Battleground New York: 2014 House Races You Should Watch

While New York is one of the bluer states in the nation, the Republican Party is eyeing seats from the South Shore of Long Island to the North Country for possible pickups to increase their majority in the House of Representatives. Across the aisle, Democrats see an opportunity to take out several of the six GOP members of Congress from the Empire State as part of their bid to win back the House.

City & State asked Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Steve Israel, who also happens to represent New York’s 3rd District,
and National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Greg Walden, of Oregon, to game out the contested general election battles across the state.

Rep. Steve Israel (D) = SI

Rep. Greg Walden (R) = GW

1st Congressional District

Geroge Demos (Lawyer-R), Lee Zeldin (State Senator-R)

GW: “I think this race is one that we will win. If you look at it, it’s a seat that Romney and Obama basically tied in at 49 percent. Bishop got 50.2 percent in 2010 and 52 percent in 2012, so it’s one that’s really on the cusp. And [Tim Bishop] still has all these ethics issues out there … that create kind a smell around a campaign, which doesn’t bode well for an incumbent in an anti-incumbent year. … Beyond that, this recent really cheap shot attack on Lee Zeldin by the DCCC I think is something that (A) they should apologize for, but (B) has changed the dynamic of that race overnight. Lee has a primary he’s going to have to work through with George [Demos]. They’re going to have to figure that out—[the NRCC doesn’t] do primaries—but just looking at what’s happened here, I think it was a stupid strategic decision on the DCCC’s part to attack a very courageous man of high integrity who served his country in the first Iraq War in the 82nd Airborne—and they label him a coward? I think it was a mistake. Mistakes make a difference in elections, and they’ve made a whopper of a mistake here, and I think it hurts Tim Bishop, and he was already pretty hurt politically.”

Timothy Bishop (Congressman-D)

SI: “That’s a very competitive district, and Tim [Bishop] keeps winning it. He keeps winning it based upon his constituent services and a voting record that’s a good fit. This year we’re looking at an explosive and virulent Republican primary between [Lee] Zeldin and [George] Demos, and so they have a divided Republican field and they’re going to be attacking one another and spending a ton of money doing it, and Tim will continue doing what he does, which is working.”

4th Congressional District

Frank Scaturro (Lawyer-R), Bluce Blakeman (Former Nassau County Legislature Majority Leader- R)

GW: “I think the 4th District is one that can be competitive. It’s a little tougher seat, and we’ll see where it ends up, but it’s one we’re keeping an eye on. When a seat comes open, you evaluate it, and it’s certainly one we’re watching going forward. The Democrats are obviously putting a lot of throw-weight into that race to try to hold it.”

 Kathleen Rice (Nassau Country District Attorney- D), Kevan Abrahams (Nassau County Legislature Minority Leader- D)

SI: “It’s a 54 percent Democratic-performing district; the president got nearly 57 percent. … Kathleen Rice filed with over a million dollars and has extremely high name recognition. … That was also a big NRCC recruitment failure. Their chosen candidate, Kate Murray, turned them down, leaving them with Bruce Blakeman, so we’re feeling very good about that race.”

11th Congressional District

 Michael Grimm (Congressman- R)

GW: “[Michael Grimm] needs to make his case to the people and in the legal system, and nobody can do that better than Michael Grimm can. He’s going to have to answer these charges, but he is a fighter. He is a smart, capable legislator who works very hard for the people of his district. … [The indictment] is not helpful, there’s no doubt about that. When you have an indictment come down against anybody, it’s a pretty nasty thing, [but] in the American system of justice he has the right to defend himself, and the government has to prove its charges.”

Domenic Recchia (Fmr. New York Councilman-D)

SI: “The Grimm race was competitive before the 20-count indictment and is competitive after the 20-count indictment. Brooklyn and Staten Island
residents have suffered through Michael Grimm’s reckless antics and irresponsible agenda long enough and deserve a new, responsible representative who will stay focused on solving constituents’ problems instead of his own legal troubles. While Michael Grimm has been busy getting arrested for refusing to pay his taxes, Domenic Recchia has worked tirelessly to help families and small businesses rebuild from [Superstorm] Sandy, knows how to
work together to find solutions for middle class families, and is running an aggressive campaign that is on track for success in November.”

18th Congressional District

Nan Hayworth (Fmr. Congresswoman-R)

GW: “Nobody works harder than Nan Hayworth … and she has proven her ability to continue to fundraise and to work every event, festival, street fair and meeting there is in the district. She’s shown she can win it before, and I think in this referendum election this is a seat that suddenly comes into play, more so than in ’12 when she lost it. Meanwhile, Maloney’s cast a few votes to give himself some political cover, but he
still supported Obamacare and a budget that would increase spending and never balance it, and those are issues that Nan knows how to articulate well on. … Now Obamacare is more than just a theory, it’s a reality, and in many people’s lives it’s not a great reality … You’ve got chaos, confusion, premiums still going up—a lot of issues that will swirl around him, and Nan’s very, very capable and hardworking at getting out the facts and running a pretty aggressive campaign.”

