys his administration’s boots on the ground.”
PRESIDENTIAL AMBITIONS
Hillary Clinton, the former first lady, U.S. senator and secretary of state, is widely expected to run for president in 2016, blocking any chance that Gov. Andrew Cuomo, a longtime ally of the Clintons, gets into the race. But if she opts not to run, Cuomo would instantly become one of the Democratic frontrunners. Or, if Clinton runs and loses to a Republican, the conversation would immediately turn to Cuomo 2020.
“Even now he’s on the short list of four or five top Democratic contenders, after Hillary Clinton, obviously, and so I think he absolutely would, even barring something unforeseen in the intervening years,” Zaino said. “It’s clear that, unlike his father, he really does have ambitions to potentially move in that direction—not in the short term, necessarily, but in the long term.”
Some observers question the common wisdom that Cuomo wants to seek higher office, noting that his push for the SAFE Act, the landmark gun control law, and the hydrofracking ban would not play well in battleground states like Ohio and Pennsylvania. But if Cuomo is angling for a shot at the presidency, it will undoubtedly shape his second term and potentially a third term as well—but shifting away from the dogged focus on New York that he had in his first term could prove to be a liability. He is already planning to travel overseas more, perhaps burnishing his foreign affairs credentials, and his legislative priorities could quickly pivot to a more national focus.
“That’s going to be real challenge for him,” Zaino said. “It’s always difficult, speaking of second terms, to have designs on higher office and do the job that you’re elected to do at the same time. I’m wondering if that’s going to take him off track if he thinks about things like Democratic primaries—I’m not saying necessarily 2016, but beyond, with the Democratic Party changing as it is, where is he going to fit in that changing reality? I guess he’ll probably try to still pass some more liberal social issues and continue on his more conservative economic agenda. But it’s a tightrope for somebody to walk.”
NEXT STORY: Bridging the Divide