Opinion: When residents leave, power follows

Every month, thousands of New Yorkers pack up their belongings and leave the state they love. Not because they want to – but because they simply can’t afford to stay. This exodus isn’t just a personal tragedy for families forced to abandon their communities; it’s becoming an existential political threat. Democrats must recognize this reality: Solving the housing crisis isn’t just good policy, it’s essential for political survival.

The numbers paint a stark picture. New York lost over 500,000 residents between 2020 and 2023, leading to the loss of a congressional seat after the 2020 census. While New York City is slowly regaining residents, projections suggest continued outmigration could cost the state two to three seats after the 2030 census. Many of those leaving are moving to Republican-led states like Texas and Florida, where housing is far more affordable. As New York Times columnist Ezra Klein recently pointed out, this demographic shift has serious electoral implications: In 2032, a Democratic presidential candidate could win every state that Harris won in 2024 – plus Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – and still lose the general election. 

With President Donald Trump back in office, Republicans will undoubtedly exploit voter frustration over affordability issues. Democrats must prove they can govern effectively by delivering tangible solutions – and housing reform represents our clearest opportunity to do so.

The old Albany mindset of building new housing as only an occasional priority fails to recognize the urgency voters feel about this issue. Recent polling confirms what many already sense: 89% of voters say housing costs have risen in recent years, and 79% believe affordable housing should be a top priority. Most tellingly, 55% disapprove of how state leaders are currently handling housing affordability.

Voters are ready to reward action on this front. The same polls show 57% are more likely to vote for legislators who support key housing reforms, including 56% of independents. Continued inaction risks alienating young voters, middle-class families and immigrants – core Democratic constituencies who feel the affordability pinch most acutely.

Fortunately, there’s a ready-to-go solution sitting on Albany’s doorstep: the Faith-Based Affordable Housing Act. This innovative legislation would allow religious institutions to develop housing on their underutilized land, potentially unlocking 60,000 homes for 180,000 New Yorkers across the state. It represents the most viable and immediate housing reform opportunity for 2025.

The proposal enjoys remarkably broad support, with 75% of voters backing it after hearing a brief description. Even after hearing arguments against it, 70% maintain their support. Faith leaders and communities across denominations have rallied behind the measure, recognizing both its practical and moral dimensions.

Beyond the immediate housing benefits, this approach strengthens local economies, better funds schools and creates more vibrant communities. Increasing housing supply is revenue-positive – more homes generate additional local revenue for essential services.

Other Democratic-led states have successfully navigated similar reforms. California and Washington have passed significant pro-housing legislation while maintaining voter support. New York must follow suit or risk falling further behind.

The political calculus is clear. Housing action directly appeals to voters across political and economic lines. The Faith-Based Affordable Housing Act’s passage would bolster Gov. Kathy  Hochul’s standing, with 53% of voters saying they’d view her more favorably if she signed it into law. It also provides Democrats a powerful counter to Republican economic narratives about affordability.

With the 2030 census five years away, Albany cannot afford to close another legislative session without tackling affordability and preventing further outmigration. The consequences of inaction are dire: lost congressional seats, diminished national representation and slashed federal funding for New York state.

We must prioritize passing housing-friendly bills to keep New Yorkers in their communities and strengthen our state’s economy and political influence. The Faith-Based Affordable Housing Act is a critical step forward that cannot wait – but it’s just the beginning. To truly address the housing crisis, we must build on this momentum and commit to passing bold, pro-housing policies every year.

Democrats face a simple truth: Without decisive action on housing, New York will continue losing residents, power, and most of all, federal funding. The time to act isn’t next year or after the next election – it’s now, before it’s too late.