Can Andrew Cuomo bounce back?

“I’m not disappearing.”

That was one of the first things that then-Gov. Andrew Cuomo said after announcing that he would resign from office in August 2021 amid a sexual harassment scandal. He offered the thought before he even officially stepped down in an interview with New York magazine, one of the few he has given in the past 3 1/2 years.

In that time, Cuomo certainly has not disappeared, even if his public appearances – mostly at Black churches – have been relatively few and far between. The most access that reporters have had to the ex-governor was likely when he testified before a congressional committee in Washington, D.C., about his response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Yet the specter of Cuomo has continued to loom large, with constant chatter about a potential political comeback that started almost immediately upon his exit from the Executive Mansion.

Rumors have swirled for years about what Cuomo might do, with talk of a run for state attorney general against the woman who aided in his downfall or attempting to compete against his former lieutenant for the role of governor. But nothing has felt more concrete than his widely expected run for New York City mayor. Sources now suggest the former governor will formally enter the race within the next few weeks. Leading in practically every public poll so far, even before announcing his candidacy, Cuomo appears poised to prove that he has managed to overcome scandals that may have felled other politicians after his yearslong dedication to staying in politics and a series of legal victories that he has framed as vindication.

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“Gov. Cuomo sexually harassed current and former state employees in violation of both federal and state laws.” That's what state Attorney General Letitia James said as she announced the release of a nearly 200-page report about the governor in August 2021. Talk of impeachment swirled as the Assembly undertook its own investigation of Cuomo, and district attorneys in multiple counties said they were looking into the possibility of bringing criminal charges against him. A week after James’ report was released, Cuomo said he would resign. After his resignation, two women who accused Cuomo of sexual misconduct – allegations that the governor has strenuously denied – filed civil lawsuits against him.

At the same time, Cuomo’s highs during the pandemic – when he graced television screens around the nation daily and offered what many considered a calm and authoritative voice during the chaos – had also reached new lows. The governor faced intense scrutiny over a decision to transfer recovering COVID-19 patients to nursing homes and was accused of fudging death toll numbers to cover up the impacts of that decision. Critics also said he improperly enriched himself with a $5 million book deal in the middle of the pandemic. After concluding that Cuomo had used government resources to help write the book, the state’s former ethics agency ordered Cuomo to return the money – a decision the courts determined should be revisited by the state’s new ethics watchdog.

It’s hard to imagine coming back from all of that, but Cuomo now seems well on his way.

His reputation has been buoyed by a series of victories since his resignation that, while not making his troubles disappear, have at least provided him ammunition in his ongoing narrative of redemption from political persecution. The first came shortly after his resignation, when five local prosecutors each declined to bring criminal charges against the former governor. The prospect had always been a long shot, as sexual harassment is a civil offense and the worst of the allegations would have been exceedingly difficult to prove in court, but that didn’t stop Cuomo from touting the outcomes as a sign of vindication. “How can you have a report that says 11 cases (of sexual harassment), and then it goes through law enforcement and they find no cases?” Cuomo said at a South Bronx church in March 2022, his first public appearance after resigning. “It was a fraud.”

Cuomo has gone on the offensive to downplay other allegations against him. He sued the Commission on Ethics and Lobbying in Government, the state’s ethics watchdog created after he left office, to prevent it from launching its own investigation into his book deal. Lawyers for the former governor argued not just that he deserved to keep the $5 million, but that the agency itself was unconstitutional because it was too independent of the executive branch. Cuomo won the first, trial court-level fight in September 2023. An appellate court upheld the decision, ruling a little less than a year later that the creation of the ethics agency had violated the state constitution. Unfortunately for Cuomo, he ultimately lost that legal fight after the state’s highest court, the Court of Appeals, ruled in a 4-3 decision that COELIG abided by the constitution. A spokesperson for the former governor was quick to decry that ruling, though, questioning the motives of the four judges who overturned the lower court decisions. 

Cuomo was grilled by Republicans and Democrats alike when he testified last year before the congressional Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Pandemic. Members of the committee even referred him to the Department of Justice for potential prosecution over his decisions and conduct during the pandemic.