Sean Patrick Maloney (Congressman-D)

SI: “Sean [Patrick Maloney] is also one of our top defenders, and this is kind of a repeat of [the] Tea Party Nan Hayworth campaign in 2012. She swept in on a Tea Party tide; [then] she got swept out in 2012 because her record was way too extreme for that district. Sean is not only a good fit for the district but is actually enjoying the support of many local Republicans. Nan is out of touch with that district, and it’s going to do a replay of a Tea Party brand that has been largely rejected in that district.”

19th Congressional District

Chris Gibson (Congressman-R)

GW: “I don’t think the voters in the 19th District are for sale, and Sean Eldridge seems to think they are. It’s really remarkable to watch how he has bought one mansion after another until he can kind of crawl his way into the district. … I think that attitude of wealth and just work your way in doesn’t play well, especially when it juxtaposes against Chris Gibson, who was born and raised in upstate New York. He’s faithfully served his country
since before Sean Eldridge was even on the planet or was in diapers. Chris is a hardworking guy. … He just is so passionate for the people because he’s one of them. … Everything about that district just vibrates Chris Gibson, and so I think that’s an enormous hurdle that even money can’t overcome.

Sean Eldridge (Activist-D)

SI: “Also has great potential. Chris [Gibson] is another Republican that got swept in with the Tea Party wave, and now that his district was redistricted and became more competitive, he’s trying to act as a moderate. People know who you are and what you’re about. Sean Eldridge has been a major advocate for marriage equality in New York. He’s been fundraising aggressively. It’s a 49.5 percent Democratic district. The president won it 53.2 percent. That district, I think, is prototypical of New York districts, where it’s getting bluer as time goes by.”

21st Congressional District

Elise Stefanik (Fmr. George W. Bush Administration Aide- R) and Matt Doheny (Buisinessman-R)

GW: “[The 21st has] got to be Steve Israel’s, well, one of his, now very many recruitment failures and headaches, because this is an open seat that he did not need or want nor think he was going to have. … They had to go basically outside of the district to find a filmmaker—not exactly your top-profile candidate, who got kind of hit by the media for the first three weeks of his campaign, flip-flopped on the SAFE Act, and I just don’t think he’s going to augur in that well in that district, where you’ve got both Elise Stefanik and Matt Doheny, who know the district and are working it hard and there’s a lot of energy behind their campaigns. They’ll get through their primary and sort things out. We’re in communication separately with each of them, I know them both well, and our goal is to have a Republican in this seat when everything is said and done, and I think we will.”

Aaron Woolf (Buisinessman and Filmmaker- D)

SI: “When you have an open seat, it obviously becomes a challenge by definition. … Aaron Woolf, a documentary filmmaker—his family has owned a home in Elizabethtown since the 1960s; he very quickly got the endorsement of all 12 county Democratic chairs. Meanwhile, on the Republican side, you’ve got another vicious and very expensive primary. …[Matt] Doheny and [Elise] Stefanik, they’re going to pull each other further and further to the right, and that’s a district that does not tilt to the right. It’s an absolutely centrist and moderate district.”

23rd Congressional District

Tom Reed (Congressman- R)

GW: “Martha has had her set of mistakes along the way. The whole deal with she can’t figure out if she supports or opposes the SAFE Act; she wants to go beyond Obamacare to a European-style healthcare system; doesn’t like fossil fuels… and then ended up having Peter Yarrow come in and not canceling the event but going on with it … and that’s even before you start talking about the fact that she’s voted to raise taxes on a fairly regular basis on the Tompkins Council. Tom’s working it hard, he’s out there all the time, he’s a very effective legislator, he’s on a key committee, he’s settling in, he knows how to get things done and I think he holds that seat, especially in this cycle. 

Martha Robertson (Tompkins Country Legislature Chair- D)

SI: “That’s another key pickup opportunity. Congressman [Tom] Reed also faces lots of ethical problems, failed to pay his taxes—in one instance where he paid his taxes, he used campaign funds to pay it. Martha Robertson is well known as a county legislator. She’s doing a terrific job. Reed only won by 10,000 votes last time against an underfunded challenger, and so there’s something about him where he obviously hasn’t developed traction with the voters of NY-23.”

24th Congressional District

John Katko (Fmr. Federal Prosecuter- R)

GW: “I’m encouraged … We had to find the right candidate, and it took a while, but John is a terrific candidate. I’m more and more impressed the more I get to know him and watch him in action, and as we begin to look where we can add and shift resources, we’re moving into this seat. This is one that makes a lot of sense for us. We’ve won it before and we’ll win it again. [Dan] Maffei has yet to win an election in a midterm, and they’re going to have to spend an enormous amount of resources to try and hold onto this seat. It’s going to be a real battleground.”

Dan Maffei (Congressman-D)

SI: “I wouldn’t take any district like that for granted, because it is a very competitive district … but the president got 58 percent [there]. The issue with Dan [Maffei] in that race is going to be making sure that there is voter turnout [from Syracuse] University. One of the reasons the president got 58 percent in that district was because he did have very strong turnout at the university, not just students but faculty and others. And so Dan’s focus will be continuing to serve his district. In terms of his campaign operation, he’s going to need to focus on ensuring voter turnout in November.”