Happy 2025! It’s time to start thinking about the next census

New census data from last month shows that New York is set to do a little better on the congressional playing field than originally expected. But a lot can change between now and 2030, and concern about the impacts of the incoming administration on the census has experts warning that both New York City and the state need to start preparing as soon as possible. 

According to new estimates from the United States Census Bureau, New York’s population increased by nearly 130,000 between 2023 and 2024. That’s among the highest raw population gains in the country. Domestic outmigration from New York still continued, as the state had the second-highest number of people leaving the state for another. But unlike the past two years, the state had an estimated net population growth.

The new numbers also provided a slightly improved congressional redistricting outlook for the state. Initially, New York was predicted to lose three seats in 2030. The latest projections now put the predicted loss at two seats instead. But that would still be more than the one seat the state narrowly lost in 2020 after a first-of-its-kind census outreach effort in New York City. 

Although 2030 is still five years away, census experts are already talking about how the city and state should prepare for the next count, especially given concerns over politicization of the census by President-elect Donald Trump, to ensure that New York’s losses are kept minimal. “To see us losing two districts, coupled with the threats of what the Trump administration might do to the census, I think raises further concern that New York can lose more than two districts after 2030 especially,” said Jeff Wice, a professor at New York Law School and the director of its New York Elections, Census and Redistricting Institute. “We might not be able to increase the birth rate or prevent people from leaving the state, but we can certainly make every effort to count people who remain in New York.”

Wice is working on a “census support bill” that he hopes to get introduced in the state Legislature in the upcoming session to get the ball rolling on state support for census efforts. He specifically mentioned state aid in ensuring that local towns and villages provide updated mailing addresses to the Census Bureau in 2027 and 2028. Wice said New York City’s active participation in the program helped to add 660,000 people to the 2020 population count. Wice said his planned legislation would “create complete count education efforts at a much larger scale than the state's ever seen before.”

New York City Council Member Julie Menin, who led the city’s record census outreach in 2020, said she’s working on legislation at the city level to create a permanent Office of the Census. “As the city's first census director, it was a Herculean task to create this new entity, particularly under the time and pressure constraints we were under,” she said. Despite obstacles including the pandemic, New York City had record census participation in 2020, and the state limited its congressional losses to just one seat. That’s the smallest loss since 1950; until 2020, the state had lost at least two seats every decade, with the number getting as high as five lost seats during 1980’s redistricting cycle. 

The work for the census outreach started years before the actual count. “My concern is we need to do that again,” Menin said. “By 2028, New York City and New York state need to begin their efforts.”

One key issue that census experts expect could affect the 2030 count is the possibility that a citizenship question will be added to the census, which could dissuade immigrants from filling out the government survey. The Trump administration tried to add such a question to the 2020 census, but the U.S. Supreme Court blocked it after a lawsuit brought by New York and others. Menin said that the addition of a citizenship question would have had a “devastating effect” on census efforts in 2020. She believes that Trump may once again try to get the question added before the 2030 census. “Even though we have settled Supreme Court law that that that question was not lawfully added, they will find another way, without a doubt,” Menin said.

New immigration has driven population growth in many states, according to the new data. New York itself has welcomed over 200,000 migrants in the past few years seeking asylum. Although some have since left the state, many others still remain. Counting them, along with the hundreds of thousands of other noncitizens – including undocumented immigrants – will be crucial to the state’s census efforts.

If Trump makes good on his promises of mass deportations, that could have a negative impact on New York’s population estimates – although current stats from Immigration and Customs Enforcement show New York has very few deportations compared to places like Texas and other major metropolitan areas.

Wice expressed worries over Trump’s potential to politicize the census. The conservative Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025 planning document, which includes many recommendations that Trump has ultimately adopted as campaign positions, recommends merging the Census Bureau with the Bureau of Labor Statistics and prioritizing political appointees over nonpartisan hiring for statistical analysis positions. Trump himself has a controversial plan to reclassify many civil service federal employees as political appointees. Wice said that most people at the Census Bureau are career staffers, but Trump added more political appointees than ever during his first term. “Trump placed additional people at the Census Bureau before 2020, none of whom had any census or technical backgrounds,” Wice said. 

With so much uncertainty, Menin said that replicating and expanding the successes of the 2020 census count will be crucial, and that work needs to start as soon as possible. “I would really argue that the Census is one of the most important issues that affects New York City's future, she said.