PRIMARY PREVIEW: A Look At The Top Congressional Primaries In New York

New York's 2014 congressional primary day is finally here after months (if not years) of campaigning, fundraising and of course mudslinging. City & State's political team has delved into the four most contentious intra-party contests in the state and pulled out three critical story lines to follow in each of them.

No one will know who is going to win these races until the polls close tonight (if then), but in the meantime here's the lowdown on all of the respective candidates in NY-1, NY-13, NY-21 and NY-22 and their potential paths to victory.

NY1: GOP Nomination Up for Grabs in Long Island Battle

The Republican Party is once again looking to topple Rep. Tim Bishop, a Long Island Democrat, and in today’s primary election in New York’s 1^st congressional district GOP voters will choose between state Sen. Lee Zeldin and lawyer and former SEC prosecutor George Demos to decide who will challenge the incumbent.

Bishop, who has been in office since 2003, is seen as vulnerable by some observers as a result of an unresolved congressional ethics investigation into a donation one of his previous campaigns solicited from a hedge fund investor shortly after the congressman assisted him with a family matter. But only one of the Republican candidates will have the opportunity to run against the incumbent on a major party line this fall. Here are three things to watch in the race during today’s election:

1. Name recognition

Zeldin may have the higher name recognition of the two candidates, given that he was elected as a state senator in 2010 and reelected in 2012. But one question mark is how far the Zeldin name extends beyond his home district, which overlaps with Bishop’s congressional district and includes Brookhaven, parts of Ronkonkoma and Hauppauge and several other communities on the south shore of Suffolk County. How well Zeldin performs on his home turf—where he won over 41,000 votes in 2010 and over 52,000 in 2012—and how Demos fares in the other parts of the much larger congressional district are key factors in the race.

However, in a typically low turnout primary election, it will not take many votes to win. In the 2012 Republican primary for the 1^st Congressional District, Randy Altschuler won with just 7,394 votes before losing to Bishop in the general election. Altschuler’s primary opponent? Demos, who garnered just 1,166 votes.

2. Money matters

The two GOP candidates have been spending heavily to get out their message and build up that name recognition. Demos has raised nearly $2.3 million—the bulk of it from a $2 million loan to himself—compared with Zeldin’s $734,592, mostly from individual contributions. Several outside groups have also waded into the race, spending hundreds of thousands of dollars on both sides, a sign that the primary is expected to be close.

The pitched battle on Long Island may also reflect divisions among high profile in-state Republicans. Demos was endorsed by former Gov. George Pataki and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, while Zeldin has the backing of the local Republican and Conservative parties, as well as the state GOP. 

3. The aftermath

The primary battle could end up helping Bishop if the eventual Republican nominee ends up weakened, whether through depleted funds, ongoing divisions between different factions or the long-lasting effects of all of the mudslinging in the race.  

Advertisements run by the Demos campaign have made the dubious allegation that Zeldin supported Obamacare, while Zeldin campaign ads have accused Demos of funding his candidacy by marrying into a wealthy family close to Rep. Nancy Pelosi, the Democratic House minority leader. However, party officials insist that the two sides will reconcile after Election Day and redouble their efforts to oust Bishop, who is once again a national target for the party.

- Jon Lentz

NY13:  End of an Era or Continuation of a Dynasty?

Primary day is upon us, and the eyes of the political observers, pundits and junkies in New York City are fixed on upper Manhattan (and parts of the Bronx), where Rep. Charles Rangel is clinging to his political life against a familiar foe, state Sen. Adriano Espaillat. 

The primary campaign—both Rangel and Espaillat are Democrats—has been characterized by mudslinging nastiness, sniping over poll numbers, and entertaining (if somewhat superficial) debates, but the underlying story of this race is less the shifting demographics of the district, and more the potential for a classic "changing of the guard."

Rangel is the third-longest serving member of the House of Representatives, an institution in his own right, who has brought billions of federal dollars to the city, and is one of the city's remaining vestiges of the “Harlem Clubhouse”—a group of black political leaders that rose to power after the Civil Rights movement of the 1960s. Espaillat is the political darling of a rapidly growing Hispanic electorate, a native of the Dominican Republic who has represented sections of upper Manhattan since 1996—first in the state Assembly and later the Senate—and who came within 1,000 votes of defeating Rangel in 2012.

In addition to their contentious head-to-head matchup, both candidates also have to grapple with the prospect of a spoiler candidate eating into their respective voter base—in Rangel’s case, Rev. Michael Walrond, a popular African-American pastor in Harlem; and in Espaillat’s, Yolanda Garcia, a Bronx community activist, who is a Latina.

Since City & State is not in the prediction business, we will hold off on looking into our crystal ball, and instead highlight three interesting storylines to watch in today’s primary:

1. CHARLIE VS. CHANGE

While Rangel's reputation and endurance as one of the liberal lions of the House lends this race an added layer of intrigue, this race will have little overall impact on Washington politics, unlike, say former House majority leader Eric Cantor's recent shocking defeat in Virginia. Democrats are firmly in the minority in the House, and the winner of this primary will likely face only token, if any, Republican opposition in the general election.

