Avella v. Liu: Much More Than Identity Politics At Play

The 30,000-foot view of the state senate primary between incumbent Tony Avella, a member of the five-person Independent Democratic Conference, and former New York City Comptroller John Liu, who has pledged to caucus with the mainline Democrats, is that while Liu has great name recognition in the Asian community there are not enough registered Democrats who are Asian in the district for him to win the seat.

However, while a simple breakdown of the numbers backs up that argument, it paints an incomplete picture. Roughly half of the district’s registered Democrats are white, whereas the other half is made up of a mix of East Asians, South Asians and Central Asians, as well as black, Jewish and Latino voters.

Liu's strategy has been to try to appeal to all the various minority groups, as well as progressive white voters, while attempting to tie Avella to Republicans because of his decision to join the IDC in February. For Avella, defending his liberal credentials is something new. His voting record is consistent with most Democrats, but the Liu campaign has been pressing hard to make the case that by joining the IDC Avella is standing in the way of a progressive agenda.

Avella's campaign has been focusing on getting out the vote from people who have supported him in the past in communities like Whitestone, Little Neck and Douglaston. He has been holding many hyper local campaign events, from presenting funding to the Dwarf Giraffe Athletic League to holding an event calling on the owners of a shopping center to clean up the facility and pushing for improvements to bad and dangerous roads. 

Liu has taken a different tack, pressing the flesh at high traffic areas like the 7 line’s Main Street subway stop or the bus routes nearby, which is not actually in the district. On the surface, that may seem like an odd strategy, but the area is a traffic hub for thousands of residents who live in Northern and Eastern Queens.

History suggests voter turnout will be around 20,000 in the district. The contest has been relatively high profile, which could mean an uptick in that number, but on the flip side, primary elections the year after New York City mayoral elections tend to bring out fewer voters than average.

If Liu unseats Avella his victory could be a blow to the Independent Democratic Conference's efforts to recruit new members. Democrats on the fence about making the switch may think twice knowing that a pro-labor progressive was able to effectively link the IDC to Republicans.

An Avella win would be another huge setback for John Liu, who many once speculated could be the city's first Asian-American mayor following his election citywide to comptroller in 2007. Liu ended up finishing a distant fourth in the 2013 mayoral primary, collecting only 7 percent of the vote after he was denied matching funds by the city's Campaign Finance Board, following his former campaign treasurer’s conviction for campaign finance violations.