New York and Quebec are caught in the middle of Trump’s trade war

Nothing like a trade war to let you know spring has sprung. President Donald Trump’s administration has been playing a game of will they or won’t they with Canada over tariffs. The situation has already had serious ramifications on sectors of New York’s economy that rely on cross-border trade with Quebec and Ontario for commerce and accessing raw materials.

Quebec Minister of International Relations Martine Biron was in New York City recently and spoke with City & State about the concerns her province and country have about the future of New York-Quebec relations. Biron also shared some bad news for croissant lovers and a certain Manhattan state senator by telling us that her province wouldn’t stand for New York joining her country. This interview was edited for length and clarity.

Your visit to New York is timely since with the recent actions of Ontario Premier Doug Ford, it would appear that Quebec likes us a little bit more than the rest of Canada.

For us in Quebec, our government and our premier, Premier of Quebec François Legault, is also a businessman, and he thinks that tariffs will hurt us all – American, Canadian and Quebecers. And we decided that it would be better if our strategy was to keep a cool head, because we’ve been partners with Americans for a very long time. You know, the office here in New York City has been open for 85 years. So we have been in partnership with Americans and all sorts of sectors for a very long time, and Americans think that Quebecers are trustworthy and reliable. So we need to keep a (cool) head and to keep the channel open with our partners. At this moment, I can tell you, though, that the present is not fun for us in Quebec. We don’t like what we see. We think that tariffs will hurt everybody, and that we are heading here in America and probably in Canada, for inflation, unemployment and recession. So this is bad for Americans, bad for Canadians, bad for Quebecers.

Is it frustrating for you and the rest of your province and country to see how things have devolved so rapidly under just this administration?

It’s not knowing what’s going to happen that is the main problem, the uncertainty. We want to have visibility. We want to be able to work with our friends, with our partners. The relationship is changing, and we don’t know what’s going to happen, but America is our main partner. You know, Quebec on the international exchange has trade of about $250 billion each year. Half of this exchange is with Americans and this relationship, whatever happens, will be maintained. We’re going to lower our dependency, but we’re still going to do business with Americans, and we are unhappy with the decision of the Trump administration, but we have allies, and we work with lots of states, and it goes well. Our strategy is to be on the land to keep the channel open, with Republicans, with Democrats, with businesses, with whom we make business, and we’re hoping for better days, but the present is gloomy weather. I can tell you that for now, but there’s going to be an after. The sun will come back.

Do you anticipate a short-term but very real economic hit between our intertwined economies?

Yeah, aluminum, steel, minerals, strategic and critical, hydroelectricity, energy. Actually, I don’t anticipate a lot of things. What I’m focusing on is facts. I am not focusing on tweets, so, tariffs will hurt everybody, and it’s going to be bad. It’s going to be inflation in America and inflation in Quebec. It’s going to be unemployment, lots of unemployment and a recession. So this is what I anticipate if there is a tariff. The idea is to eliminate the idea of tariffs and try to work with a win-win partnership. With the free trade agreement that will be revised in 2026, we hope that it will be revised earlier so we can go on with our partnership with Americans.

How would you describe your province’s relationship with New York, specifically with Gov. Kathy Hochul?

Our relationship with New York is good. New York is our second market of importance after the region of Chicago. The exchange with New York is about $11 billion each year. So it’s important. It’s an integrated chain of supply, so we need to work together. And if the tariffs are on and we break this chain of supply, it’s going to be difficult on both sides of the border.

How similar or dissimilar would you say are New York politics and Quebec politics?

You know, we’ve been partnered for a long time. So for sure, we have our politics on both sides and we manage together. But what’s surprising, Democrats used to be the party of protectionist measures – today, things change. What’s surprising politically at this moment is we’ve been friends for so long, and now we’re beginning an era of transactional relationships, and there will be some consequences with the situation and how bad will it hurt our relationship? I’m not sure. I cannot know, my crystal ball is not clear enough, but it’s a difficult time, and we in Quebec, the people are hurt about this breach with their usual friendship. It’s just a bad period and the partner-partner, win-win relationship that we always had will be maintained, but this is uncertainty for this moment. But you know, actually, there will be a federal election in the next coming weeks in Quebec. We’re doing relations on a subnational scale with some states, and we will follow up and continue to keep the channel open with our partners and our allies because we have allies.

We had state Sen. Liz Krueger here in New York who proposed that Canada should make us a neighboring province to Quebec and the rest of northeastern Canada. Is that something that you think the Quebecois and Canadians would support?

Read my lips. It will never happen, and this is not a joke. In Quebec, it will never happen. It will never, never, never happen.

Why is that?

We are what we are, with our culture, with our economy, and we’re proud of what we’ve built, and we’re proud of what we are, and we’re proud of having friends and neighbors like Americans. So we need to keep this relationship together.

With America not having the most amazing reputation abroad on top of this trade war, would this affect the sentiment that Canadians have about average Americans?

Quebecers are so used to doing business with Americans. Quebecers are snow birds and are wondering if they still are welcome in America. So this is not an easy period for Quebecers. They’re sad, some are angry, some are worried for the future. So it’s not a good period, there’s a dark cloud in the sky at this moment, but I know that we will go through because we have (cool) heads, we have plans in place, and we gather and are sticking together.