The last time Rangel and Espaillat faced off in 2012 Rangel was arguably at his weakest, both politically and physically, but he has campaigned spryly this time around, scoffing at the notion that, at 84, he has little left in the tank. While he can lay claim to fewer legislative accomplishments than in the past, Rangel’s name continues to carry significant weight, especially among black voters, even in the wake of his 2010 censure and the loss of his powerful Ways and Means Committee chairmanship two years ago. Since then he has largely dodged controversy, and has managed to hold on to some of his establishment support, as the endorsements of former President Bill Clinton, Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, and Gov. Andrew Cuomo demonstrate.

Espaillat, on the other hand has a lot more to prove. He fancies himself a power broker and vote mover of a surging Dominican population in Upper Manhattan, a reputation that has made him some powerful friends in city and state politics despite a light legislative record with no signature achievement of note. Those relationships, however, have won him the endorsements of several key political figures in Rangel’s district, including City Council Speaker Melissa Mark-Viverito and Assemblyman Robert Rodriguez, and Espaillat has played up his place in history as the would-be first Dominican-born member of Congress to galvanize his base around his campaign. 

2. RACIAL POLITICS & TURNOUT

Espaillat is fond of playing up his Dominican roots, but for him to really make a dent in Rangel’s numbers, he will have to win significant portions of the African-American and white vote as well—two groups with whom Espaillat’s message has appeared not to resonate, according to public polling. The most recent Siena College/NY1 poll showed Rangel holding a 13-point advantage over Espaillat overall, 47 to 34 percent, and expanding his lead or pulling ahead among black and white voters. The same poll found Espaillat affirming his status as the top choice of Hispanic voters, with a 27-point lead over Rangel among likely Latino voters. 

Some pundits have noted that Rangel has historically fared decently with the Puerto Rican voters in his district, especially in East Harlem (Rangel is half Puerto Rican), and that Rangel has significantly more crossover appeal than Espaillat, who has struggled among black voters. Rangel, however, did lose a significant portion of his base to redistricting, especially Upper West Side white voters. Moreover, the relatively new population of “gentrifiers” in neighborhoods such as Inwood and the Bronx portion of the district do not have the same familiarity with him. 

“There are a lot of African-Americans who want to see someone other than Rangel, but I don’t know if Adriano has effectively made a case for why he should be the successor, and I don’t think they know him well enough,” said Basil Smikle, a Harlem-based political consultant. “Before two years ago when Adriano ran, he was pretty much unknown to a good chunk of the district and while he’s been courting relationships among the African-American leadership in the state Assembly and the Senate, he has not really done so on the ground with the institutions and the voters. He’s had a lot more ground to make up in a shorter period of time.”

Turnout will surely play a huge role in the final outcome, and most election observers agree that this year's voting numbers are likely to be relatively the same as in 2012, given the odd timing of the primary (in late June, when many people are out of town). If that indeed turns out to be the case, the candidates’ ground games could prove to be the difference in this contest. Rangel has the support of SEIU 1199, a union with a reputable get-out-the-vote operation and thousands of members in the district. Espaillat has the United Federation of Teachers’ endorsement, as well as the Working Families Party, both organizations that historically have pounded the pavement with relative success.

While it is unlikely that the higher profile elected officials who have endorsed Rangel will join him on the stump, today is a true litmus test for Mark-Viverito’s and Rodriguez’s effectiveness as vote movers. Both politicians have bases of support, but Mark-Viverito has never won her Council races by wide margins, and is largely a power broker by virtue of her position in city government and her unwavering support from Mayor Bill de Blasio. If Mark-Viverito can sway some of her East Harlem district for Espaillat, her star will rise even further.

3. POTENTIAL SPOILERS?

It would be a major upset to see either Rev. Walrond or Yolanda Garcia win this race—or even break double digits percentage-wise—but is there a possibility that either will siphon away a game-changing number of votes from Rangel and Espaillat, respectively?

The prevailing notion among political observers and experts is that Walrond is much more likely to affect Rangel, than Garcia will impact Espaillat, as the pastor is reasonably popular and has run a decent campaign. Garcia has been largely a nonentity in the race and reportedly has rarely been seen out on the campaign trail.

However, while Walrond has support among black voters in the district, largely from his congregation, his slice of the black vote is one that many believe is not likely to vote for Rangel anyway, which would seem to undermine the theory that Walrond will draw votes away from the incumbent. Walrond’s success will depend upon whether he can turn out some of the newer black voters in the district who do not have a connection to Rangel, a feat that former congressional candidate Clyde Williams tried to accomplish in 2012, but was not able to do effectively enough to make a significant dent in Rangel's numbers.

- Nick Powell

NY21: Stefanik, Doheny Republican primary could come down to the wire

The Republican primary between the Wall Street insider and the Washington insider is happening far from either place—and in one of the most geographically and politically diverse congressional districts in the state to boot.