But Cuomo has gotten vindication on that as well. A report from the Department of Justice inspector general last month concluded what the ex-governor has been saying for years: The federal investigation into nursing home deaths was at least partially politically motivated. According to the report, Democratic-run states like New York and New Jersey were targeted by President Donald Trump’s Department of Justice with targeted leaks about the probes shortly before the 2020 election – despite the fact that other states that received far less public scrutiny also had evidence of quality-of-care issues at their nursing homes. While the report did not absolve Cuomo of every criticism around nursing homes, it provided him another concrete win to back up his claims of political victimhood.

Cuomo’s biggest perceived victory may have come when former staffer Charlotte Bennett dropped her sexual harassment lawsuit against him, shortly before she was set to give her deposition in the case. The former governor immediately filed a new lawsuit against Bennett that accused her of defamation. “Charlotte Bennett’s decision to drop her case was an absolutely extraordinary development,” said Andrew Kirtzman, managing director at consulting firm Actum. “And (it’s) a testament to Cuomo’s scorched earth tactics.” In a statement announcing her decision to drop the case, Bennett said that Cuomo had weaponized her own lawsuit against her to harass her along with her friends and family. Cuomo had engaged in aggressive subpoenaing in both Bennett’s lawsuit and in a separate lawsuit brought by an unnamed state trooper, which remains ongoing, as does another suit from a former staffer. “Throughout this extraordinarily painful two-year case, I’ve many times believed that I’d be better off dead than endure more of his litigation abuse, which has caused extraordinary pain and expense to my family and friends,” Bennett said at the time. “I desperately need to live my life.” But for Cuomo, Bennett’s decision to drop the case gave him another talking point to bolster his narrative that he was overcoming various false allegations.

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“We operate on two speeds here: Get along, and kill.”

That was how former top Cuomo aide Steve Cohen described the fledgling administration in a phone exchange from 2011 with Dan Malloy, then the governor of Connecticut, as reported by the Connecticut Post. The quote offers insight into the personality of someone who will fight tooth and nail to get what he wants. Cohen remains a close confidant of the former governor, with The New York Times recently reporting that he was involved with a new pro-Cuomo super PAC.

Cuomo’s aggressive style has so far served him fairly well, and it plays no small part in explaining why the scandal-ridden politician hasn’t faded into post-resignation obscurity. Even now, members of the political world remain fearful of Cuomo’s vindictiveness, unwilling to openly cross the former governor out of concern for how he might respond should the people elect him again.

Despite the relatively positive press that he has managed to rack up in the years since his resignation, Cuomo still faces the major test of actually running for public office again. But the powerful fallen governor has positioned himself well for a comeback.

“In a time of Donald Trump, who are New York Democrats going to turn to? Or who are they open to turning to?” asked political strategist Chris Coffey. “To me, it’s not surprising that someone who is always very, very popular in the Black community, and in other places too, is a very viable option.” Without having even made any announcement, Cuomo is the overwhelming favorite in early mayoral polls, in no small part to his near universal name recognition. He trounces both Mayor Eric Adams and the closest primary opponents, hovering around 30% support in multiple polls. And in a testament to Coffey’s point, an Emerson College poll from earlier this month found that Black voters shifted away from Adams, who leads with them otherwise, toward Cuomo when the former governor was included in the equation.

While he hasn’t made any public announcements on his plans, Cuomo released an awfully campaign-esque video on Valentine’s Day shot at a seniors event he attended the day before in East Harlem. The video featured Cuomo speaking to attendees and glad-handing women who seemed excited he was there. One could be heard saying, “We miss you.”

The host of the event, Assembly Member Eddie Gibbs, said Cuomo received a warm welcome from the seniors, at least one of whom asked if Cuomo was running for mayor. “Everybody was excited to see him, standing ovations, women grabbing him,” Gibbs said. The lawmaker didn’t explicitly invite Cuomo, and he has not endorsed the former governor, but he was still happy to welcome him into his district to talk with constituents. “I like Andrew a lot, he’s my guy.”

