The C&S Political Report: The State Senate

The balance of power in the New York State Senate is about as complicated as it can get for a legislative body, and it could get even more confusing come election season when not two but three conferences will square off for at least a share of control of the state’s upper house. In a handful of Senate districts that went down to the wire in 2012, incumbents and challengers—some old, some new—are already preparing for a repeat of those hard-fought battles. Meanwhile, several vacancies are shaking things up, and there is still time for more senators to retire or resign.

To make sense of it all, City & State mapped out the current landscape, identified the key electoral contests in 2014 and assessed where each race stands. 

CURRENT LANDSCAPE: 

Republicans: 29 

Vacant (formerly Republican): 1 

Democrat caucusing with Republicans: 1 

Independent Democratic Conference (IDC): 5

Nonaligned Democrats: 2 

Vacant (formerly Democrat): 1 

Democrats: 24 

ELECTION LANDSCAPE: 

Solid Republican/IDC: 24 

Likely Republican/IDC: 4 

Lean Republican/IDC: 5 

Toss-ups: 6 

Lean Democrat: 2 

Likely Democrat: 4 

Solid Democrat: 18 

The Independent Democratic Conference (IDC) is grouped together with the Senate Republican Conference, with whom they currently share power. 

LIKELY REPUBLICAN/IDC

TONY AVELLA (IDC) 

The state senator from northeast Queens has a reputation as a maverick, and in February he lived up to that label by leaving the regular Democrats to join the IDC. His move quickly met with criticism and calls to recruit a primary challenger. Although he has only $2,776 in his campaign account, Avella is popular in his district and has portrayed his conference switching as a boon for his constituents. 

JEFFREY KLEIN (IDC) 

The IDC leader faces a potential primary challenge from Oliver Koppell, the former attorney general, assemblyman and New York City councilman. Koppell’s attacks on Klein this year reflect broader Democratic disillusionment with the IDC’s coalition with the GOP. Yet Klein is a prodigious fundraiser and a strong campaigner, and his push for prekindergarten funding and other progressive priorities may give him a boost despite a failure to pass other bills, such as the DREAM Act. At the same time, the Working Families Party and others on the left have blasted Klein’s record, and could pour their resources into supporting a challenge to the Senate majority co-leader. 

MARTIN GOLDEN (R) 

State Sen. Marty Golden is a member of a rare breed: a New York City Republican in elected office. More than half of the voters in his South Brooklyn district are Democrats, but Golden has proven popular, beating his Democratic opponent in 2012 with 57.7 percent of the vote. His strong fundraising could also be a deterrent to potential challengers: In January he reported close to half a million dollars in his campaign treasury. 

SIMCHA FELDER (D/R) 

The Brooklyn Democrat defected to the GOP shortly after getting elected in 2012. He is in a strong position to win re-election this year, although some observers speculate that he will join whichever conference gives him more power. With the Senate Republicans likely to rebound from a disappointing 2012 performance at the polls and extend or even expand their majority coalition, look for Felder to stay where he’s at—at least for now.

LEAN REPUBLICAN/IDC

PHILIP BOYLE (R) 

Senate Democrats have been eyeing potential pickups on Long Island, where shifting demographics favor the party, but Republicans have held them at bay. Boyle, who represents part of Suffolk County, won re-election with 52.6 percent of the vote in 2012. This year he was conspicuously absent from an unsuccessful vote on the DREAM Act, an issue that could energize Latinos in his district. 

GREG BALL (R) 

Ball has flirted with a run for Putnam County executive; however, even if he runs for re-election to the Senate, the Republicans could have a tough time holding onto his seat. In 2012 he beat Democrat Justin Wagner with just 51 percent of the vote, and Wagner has already announced his plans to challenge him again. As for campaign funds, Ball has $136,500; Wagner has over $97,000. Ball can be unpredictable, but he knows how to make headlines and is a spirited campaigner. 

KEMP HANNON (R) 

Hannon, a longtime incumbent who won with 52 percent of the vote in 2012, is also among the Long Island lawmakers who have been targeted as changes in area demographics offer potential pickup opportunities for Democrats. Like Boyle, Hannon has a significant number of Hispanic voters in his district and was absent from the recent Senate vote on the DREAM Act. 

WILLIAM LARKIN (R)

Larkin’s district, which includes parts of Orange, Rockland and Ulster counties, has more active Democratic voters than Republican and Conservative voters combined. Nonetheless, the incumbent, who has been in office since 1990, was re-elected again in 2012 with 52.3 percent of the vote. 

JACK MARTINS (R) 

Martins will face businessman Adam Haber, a Democrat who last fall lost the Democratic primary for Nassau County executive. Four in ten active voters in the district are Democrats, while Republicans number just 31 percent. But Martins, who won re-election in 2012 with 51.8 percent of the vote, has $285,000 in campaign funds, and Republicans say he is a strong campaigner. Haber, who loaned himself $1 million for his county executive run, is expected to be able to self-fund his challenge. 

THE TOSS-UPS

CECILIA TKACZYK (D) 

After two court rulings and a recount, Tkaczyk beat then Assemblyman George Amedore by just 18 votes in a surprise come-from-behind victory. Amedore, a Republican, is widely expected to run against the Democratic incumbent again in the Capital Region–Hudson Valley district, which was added in the last round of redistricting and was seen as custom-made for an Amedore candidacy. In January Tkaczyk had $119,000 in campaign funds, while Amedore reported far less—but Amedore easily outpaced Tkaczyk in dollars raised the last time around. 