The Republican line for the 21st congressional district race this November is up for grabs today with Elise Stefanik (portrayed as the Washington insider) and now three-time candidate for the seat Matt Doheny (painted as the Wall Street insider) duking it out. At stake is more than just a chance to take on Democrat Aaron Woolf and Green Party candidate Matt Funicello, since the winner of this primary is likely to be considered the favorite to represent the district.

Money might be the strongest indicator of what’s at stake in the primary. Doheny has out-spent Stefanik $599,975 to $474,652 and has also taken in more money than his challenger. But Stefanik has far less debt and has received far more PAC money than Doheny. The PAC money has become a point of attack from both Doheny and Woolf, though how voters feel about the outside money likely will be revealed only after all the votes are counted tonight and in November.

But it’s more than just money that will decide the primary. Here are three things to know as voters head to the polls:

1. A play up the middle might be the winning one

The incumbent, Democratic Rep. Bill Owens, who is retiring, has won by the skin of his teeth all three times he has run for the 21st District, which covers a wide swath of conservative country. Active Republican enrollment in the district is 170,047, while Democratic enrollment is 116,370.

Those numbers combined with Owens’ victories show that while Republicans hold an obvious advantage, voters in the NY-21tend to be more moderate, forcing general election candidates to campaign hard in swing-vote areas. In the primary, the candidate viewed as more down the middle may very well come away the victor.

Stefanik and Doheny have been fairly similar in their federal policy stances, with neither supporting Obamacare or the Common Core standards and both backing gun rights and medical marijuana. Two areas they differed on in a recent debate are the so-called rooftop highway, a proposed highway between Watertown and Plattsburgh, and border security, both of which residents of Clinton, Franklin and St. Lawrence counties in particular pay close attention to.

Doheny is in favor of the highway; Stefanik is not. Doheny thinks border security is a bit too tight; Stefank thinks there’s a good balance.

2) There’s no place like home

Because NY-21 is geographically the largest congressional district east of the Mississippi River, candidates have had to cover hundreds of miles in search of support. But there’s something to be said about winning one’s home county or group of counties. Without it, a tight election could turn into a landslide.

In the last two general elections, Owens, of Plattsburgh, won Clinton, Essex and Franklin counties, undoubtedly helping push him just past Doheny. He was also helped by the fact that Doheny, of Watertown, struggled in his home area of Jefferson, St. Lawrence and Lewis counties, barely winning Jefferson and Lewis in 2012. The overall results were far closer in 2010, when Doheny did better in Jefferson, Lewis, Madison, Oswego and parts of Oneida counties, though he still lost.

The primary presents another east-west split, with Doheny hailing from the western part of the district and Stefanik coming from the eastern portion along Lake Champlain.

3) It ain’t over when it’s over

The Republican primary is likely only the first round of the Stefanik-Doheny battle. Both candidates have third-party backing that will enable them to make the ballot in November, win or lose tonight. Stefanik received support from the state Conservative Party in April, and Doheny received the Independence Party’s support in February.

There is some precedence in the district for third-party support meaning more than just a few thousand extra votes. During the 23rd District—later redistricted to become the 21st—special election in 2009, Doug Hoffman, backed by the Conservative Party, far outpaced Republican candidate Dede Scozzafava.

However, it was two-party support—that of the Democratic and Independence parties—that sent Owens to Congress for his first term. Without the third party, Owens would have been defeated by roughly 3,000 votes.

— Matthew Hamilton

NY22: Conservative Tenney aims to make moderate Republican Rep. Hanna into next Cantor

Assemblywoman Claudia Tenney is challenging Rep. Richard Hanna for the 22nd Congressional District seat. In the Republican primary, Tenney has touted her conservative views and Tea Party background while Hanna, who has held the seat since 2011, has defended his relatively moderate Republican views as being more “productive” for the state and his constituents.

1. Political differences

Rep. Richard Hanna is ranked by The National Journal as the third most moderate Republican in Congress. His opponent, Assemblywoman Claudia Tenney, by contrast, is endorsed by local and national Tea Party groups, as well as conservative former GOP presidential candidate Rick Santorum. Tenney’s hope is to pull off an upset victory similar to Tea Party activist David Brat’s shocking defeat of House Majority Leader Eric Cantor last week. Tenney has repeatedly knocked Hanna for not being conservative enough, while Hanna has defended his record, telling The Post-Standard that he is the most productive member of Congress.

2. Primary importance

Hanna also has the Independence Party line and thus would be able to run again in November if he loses in the Republican primary, although it is not clear if he would do so. If Hanna wins on Tuesday, he will not face a major party opponent in the general election, as no Democratic candidate filed to enter the race by the deadline, and therefore he would virtually be assured reeelction in November.

3. Negative attacks

The race has been contentious between the two candidates with both accusing each other of mudslinging and falsehoods. Hanna refused to debate Tenney, saying he would not debate someone who is not honest. Tenney has accused Hanna of lying about her record in the state Assembly in TV ads. She has also charged the congressman with being backed by “liberal super PACs” in an interview with the Post-Standard. According to the FEC, Hanna has raised over $300,000 in PAC money while Tenney has raised none. Tenney has been far outspent by Hanna and has mostly financed her campaign with her own money.

— Ashley Hupfl