And though Gibbs says he is not endorsing anyone, other Democrats are already putting their support behind Cuomo before his official entrance into the race, clearly unperturbed by the scandals following him. Earlier this month, the Staten Island Democratic Party voted to endorse Cuomo following reports that Adams was considering seeking Republican support to run for mayor. “We believe Andrew Cuomo is the only proven leader with the track record of results and resolve to both navigate attacks from Washington and properly address the issues of corruption and deteriorating quality of life that our city faces today,” party Chair Laura LoBianco Sword told the New York Post.

 About a week later, Cuomo gained the backing of his first Democratic club in the city. The Village Reform Democratic Club – which, ironically enough, was originally created by supporters of Ed Koch after the Village Independent Democrats endorsed Mario Cuomo for governor in 1982 – announced that its members had voted for Cuomo in a “landslide.” And far from holding his COVID-19 responses against him, the club credited Cuomo’s leadership during the pandemic as one of the reasons he should lead the city.

Cuomo is a prodigious fundraiser, and he has been having conversations with donors in the city, particularly among the powerful real estate and construction industries. According to one real estate source, the conversations have been going well. The scandals that have plagued Cuomo have not soured that pool of donors to the former governor, who has historically been friendly with the industry. “I think it’s pretty safe to say given the crop of candidates, that he would likely be the odds-on favorite, for at least our industry,” said the real estate source.

Of course, none of this means that Cuomo is being welcomed with open arms. “It’s like being deathly thirsty and the only thing available to drink is New Jersey tap water,” said one Democratic consultant who asked for anonymity to speak candidly about Cuomo. The consultant said Cuomo may not be totally forgiven, but voters and political players are met with the question: “Where else can we go?”

Political power players are not necessarily happy to see Cuomo’s attempted comeback either. He recently showed up at Assembly Member Jordan Wright’s inauguration in Harlem. It was a big event given his father is Keith Wright, the chair of the Manhattan Democratic Party. But according to a source who was there, Cuomo received the cold shoulder, and left soon after he arrived. Working-class Black voters like those in Harlem would make up Cuomo’s base if he decided to run, and would be crucial if he wanted to win. Lack of support from a powerbroker like Wright could hinder that.

A source with knowledge of Queens Democratic Party politics said Cuomo has been “shunned” at events in the recent past. They said he wanted to attend an event in November, but was treated as “persona non grata.” Cuomo may now be trying to make inroads in working-class parts of Brooklyn, but he probably wouldn’t find much support from the likes of party leader Assembly Member Rodneyse Bichotte Hermelyn, who is an ally of Adams – though her vice chair in Brooklyn just backed Cuomo in a personal capacity.

Cuomo still faces vulnerabilities for the scandals that pushed him out of office in 2021, and a new group has already been created that has Cuomo in its crosshairs. United for a Brighter Tomorrow has paid for a TV spot highlighting his various scandals and a radio ad that digs up past gaffes that Cuomo has had with the Black community. A poll from the same group released in February found that while Cuomo was currently the front-runner, his support dropped significantly after potential voters heard negative messaging about the former governor’s scandals. The survey found that the most effective message was about his sexual harassment allegations and ensuing aggressive legal tactics that critics said amounted to harassment, with 74% of voters polled saying it caused them serious or very serious concerns. Messaging about his handling of COVID-19 and his book deal was a close second, with 72% expressing concern about the statement. “Cuomo is already unpopular, but his favorability erodes quickly when voters hear about his faults,” a memo on the poll read.

And as the early favorite, Cuomo is already attracting attacks from other candidates in the race, which will surely increase once he begins appearing with them at forums and debates.

State Sen. Zellnor Myrie has been particularly aggressive in his targeting of the former governor. Following the Court of Appeals ruling surrounding Cuomo’s book deal, Myrie compared him to Trump. “Like Donald Trump, Andrew Cuomo tried to dismantle independent watchdogs that are expressly intended to protect against the abuse of power and prevent our leaders from personally profiting off of the public,” Myrie said in a statement.

With the breakneck pace of news since January, who knows how well such attacks will ultimately play in a few months – or even a few weeks? And, of course, none of this is certain as Cuomo has still made no formal declaration. The former governor stands to lose it all if a run for mayor ends in anything but his residence in Gracie Mansion. As much as Cuomo appears to be weathering his scandals as he prepares to launch a comeback, he still needs to make sure voters truly believe it’s warranted once the behind-the-scenes games end.