The C&S Political Report: The Shifting State Senate Landscape

Likely Republican

MARTIN GOLDEN (R)

Golden, one of few New York City Republicans in elected office, dodged a bullet when City Councilman Vincent Gentile decided not to challenge him for his old seat. Golden, who was re-elected in 2012 with 57.7 percent of the vote, is in a strong position with $422,000 in campaign funds, while his opponent, Bay Ridge Democrats Executive Director James Kemmerer, has a paltry $7,507.

WILLIAM LARKIN (R)

Larkin’s district has more active Democratic voters than Republican and Conservative voters combined, but the longtime incumbent was re-elected again in 2012 with 52.3 percent of the vote. This cycle his Democratic opponent is Newburgh City Councilwoman Gay Lee, who had yet to submit her campaign filing at the time this article went to press.

TOM LIBOUS (R)

Libous’ seat was considered safe until the No. 2 Senate Republican was indicted on federal charges of lying to the F.B.I. about allegedly helping his son, Matthew, who was also indicted, land a lucrative law firm job. Libous, who denies any wrongdoing, faces a primary challenge from businessman Denver Jones and a general election battle against Anndrea Starzak, a former Vestal town supervisor. However, the district is solidly Republican, and the longtime incumbent has been popular with his Binghamton area constituents.

Lean Republican

CARL MARCELLINO (R)

Marcellino, one of a handful of Long Island Republicans targeted by Democrats, could face a tougher challenge than usual this year. Sea Cliff Mayor Bruce Kennedy, a Republican, had filed to run against Democratic Assemblyman Charles Lavine. But after the local Conservative Party declined to endorse Kennedy, citing his role in officiating two same-sex marriages, he blasted Marcellino for a lack of support and switched races to run against him as a Democrat. Marcellino was re-elected with nearly 60 percent of the vote in 2012, and he has $282,484 in campaign funds compared with about $21,000 in Kennedy’s Assembly account.

KEMP HANNON (R)

Hannon, a longtime incumbent who won with 52 percent of the vote in 2012, is among the Long Island lawmakers in recent cycles to be consistently targeted by Democrats, who see an opportunity to capitalize on the changing demographics of his district. The decision by the healthcare workers’ union, 1199 SEIU, to back only Democratic candidates for the state Senate this year could hurt Hannon, the chair of the Senate Health Committee. But Hannon is sitting on more than half a million dollars, while his Democratic foe, lawyer and former Marine Ethan Irwin, has just under $70,000 in the bank.

62nd SENATE DISTRICT (R)

State Sen. George Maziarz’s seat became competitive when the No. 3 Republican announced that he would not seek re-election amid a federal probe into his campaign spending (Maziarz denies any connection between his decision not to run and the investigation). North Tonawanda Mayor Robert Ortt, a military veteran, will take Maziarz’s place on the ballot, but will face gun rights activist Gia Arnold in a GOP primary and a November battle against Niagara Falls School Board Member Johnny Destino, a Republican turned Democrat who was trounced by Maziarz in 2012. The district has a slight Democratic edge among active voters, but Ortt could overcome that disadvantage with the Conservative and Independence party lines.

PHIL BOYLE (R)

Boyle, who represents part of Suffolk County, won re-election with 52.6 percent of the vote in 2012 but will likely have one of the safer Republican seats on Long Island this year. Petitions were filed for someone named John Alberts to run on the Democratic line against Boyle, although no campaign contribution filing was made under that name as of press time. Boyle has $90,000 in campaign funds.

Toss-Up

40TH SENATE DISTRICT (R)

State Sen. Greg Ball’s decision earlier this year not to run for re-election makes this Hudson Valley contest a toss-up. In 2012 Ball beat Democrat Justin Wagner with just 51 percent of the vote, and Wagner, who now has nearly $220,000 on hand, has been working hard to win this time around. The Democrat will face either Yorktown Councilman Terrence Murphy (Ball’s preferred successor) or former assemblyman Bob Castelli, who will square off in a GOP primary.

3rd SENATE DISTRICT (R)

Republican state Sen. Lee Zeldin’s decision to challenge Democrat Rep. Tim Bishop created one of two open GOP seats on Long Island. Zeldin’s Suffolk County seat may be slightly less vulnerable for Republicans than the one vacated by Charles Fuschillo, but it is still a toss-up. Anthony Senft, a councilman on the Islip Town Board and a registered member of the Conservative Party, was the Suffolk Republicans’ designated candidate for the seat, but he stepped aside at the last minute and was replaced by Islip Town Supervisor Tom Croci, an accomplished Navy veteran. He will likely face Democrat Adrienne Esposito, an environmentalist and the executive director of the Citizens Campaign for the Environment, but she must first beat attorney and Democratic activist Joseph Fritz. Esposito has $130,000 on hand, while Croci has a little over $100,000 in his supervisor campaign account.