TERRY GIPSON (D) 

Gipson was one of several Democrats to win a close contest in 2012, coming out on top in a three-way race with just 43.8 percent of the vote. The Republican incumbent, Stephen Saland, was hurt by his vote for same-sex marriage and by the Conservative Party candidacy of Neil DiCarlo in the general election. Now Republicans are eager to win back the seat: Dutchess County Legislature Chairman Robert Rolison won local party backing, while Dutchess County Comptroller Jim Coughlan and Poughkeepsie Mayor John Tkazyik are also in the mix. Gipson reported nearly $223,000 in campaign funds in January. So far only Tkazyik has reported a similar fundraising amount on the GOP side, with $227,270 in the bank. 

TED O’BRIEN (D) 

In 2012 O’Brien won the seat that had been held by veteran Republican state Sen. James Alesi, who declined to run for re-election after his vote for same-sex marriage—although the real reason for his retirement may have been an ill-advised lawsuit he filed after injuring himself while trespassing. O’Brien beat former Republican assemblyman Sean Hanna in 2012 with 52 percent of the vote. Hanna recently loaned himself $200,000 for another potential run; however, Republicans expect the nominee to be Richard Funke, a retired television newscaster in Rochester with high name recognition. Still, Funke’s campaign got off to a rough start when he fired a communications aide who was exposed for having been convicted of soliciting a prostitute. 

MARK GRISANTI (R) 

Despite his controversial vote for same-sex marriage, Grisanti eked out a re-election win in 2012 with 50.2 percent of the vote in a three-way race against a Democrat and a Conservative Party candidate. This year he is under attack for his vote in favor of the SAFE Act. The race could again be crowded: Erie County Legislator Kevin Hardwick and attorney Kevin Stocker may challenge him in a Republican primary. Democrat Laura Palisano Hackathorn, a Hamburg village trustee, and the Tea Party’s Rus Thompson are also eyeing the contest. While Grisanti will have a hard time securing Conservative Party support, he did line up backing from the Independence Party. Some have speculated that Grisanti could even switch parties, given the district’s sizable Democratic enrollment advantage, his own status as a former Democrat, and a report that he had sought the Democratic line for 2014 in addition to the Republican line. 

8TH SENATE DISTRICT (R) 

When Republican state Sen. Charles Fuschillo resigned at the end of 2013, he created an open seat in a district straddling Nassau and Suffolk counties that will be a fiercely contested battleground. The popular Fuschillo—he won with 59 percent of the vote in 2012— made things easy for Republicans despite a registration disadvantage, but now Nassau County Legislator Michael Venditto will have his hands full fending off the Democratic nominee, whether it is fellow Nassau County Legislator David Denenberg or Freeport Deputy Mayor Carmen Piñeyro. Venditto, 32, is the son of Oyster Bay Town Supervisor John Venditto.

3RD SENATE DISTRICT (R) 

Republican state Sen. Lee Zeldin’s decision to challenge Democrat Rep. Tim Bishop opened up a second Republican-held district on Long Island—assuming that Zeldin wins the GOP primary for Congress. Zeldin’s Suffolk County seat may be slightly less vulnerable for Republicans than Fuschillo’s, but it is still a toss-up. Anthony Senft, a councilman on the Islip Town Board and a registered member of the Conservative Party, is the Suffolk Republicans’ designated candidate for the seat. He will likely face Democrat Adrienne Esposito, an environmentalist and the executive director of the Citizens Campaign for the Environment.

LEANS DEMOCRAT

GEORGE LATIMER (D) 

Latimer gave up his Assembly seat to run for the state Senate in 2012 and beat Republican businessman Bob Cohen in a closely watched race with a comfortable 54.1 percent of the vote. Cohen, who had come close to knocking out Latimer’s predecessor Suzi Oppenheimer in 2010, still has an active campaign account, but there is no indication that he is planning to run again this year. 

TIMOTHY KENNEDY (D) 

The 63rd Senate District is likely to stay in the hands of a Democrat, given the party’s large enrollment advantage in and around Buffalo. But Kennedy will have to fend off a primary rematch from Erie County Legislature Minority Leader Betty Jean Grant, who lost to him by just 156 votes in 2012. And since the Independent Democratic Conference has pledged to support Grant, a victory could move the seat to the IDC’s column. One key issue in this race could be abortion rights, with the IDC’s Jeff Klein claiming that Grant would better support a pro-choice agenda than Kennedy. In January Kennedy had over $215,000 in campaign funds, while Grant has yet to report this year how much she has raised. 

LIKELY DEMOCRAT

JOSEPH ADDABBO (D) 

Addabbo held onto his Queens district with a surprisingly large 57.6 percent share of the vote in 2012 after a spirited challenge from Republican Eric Ulrich, who has since been re-elected to the New York City Council. Although Ulrich still has $52,000 in his Senate campaign account (compared with Addabbo’s $30,000), insiders expect Ulrich to take a pass and for Addabbo to have an even easier race this year. 

GUSTAVO RIVERA (D) 

Rivera easily won his primary and general election races in 2012, but he could face a primary challenge in his Bronx district this year from New York City Councilman Fernando Cabrera. It is unclear whether the IDC would support Cabrera, but the conference looked at supporting a Rivera challenger in 2012 and might do so again this year. 

TOBY ANN STAVISKY (D) 

Stavisky has been rumored as another target of the IDC, although it is unclear who might run against her this year. In 2012 she won a primary against John Messer with 54.5 percent of the vote. The senator reported $40,796.97 in campaign funds in January.