Marc Molinaro shifts to the right

For years, Republican Rep. Marc Molinaro’s career in the Hudson Valley was defined by a common-sense approach to policy and a friendly demeanor, noted by supporters and opponents alike. But as he nears a rematch with Democrat Josh Riley – his third tight congressional race in as many years – he has embraced a coarser version of conservative politics more in line with Donald Trump’s MAGA brand. For some who have observed his political trajectory, it seems clear that this isn’t the same old Marc.

Molinaro first appeared on the radar of average New Yorkers and political observers in 1994, when he became the youngest mayor in American history, running the village of Tivoli as a teenager. From there, he moved up to the Dutchess County Legislature and then the Assembly. He spent over a decade as Dutchess County executive, which included a failed campaign for governor against then-Gov. Andrew Cuomo in 2018. Then he turned his eyes to Washington, D.C., running in a special election to replace Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado in the 19th Congressional District.

The U.S. Supreme Court’s landmark Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization decision didn’t do his ill-fated special election run any favors against Pat Ryan, but when he ran again in the redrawn district that fall, he managed a close victory over Riley. While swing district politics aren’t known for being tame affairs, bad blood appears to have lingered between the two – and their grudge match this year has occasionally turned ugly.

In recent months, Molinaro’s mannerisms and rhetoric have even drawn concerns from members of his own party. The most glaring example may be the pets debacle. Last month, Molinaro parroted a debunked right-wing conspiracy theory that Haitian immigrants in Springfield, Ohio, had been eating pets, which he tied into his regular attack that Riley supported migrants’ illegal entry into the country during his time working as counsel for the U.S. Senate. A Republican criticizing the outcome of Democrats’ immigration policy isn’t remarkable, but a New York Republican leaning on debunked rumors and repeatedly doubling down in the face of pushback is. Even Rep. Mike Lawler, one of Molinaro’s fellow Republicans in the New York delegation, obliquely criticized Molinaro, releasing a statement warning his colleagues to “exercise great restraint when spreading unfounded theories and claims based off of posts on Facebook.”

Then there was the House speaker race – after California Rep. Kevin McCarthy lost his speakership in October due to far-right members of Congress reneging on their support, Molinaro and House Republicans found themselves voting for days in search of a speaker. Molinaro voted twice for Rep. Jim Jordan of Ohio – the inaugural chair of the House Freedom Caucus, a collection of lawmakers dedicated to pushing the party further to the ideological right – before he joined other members of New York’s Republican delegation in voting for former Rep. Lee Zeldin.

When asked what led to the decision, he reverted to a pragmatic position that the government simply needed to function and a speaker, any speaker, would do if it meant his district’s needs were represented. He told reporters that “I think most of the people I represent wouldn’t know the speaker of the House if they backed over them with a pickup truck, and I hope that they don’t.”

But what seemed like a one-off flirtation with the right flank wasn’t just that. Molinaro has invited far-right members of Congress to campaign alongside him in New York. Jordan joined him in Broome County for a campaign event in late August, while Rep. Steve Scalise, who has been linked to white supremacist organizations, helped him fundraise in late September.

Molinaro said he needs to work with all kinds of politicians, including far-right figures, in order to properly work on behalf of his constituents. If he can get Jordan to appear in front of 600 Republicans in his district, he suggested, that’s an example of his dedicated public service as he tries to alert influential members of Congress to the issues impacting upstate New York.

“I work with Republicans and Democrats, and I don’t get to pick who Ohio, Georgia or San Francisco elects to office. I don’t. And so I work with Republicans and Democrats and that means, by the way, building coalitions to get stuff done,” Molinaro told City & State. “And I understand that Josh (Riley) doesn’t understand this, but I mean last night was three hours at the Problem Solvers Caucus, working with Republicans and Democrats, because it takes that. That’s a necessity. We have to put aside those partisan differences in order to get stuff done.”

Observers of the race and longtime followers of Molinaro’s career have had some trouble making heads or tails of his behavior. A GOP strategist with knowledge of the campaign said that Molinaro seems caught between being the steadfast problem-solver he has been for most of his career, the bulk of which was spent in leadership roles, and life as just another legislator in a polarized and divisive legislative body.

“It’s easy to say, ‘Marc, just be who you are and go be that person of compromise’ and then unfortunately, the dynamic is you run the risk of not having that rabid base behind you, and you run the risk of not exciting the Republicans to come out,” the strategist said.

It’s a problem he didn’t have as Dutchess County executive, when he could focus on fixing problems in the county rather than trying to make sense of a fractured Congress where every vote risks becoming an attack ad as he spends half of each term campaigning and fundraising.

His ultimate path to victory may come down to appealing to middle-of-the-road voters while still holding on to his Republican base. Finding that middle path could be difficult with Molinaro’s statements mirroring the former president’s, especially on immigration policy.

Still, Molinaro’s former allies and even some of his old foes said that they have not seen a dramatic shift in his personality, which they still describe as “aggressively nice.” Former lieutenant governor candidate Julie Killian, Molinaro’s running mate in 2018, said that the Molinaro she sees now is the same one she remembers campaigning with against Cuomo. She argued that Republicans have a hard time in the state and to suggest that there was some sort of shift within Molinaro was ridiculous.

Killian remembered how Molinaro once befriended a young man with special needs named Bobby on the campaign trail. She said the two have stayed in touch, a sign of Molinaro’s character. “When Marc won his congressional seat, he invited Bobby to come to his office on Inauguration Day. Bobby’s parents live near D.C.,” Killian said. “None of us are in his district,” she added. “He did it because he knows how much it meant to Bobby partly because he understands as he has a child on the spectrum and because he is a good person.”

Molinaro rejected the idea that he has changed his personality to better appeal to the MAGA crowd. He argued that it is the political landscape that shifted, not Tivoli’s teenage mayor. “It’s not a calculated way of presenting oneself,” he said. “The climate and the issues change.”