CECILIA TKACZYK (D)

State Sen. Cecilia Tkaczyk and former assemblyman George Amedore are squaring off in a rematch two years after she defeated Amedore by just 18 votes in a surprise come-from-behind victory in the Capital Region–Hudson Valley district, which was added in the last round of redistricting and widely purported to have been custom-made for an Amedore candidacy. As of the most recent filing Tkaczyk had $236,000 in campaign funds, while Amedore reported $142,000.

MARK GRISANTI (R)

Grisanti was narrowly re-elected in 2012 with 50.2 percent of the vote in a three-way race against a Democrat and a Conservative Party candidate. This year the general election field could prove strikingly similar. Grisanti faces attorney Kevin Stocker in a Republican primary rematch. Attorney Marc Panepinto, likely the most formidable challenger, is the Democratic establishment candidate, but he must also beat former state Sen. Alfred Coppola. Complicating matters further is the Conservative Party candidacy of attorney Timothy Gallagher. Grisanti, who will have the Independence Party line, has nearly $150,000 in the bank, in addition to the $150,000 he spent over the past year. Panepinto has about $164,000 on hand.

JACK MARTINS (R)

Martins will face businessman Adam Haber, who last fall lost the Democratic primary for Nassau County executive. Four in ten active voters in the district are Democrats, while Republicans number just 31 percent. But Martins, who won re-election in 2012 with 51.8 percent of the vote, had $285,000 in campaign funds in January, and Republicans say he is a strong campaigner. Haber, who loaned himself $1 million for his county executive run, has already donated nearly $80,000 to his campaign and has more than $209,000 on hand.

SIMCHA FELDER (D/R)

The Brooklyn Democrat defected to the GOP shortly after getting elected in 2012. He is in a strong position to win re-election this year, although some observers speculate that he will join whichever conference gives him more power—and he himself has said that he will do whatever is best for his constituents. With the Senate Democrats appearing increasingly likely to retake the majority, look for Felder to follow the IDC’s lead after Election Day.

8th SENATE DISTRICT (R)

When Republican state Sen. Charles Fuschillo resigned at the end of 2013, he created an open seat in a district straddling Nassau and Suffolk counties that will be a fiercely contested battleground. While he was in office, the popular Fuschillo—he won with 59 percent of the vote in 2012— had made holding the seat easy for Republicans despite a registration disadvantage, but now Nassau County Legislator Michael Venditto will have his hands full fending off the Democratic nominee, whether it is fellow Nassau County Legislator David Denenberg or Freeport Deputy Mayor Carmen Piñeyro. Venditto, 32, enjoys strong name recognition as the son of longtime Oyster Bay Town Supervisor John Venditto. Both Denenberg and Venditto have raised well over $200,000.

TERRY GIPSON (D)

State Sen. Terry Gipson came into office by winning a three-way race in 2012 with just 43.8 percent of the vote. The Republican incumbent, Stephen Saland, was hurt by his vote for same-sex marriage and by the Conservative Party candidacy of Neil DiCarlo in the general election. Now Republicans are eager to win back the seat, and the exits of several candidates have paved the way for Dutchess County Legislator Sue Serino, who will also have the Conservative and Independence lines. Gipson has amassed an impressive $345,000, while Serino has close to $100,000.

TED O’BRIEN (D)

In 2012 Ted O’Brien came from behind to beat former Republican assemblyman Sean Hanna with 52 percent of the vote. The Republican nominee this time around is Richard Funke, a retired television newscaster in Rochester with high name recognition. Still, Funke’s campaign got off to a rough start when he fired a communications aide who was exposed for having been convicted of soliciting a prostitute. O’Brien has slightly more than $200,000, while Funke has nearly $82,000.

Lean Democrat

GEORGE LATIMER (D)

Latimer gave up his Assembly seat to run for the state Senate in 2012 and beat Republican businessman Bob Cohen in a closely watched race with a comfortable 54.1 percent of the vote. Cohen declined to run again this year, and former Yonkers mayor John Spencer also was recruited by the GOP but ultimately took a pass. Local Republicans scrambled at the last minute to recruit Joseph Dillon, a communications and political consultant who will have to play catch-up to match the fundraising of Latimer, who has $115,000 in the bank.

Likely Democrat

JOSEPH ADDABBO JR. (D)

Addabbo held on to his Queens district with a surprisingly large 57.6 percent share of the vote in 2012 after a spirited challenge from Republican Eric Ulrich, who has since been re-elected to the New York City Council. Petitions were circulated for the GOP’s Tom Ognibene, a former councilman and lieutenant governor candidate, but he stepped aside for little-known attorney Ken Sullivan. Addabbo has $53,000 in campaign funds. UPDATE: Senate Republicans announced Monday that their candidate is Michael Conigliaro, the manager of a real estate law firm.